Peterson Institute for International Economics

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The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a nonpartisan, independent research institution devoted to studying international economic policy. Explore our research: piie.com

The language of section 338 is straightforward and without qualifications, other than that discrimination, compared to treatment given to the products of other countries, must be found: “The President when he finds that the public interest will be served shall by proclamation specify and declare new or additional duties. . .upon . . . products of any foreign country whenever he shall find as a fact that such country . . . discriminates in fact against the commerce of the United States, directly or indirectly, . . . in such manner as to place the commerce of the United States at a disadvantage compared with the commerce of any foreign country.”
⁉️ What is Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, the newest tariff authority the Trump administration is using to impose 50% tariffs on Canada? ➡️ Section 338 has not been invoked in 100 years & requires strong proof of discrimination against American goods. ➡️ It was designed as a retaliatory tool specifically to counter discrimination against US trade by other countries... ...such as when an importing country treated US products less favorably than the products of other countries. 💡 Section 338 can only be used in circumstances where a trading partner provides differential treatment for US goods that is detrimental to the US product & grants more favorable treatment to other countries. 🍁 The Trump administration claims Canada discriminates against American exports of cars, alcohol, & dairy. 🍻 Note that for alcohol, it is most Canadian provinces & territories, not the federal government, that have halted the purchase, distribution, or retailing of US alcoholic beverages. 🐄 In past hashtag#USMCA negotiations, the Trump administration secured tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) for 14 Canadian dairy products, which allow a specified amount of a dairy product to be imported at a lower tariff rate, while imposing a higher tariff on imports beyond that threshold. 🥛 The US enjoys an average annual trade surplus in dairy products with Canada of around $600 million since 2021. 🟢 Even products covered by the USMCA could be subject to the Section 338 tariffs. 🔴 But Canadian energy products, potash, fish, critical minerals, & some other products are exempted from the Section 338 tariffs. 📅 The tariffs on Canada are set to take effect on August 19. ⚖️ Courts would be rightly skeptical of a sudden finding of massive discrimination that warrants anything like reimposition of Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs.
Trump-voting states are at highest risk for export losses if the USMCA ends
China's manufacturing export strength is curbing poorer countries' opportunities to industrialize
Trump-voting states are at highest risk for export losses if the USMCA ends
US "reciprocal" trade deals are designed to constrain China to varying degrees
Higher energy prices due to the Middle East war would slow economic growth globally, particularly in emerging markets
How to Win a Trade War An Optimistic Guide to an Anxious Global Economy By Soumaya Keynes and Chad P Bown
Fentanyl deaths started declining before Trump's tariffs in second term, as drug purity was worsening a. Number of overdose deaths, in thousands, by administration, 2019–25
Urban counties returned to slow growth in 2025
War, uncertainty slow 2026 growth across advanced and emerging economies
The realities of economic security PIIE spring meetings
PIIE spring meetings Coming up in April 2026 | Watch at piie.com/events - Thursday, April 9 | 1PM Global Economic Prospects: Spring 2026 Karen Dynan (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Jed Kolko (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) - Tuesday, April 14 | 11AM PIIE Insider LIVE: Olivier Blanchard on Eurobonds and optimism for Europe’s future Olivier Blanchard (PIIE), Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE) - Wednesday, April 15 | 9AM Trade 360 degrees: Trade Winds LIVE from DC! Chad P. Bown (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (Special Advisor, Indonesia), Adam S. Posen (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Cecilia Malmström (PIIE) 1PM Central banking for open economies in a changed world Anna Breman (Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand), José Luis Escrivá (Governor, Bank of Spain), Chang Yong Rhee (Governor, Bank of Korea), Martin Schlegel (Chairman of the Government Board, Swiss National Bank), Patrick Honohan (PIIE) 3PM The realities of economic security Cullen S. Hendrix (PIIE), Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Warwick J. McKibbin (PIIE), Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE) Thursday, April 16 | 9AM The future economic architecture of the eurozone Olivier Blanchard (PIIE), Carlos Cuerpo (First Vice President and Minister of Economy, Trade and Business, Spain), Isbel Schnabel (Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank), Ángel Ubide (Citadel), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) 1PM AI and the imminent transformation of work: New dimensions and analyses Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Jed Kolko (PIIE), Anton Korinek (PIIE), Fabien Curto Millet (Google), Caroline Atkinson (RockCreek) 3PM International imbalances again? Still? Forever? Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Hélène Rey (London Business School), Alan Taylor (Bank of England), Isabel Vansteenkist (European Central Bank), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) Friday, April 17 | 9AM Decentering the dollar: A conversation Klass Knot (PIIE, Former Governor, De Nederlandsche Bank; Former Chair, Financial Stability Board), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
Peterson Institute @PIIE at 10:25 AM on April 2, 2026 tbt quote tweeting @PIIE on April 2, 2025 reminder that the experts learned about the new tariff rates the same time you did. pls be nice to us, we are analyzing as fast as we can
The Trump administration wants foreign investment pledges to boost several sectors that Biden targeted
US exports to China fell after Trump launched his second trade war in 2025
PIIE Insider
Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs heavily penalize countries that use more imported inputs
The Trump administration wants foreign investment pledges to boost several sectors that Biden targeted
Conference The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Conference on distilling lessons from the COVID era February 6, 2026 PIIE
Some countries will struggle to fulfill their investment pledges to President Trump
China’s private-sector rebound continued in 2025, fueled by “new economy”
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart
PIIE Insider
Figure 3 Can Trump's tariff revenues help pay for the federal budget deficit? Cumulative tariff revenue, Jan–Sep 2025 $178,821,673,016 Federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2025 $1,865,000,000,000 #PIIECharts Learn more at piie.com/research/piie-charts PIIE Notes: Cumulative tariff revenue is the total of monthly calculated duties estimated by USITC since January 2025. Source: Congressional Budget Office.
Trump's tariff relief on groceries and food products $35 saving per US household annually
Figure 3 Can Trump's tariff revenues help pay for the federal budget deficit? Cumulative tariff revenue, Jan–Aug 2025 $149,281,378,669 Federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2025 $1,865,000,000,000 #PIIECharts Learn more at piie.com/research/piie-charts Notes: Cumulative tariff revenue is the total of monthly calculated duties estimated by USITC since January 2025. Source: Congressional Budget Office.
Trump's tariff relief for certain food and agricultural products averages $35 per US household Total annual tariff reduction: $4.6 billion Average savings per US household: $35
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart Last updated November 10, 2025
A Sixth of Humanity: Independent India’s Development Odyssey by Devesh Kapur and Arvind Subramanian (HarperCollins) In this compelling book, Kapur, a distinguished political scientist, and Subramanian, former chief economic adviser to the Indian government, analyse India’s modern history. They note that after independence in 1947 India “embarked on four major development transformations: rebuilding the State, forging a nation, developing the economy and reconstructing society . . . Crucially, this was to be undertaken under . . . universal franchise-based democracy.” This was a colossal undertaking. How did it do? My answer would be “far better than it might have and not as well as it could have ”. To work out your answer, read this book.
PIIE Insider LIVE November 20, 11-11:30 AM ET Register at piie.com/events The US-China AI race Featuring Martin Chorzempa Senior Fellow, PIIE Hosted by Anjali V. Bhatt Communications Manager and Research Fellow, PIIE
The US imported a larger amount of goods in the first half of 2025, but less from China and more from the EU and Mexico
The US imported a larger amount of goods in the first half of 2025, but less from China and more from the EU and Mexico
China did not buy any of the extra $200 billion of US exports under Trump's trade deal
Argentina needs dollars to keep the value of its currency within a specified range
US imports have been higher this year through July compared with 2024
PIIE Fall Meetings Coming up in October 2025 | Watching at piie.com/events -- October 8 | 1:00 PM EDT China’s economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Yeling Tan (PIIE) -- October 9 | 1:00 PM EDT Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025 Karen Dynan (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 14 | 3:00 PM EDT PIIE Insider LIVE: Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) -- October 15 | 9:00 AM EDT Trade Winds: How is the world adjusting to a new trading landscape? Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (National Economic Council; PIIE), Hector Torres (Centre for International Governance Innovation) -- October 16 9:00 AM EDT The changing dollar regime: An update Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) 1:30 PM EDT Canada’s economic outlook and global trade: A conversation with Governor Tiff Macklem Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 17 | 1:00 PM EDT Europe in a changing international monetary system Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (Banque de France), Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank; Financial Stability Board), Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland), Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC)
US employment would be lower than otherwise in five sectors under US tariffs as of September 11, 2025
Most large, advanced economies face slower GDP growth next year, while China and India withstand tariff drag
Why the inflation impact of deportation has been lagged If 1 million+ migrants have left, how has production stayed up? No increase in native or legal employment in the sectors which are known to be heavy users of migrant labor What is going on? McKibbin, Noland, and Hogan (2024) says impact should be big and stagflationary Substitution of K or L not there in the data Mismeasurement of net migrant outflows? Over-counting/claims of total deported? Or workers and families take time to make up their minds on a wrenching decision Not sure that ICE really will come for them Head underground but keep working Employers do not have to pay more or invest – in fact can end up paying less Difficult to decide when to leave
The New China Shock is on Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs) High and rising imports of low-skilled products from China Magnitude and pace of China shock much greater than for rich countries
US business investment continues to grow, but only because of AI-related categories
Most large, advanced economies face slower GDP growth next year, while China and India withstand tariff drag
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/4eefc53c-de68-4495-b729-b028916dd645 Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute agrees that gold buyers’ are not primarily motivated by inflation:  Gold prices are being driven primarily by retail investors, enemy regimes (Russia and Iran), and some speculators. It is primarily driven by investors who fundamentally distrust the US government and fiat money. Not just inflation. In fact, gold’s value (like crypto) to these people is in large part due to being uncorrelated with US macro and government (so not US inflation and the Fed).
Promised US assistance appears aimed at helping keep Argentine peso's value within a specified range
PIIE Fall Meetings Coming up in October 2025 | Watching at piie.com/events -- October 8 | 1:00 PM EDT China’s economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Yeling Tan (PIIE) -- October 9 | 1:00 PM EDT Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025 Karen Dynan (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 14 | 3:00 PM EDT PIIE Insider LIVE: Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) -- October 15 | 9:00 AM EDT Trade Winds: How is the world adjusting to a new trading landscape? Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (National Economic Council; PIIE), Hector Torres (Centre for International Governance Innovation) -- October 16 9:00 AM EDT The changing dollar regime: An update Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) 1:30 PM EDT Canada’s economic outlook and global trade: A conversation with Governor Tiff Macklem Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 17 | 1:00 PM EDT Europe in a changing international monetary system Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (Banque de France), Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank; Financial Stability Board), Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland), Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC)
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart Last updated September 25, 2025
PIIE Fall Meetings Coming up in October 2025 | Watching at piie.com/events -- October 8 | 1:00 PM EDT China’s economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Yeling Tan (PIIE) -- October 9 | 1:00 PM EDT Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025 Karen Dynan (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 14 | 3:00 PM EDT PIIE Insider LIVE: Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) -- October 15 | 9:00 AM EDT Trade Winds: How is the world adjusting to a new trading landscape? Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (National Economic Council; PIIE), Hector Torres (Centre for International Governance Innovation) -- October 16 9:00 AM EDT The changing dollar regime: An update Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) 1:30 PM EDT Canada’s economic outlook and global trade: A conversation with Governor Tiff Macklem Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 17 | 1:00 PM EDT Europe in a changing international monetary system Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank; Financial Stability Board), Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland), Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC)
What will constitute the $350bn investment is contested. Here is Marcus Noland of the Peterson Institute for International Economics: Originally, Korea thought it could count investment guarantees and things like that as part of the $350bn — such as the battery factory down in Georgia, some investment guarantees or some loans from the state bank — and count that. But the US has now come back and said it wants equity; and not only does it want equity, it wants equity that will be controlled by the White House and it will not necessarily be invested in Korean firms; the US just invests it any way they want . . . it’s a bizarre idea
Erosion of Fed independence would slow US economic growth and boost inflation over time
Erosion of Fed independence would slow US economic growth and boost inflation over time
Erosion of Fed independence would slow US economic growth and boost inflation over time