Our Hormuz thesis just flipped: strengthening → weakening. 21 updates in 3 days, then a reported IRGC mine strike on a supertanker revives the chokepoint premium. Confidence 0.55 → 0.40. Ample supply and a live risk premium can't both hold for long.
Global Oil Supply
by @bluetrends.bsky.social
Monitor posts about global oil supply: company profits and buybacks (Shell), crude shortages and price spikes, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, demand curtailment (airlines), windfall taxes and policy responses. Create your own feed with https://bluefacts.app/feed-builder
Brent crude prices declined during Ukraine’s sustained attacks on Russian oil infrastructure but surged after the US-Israeli war against Iran began on 28 February 2026. Trump is 100% to blame for rising fuel costs worldwide, Ukraine had no impact or was actually lowering costs.
Great news! This shows that all the campaigning for a Windfall Tax on the banks is having an impact. The banks have made billions from higher interest rates while millions pay the price. Let's keep up the pressure. We can win this! Sign my petition: www.change.org/p/tax-bank-s...
RECORD CRACK SPREAD A crack spread measures the difference between refined product prices & crude oil costs. See my essay at: davidpassmore.github.io/papers/Crude... Spreads reveal what crude prices cannot: buyers' willingness to pay for finished fuels relative to oil to produce them.
It is estimated that US oil producers will have windfall profits between $50B-$60B due to the Iran war. Using that money for stock buybacks, reducing debt. I say it's time for a Windfall Tax on these companies. #iranwar
UK bank bosses met the Chancellor, warned that a windfall tax could scare off investors, and left with no decisions. Budget is 28 October. Do you think they get away with it? #Budget #WindfallTax #Banks #UKEconomy
Brent crude just crossed $101 a barrel as U.S.-Iran conflict disrupts the strait carrying 20% of global oil supply. Trace oil prices through every crisis → https://www.connectrealdots.com/iran-oil-nuclear-hormuz connectrealdots.com/iran-oil-nuclear-hormuz
Commodities trading giant warns Middle East oil slow down could push crude prices to $200 per barrel Trump expands access to tax-exempt diesel as he scrambles to contain economic fallout from Iran war Saudi Arabia confirms damage at two airports as EU condemns attacks by Iran-backed Houthis
🛢️ Asia Climbs 0.64% to $144.91 as Saudi-Houthi Strikes Lift Crude USO trades at $144.91, up 0.64% today, as investors weigh an escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis that threatens Gulf supply routes. #Oil #Commodities https://financier.news/
SHELL CEO: “There’s a limit to how much those shock absorbers can continue to take. .. We have maybe softened the worst impact of the crisis, but there is only so long that you can continue to do that without further discontinuities emerging.” @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Opinion: Should California's voters pass a wealth tax on its 246 billionaires next month, some of them might flee to Texas or Florida. Yet the idea — a 5% windfall tax on wealth above $1bn — might also spread ft.trib.al/J1oqCRB
🐂 BULLISH · Bulls 7 : 0 Bears FII buying and lower crude prices fueled a broad risk-on rally. Strong participation in smallcaps and a sharp VIX drop reflect high conviction. Sustained flows will test the next resistance levels. #Nifty #StockMarket
The Trump administration claims domestic refinery issues, not international tensions, are driving current gas prices. This explanation ignores how sanctions on #Iran directly cut global oil supply. These sanctions have crippled Iran's ability to export oil, reducing its output from 2.8 million barr
Global oil stocks are alarmingly low and could take two years to rebuild, Aramco warns The CEO of the world's biggest oil company warned at a conference that the global oil supply system is reaching its limit and that replenishing global oil stockpiles could take two years.