Born to farm, forced to wrangle raccoons

@agroforest.bsky.social

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Retired lawyer. Roadie. Cat colony guardian. Turning a Christmas tree farm in the Driftless Area into a food forest.

A balding Trump in profile looking immensely fat with many, many chins, his suitcoat straining to contain his bulk and (guessing) two colostomy bags
Two incidents have been reported in the Red Sea. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre said a ship was targeted 70 nautical miles off the Saudi coast, causing a fire on board. There is no mention of casualties among the crew. The Houthis meanwhile claimed a major operation against two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. One is called ‘Encelia’ and the other is called ‘Layla’. The Houthis said they targeted those two tankers with a number of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones at the same time, causing huge balls of fire on board those ships and devastation of course. The Houthis framed the attack as part of a tit-for-tat campaign against Saudi Arabia. They’re calling it a “siege-for-siege.” They said it has been 12 years since Saudi Arabia has been imposing a siege on the Yemeni people, and that it is now time for Yemen and the Houthis to respond in kind. This causes a major disruption to supply lines – this time not in the Strait of Hormuz, but in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another key route for global energy supplies.
UKMTO reports that a tanker has been struck off Saudi Arabia The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) says it has received reports that a tanker has been struck by an unknown projectile. The incident has occured 70 nautical miles from Saudi Arabia’s Al Shuqaiq. UKMTO said that the projectile has caused a fire on the vessel, which the crew are currently fighting. There are no reports of any casualties.
Iranian army says it hit bases in Jordan, with damage inflicted F-15 warplanes, drone preparation infrastructure and a helicopter storage facility at Prince Hassan and King Faisal bases in Jordan have been targeted, according to a statement. Eight new MQ-9 drones were destroyed and two others “severely damaged” in the attack, the IRNA news agency reported. Two US helicopters were damaged in the strike on the storage facility, the army claimed.
Shipping companies should not load or discharge cargo at Saudi Arabian ports, as such activity may result in being targeted “in any location” by Yemen’s Houthi movement, according to an email sent to companies by the Houthis. “Vessels are banned from loading or discharging cargo at or from any Saudi ports,” the July 20 email said, which was received by multiple shipping companies. “We strongly recommend that your company exercise due diligence and the utmost care in all its dealings,” according to the email, which was sent to multiple companies in the industry and seen by Reuters. “Any such activity would expose the violating vessels to sanctions. Furthermore, they may be subject to targeting in any location within the operational reach of the Yemeni Armed Forces,” according to the email, which was sent by the Houthis’ Sanaa-based Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center.
Oats: Right now the United States imports about 80 million bushels of oats per year from Canada (6). The U.S. also imports oats from as far away as Finland, if you can believe it. As much as 75% of those imported Canadian oats (60 million bushels) come right here to Iowa, to the Quaker plant in Cedar Rapids. Iowa is a good place to grow oats: average oat yield in Iowa last year was 92 bushels per acre. 60 million bushels divided by 92 bushels per acre amounts to 650,000 more oat acres in Iowa. (Yes the whiners and whatabouters harangue me about quality, profitability, test weight and a dozen other reasons why this can’t be done. My answer: talk to an Iowa farmer currently growing oats. It can be done). Oats also provide soil health and pest benefits that make the corn and soybean cycles of an extended crop rotation more profitable. Pasture: We have a little over 1 million beef cattle ‘on feed’ in Iowa. This means they’re in a confinement of some sort—often feedlots. A cow-calf pair needs about 2.5 acres of pasture in Iowa. So theoretically, we could use 2.5 million acres of corn ground for pasture. Hogs and chickens can also be grazed. Fruits and vegetables: In the U.S., about 16 acres of fruits and vegetables are needed per 1000 people. In Iowa we have about 2.2 acres per thousand people (7), so we import the vast majority of what we eat from elsewhere. About 50,000 acres of current corn ground converted to such production would provide us with what we could eat and leave some for export. Of course we would still import some fruit and vegetables in the winter. Perennial crops: This could include grains like kernza and others. Also switchgrass grown for bioenergy/biofuel production (3). Fiber crops: Hemp is the best example. Others. Tree nuts, trees grown for lumber, wheat, barley.
CENTCOM says US service member killed in Iraq The US CENTCOM says a “US service member in northern Iraq was killed in action July 18 during a controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian one-way attack drone”. This comes after two US soldiers were killed and one missing by an Iranian attack on Jordan. “After a thorough search, US military personnel found unidentified remains at the location earlier today. An examination process to verify the remains is ongoing.”
A tryptic of Sheinbaum in a pink top, Trump and Carney in blue suits.
AirNow map showing that the station monitor near Black River Falls shows PM 2.5 at 235 - very unhealthy.
Suspected US attack on Iran bridge: Fars news agency Iran’s Fars news agency is reporting a suspected US attack on a bridge in Iran’s Bandar-e Khamir region. The attack happened at 11pm local time (19:30 GMT), according to Fars. It said the bridge is a vital link connecting Bandar Abbas and Lar.
AirNow Interactive map showing a portion of Wisconsin's Driftless with absolutely horrific air quality. From the Mississippi River to Black River Falls and beyond, the particulate score is 329. North and south of the band of the worst air is air scoring 261, so hey, pretty good, I guess.
A raccoon mother and her three offspring are eating my cats' food in broad daylight.
The president said that he simply got a call from Gulf rulers who promised to make a huge investment in the US that would be better for the American people. Exactly how much, who, where, what, none of that has been specified. But when it comes to this Trump administration, he often talks about numbers of foreign investments with very little detail, and outside groups say the numbers tend to be exaggerated.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says the US resumption of fighting with Iran “does not lead to a resolution” and “closes the door” to peace negotiations. “It’s sad because civilian infrastructure is getting damaged in Iran and in the Gulf Cooperation Council states. It’s not leading to anything good,” Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported. Lavrov criticised the failure by the United States to implement foreign agreements and raised questions about Washington’s credibility when making commitments, Iran’s IRIB news agency cited him as saying.
Their stealthy trade helped prevent oil prices rocketing toward the $200-a-barrel levels feared at the outset of the war, and enabled the UAE to boost production to a record above 4 million barrels a day last month. The latest attack exposes a particular vulnerability of the wartime oil supply chain, as the Mombasa B was on hire under a time-charter arrangement from tanker owner Sinokor Group. The firm has been a critical mover of Emirati cargoes — in the process making millions for Ga-Hyun Chung, the intensely private Korean shipping tycoon at its center. If Sinokor’s willingness to shoulder the risk of ferrying those barrels frays, then a key pillar in moving Middle East crude to international buyers frays too. In the short term, world markets have been cushioned by a burst of supply from the Gulf and depressed buying from China. That’s left Asia awash in crude, and compelled Saudi Arabia to offer price discounts for the first time in six years. But Brent futures have already soared back above $85 a barrel and Middle East markets are strengthening. A hit to the crucial network of shuttlers stands to bolster that rally. —Grant Smith, Bloomberg
For the past few months, tanker shuttle runs have constituted a lifeline in getting Persian Gulf oil to the world. That escape route just suffered a blow. Two vessels linked to the United Arab Emirates were hit by projectiles while crossing the Strait of Hormuz today as the interim peace deal between the US and Iran effectively collapsed. The UAE’s Defense Ministry said they were targeted by Iranian cruise missiles. The ships — the Al Bahyah and Mombasa B — are part of a fleet of shuttle tankers employed by the UAE and some of its neighbors to keep exports flowing since Iran declared Hormuz closed at the start of the war in February. After collecting cargoes at Emirati ports such as Das Island or Zirku, the vessels sail through the chokepoint with their transponders switched off to avoid detection. Once through, they typically transfer their cargoes to clients’ tankers in safer waters off Fujairah or Sohar, or travel on to India’s west coast. MUSCAT, OMAN - JUNE 22: (EDITOR'S NOTE: Alternate crop of 2282803195) Crude oil tankers, bulk carriers and vessels sit anchored around Qaboos Port on June 22, 2026 in Muscat, Oman. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for the region's oil and gas, was effectively blockaded since the outbreak of war between the United States and Iran in late February. This week's provisional peace deal between the countries was meant to reopen the waterway to shipping traffic, but the pace of that reopening is unclear amid continued fighting in Lebanon and the need to clear the Strait of sea mines. On Sunday, U.S. Vice President JD Vance arrived in Switzerland for high-level talks with the Iranian delegation, as the two sides seek to clarify the terms of ending the war. Their stealthy trade helped prevent oil prices rocketing toward the $200-a-barrel levels feared at the outset of the war, and enabled the UAE to boost production to a record above 4 million barrels a day last month.
‘This war is a disaster,’ Omani foreign minister says Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi says the war on Iran “has achieved none of its officially assigned objectives” and lacks a UN mandate. “This war is a disaster,” he wrote in an opinion piece published in the French newspaper Le Monde. The minister added: “Nevertheless, if it finally buries the myth of containment in the Gulf, then there is reason for hope: the emergence of a fairer, more realistic and more effective system, thus correcting nearly half a century of strategic errors.” For him, the most serious threats to the region do not come from Tehran but from Tel Aviv, he said.
Iran says it targeted ‘hostile’ US vessel with cruise missiles Iran’s navy fired cruise missiles at a “hostile vessel of the American enemy”, according to Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB quoting an unnamed military source. IRIB reported attacks across the region including on Gulf Arab states as the US said it will start blockading Iranian ports from 20:00 GMT on Tuesday.
However, any new fee threatens to raise fuel costs. A 20% charge would work out to about $32 million for a fully-loaded very large crude carrier at current oil prices. That’s far higher than the tolls that have been charged by Iran, which have previously been described as reaching $2 million by people familiar with the situation. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical conduit for energy and other commodities, having provided passage for about a fifth of the world’s oil flows before the US and Israel began strikes on Iran in late February. Iran’s efforts to close the waterway during the war pushed up energy prices globally and created political blowback for Trump. Trump celebrated the interim peace pact by touting the potential impact on gasoline prices and the economy, an acknowledgement to just how eager he is to put the conflict behind him.
No prior year in the 45-year record has been anywhere near this warm this early: not 1997 (+1.6C at this date), the previous benchmark for an explosive onset, and not 2015 (+1.3C). And El Niño almost always peaks near the end of the calendar year – typically between November and January, occasionally as early as October – so the physics of ENSO’s seasonal phase-locking says there is likely a good deal of intensification still to come.3 What does all this mean for global temperatures? Because global temperature lags ENSO by around three to five months, most of this event’s warming will land in 2027, which is now shaping up to be a genuinely alarming year and the warmest on record by a sizable margin. But a strengthening El Niño does load the dice for late 2026: our dashboard currently gives this year a non-trivial chance (~28%) of edging out 2024 as the warmest on record, up from ~13% at the start of the month.
The US launched its third round of strikes on Iran this week as Tehran declared that it’s closing the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice.” US Central Command said that President Donald Trump ordered the fresh strikes, which targeted Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels, after Iranian forces attacked a Cyprus-flagged container ship. Iran’s state-run media reported explosions at multiple areas along the country’s southern coasts, including the energy and petrochemical hubs of Bushehr and Asalouyeh. Blasts were also reported at the port cities of Bandar Abbas and Bandar-e Dayyer, as well as the Sirik area near the Strait of Hormuz. “Iran made a poor choice,” Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said on social media. “Now they pay.”
Meanwhile, Iran’s supreme leader is promising revenge for the assassination of his father. The situation is extremely complicated and definitely this kind of statement is complicating matters further as it is adding a personal element into this already complicated equation. Just to understand, the sentiment in Iran during the week-long funeral procession of the late supreme leader, the main theme was revenge. Revenge and anger are prevailing. Iranians are saying, well, if you are killing our leaders, then we also have the right to kill your leaders.
Iran rejected US President Donald Trump’s contention that peace talks could continue without a ceasefire, saying Washington must meet Tehran’s conditions for resolving transit issues through the Strait of Hormuz and normalizing its oil exports. While Trump said he wanted to continue talks, he also threatened late Friday to shower Iran with “1000 Missiles” if it acted on a threat to kill the US leader, “in this case, ME!” In a social media post, he cited calls to kill him that were made at the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after Israel reportedly informed Trump of an Iranian assassination plot. The Iranian authorities want the US to implement “agreed-upon understandings” before any talks take place, the semi-official Fars news agency reported on Saturday, citing an informed source it didn’t identify. The comments came hours after the US demanded that Iran publicly declare all channels of the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping and pledge not to attack civilian vessels transiting the waterway. Tehran will face consequences if it fails to deliver the public assurance, senior Trump administration officials told reporters on condition of anonymity. The developments followed several nights of US airstrikes and Iranian retaliation that sent oil prices higher this week and raised doubts about further talks toward a broader peace deal. Trump earlier on Friday said he considers the ceasefire agreed with Tehran in mid-June to be over.
For instance, it is clear that Trump is desperate for some Iranian concession, any will do, on the nuclear question. He is desperate to be able to say to the American people that he has made Iran back down on nukes. However, Iran is simply not playing ball. For instance, two weeks ago the US said that international inspectors would soon be allowed to visit Iranian nuclear sites. The Iranians responded by rejecting these reports and said that no one would be allowed in until after a final agreement had been reached. The issue of Iranian-charged tolls in the Strait is just as striking. In some ways Iran has already won this fight. The MOU accepts that Iran controls the Strait. However, the Iranian state is moving swiftly now to establish its ability to charge tolls, not even giving Trump a short breathing space to lie about a non-existent win. The Iranian attacks on tankers which precipitated this present bombing came about, it seems, because some ships were not taking the Iranian controlled route through the Strait but instead were using the Omani one. In other words, Iran wants this now and does not care about US politics. Note: The US Government has gone very quiet on the toll question, as if they understand that Iran will give them no wiggle room. The last mention I can see of the US position is over a week ago (July 1—2). If the Iranians will not give Trump even the style of some success in the talks, they are demanding their goodies up front to even proceed with the talks. For instance, the Iranians seem to be digging in their heels on the unfreezing of their assets. They say they were promised that and they will not go ahead with the negotiations and have a final agreement until after they get more of their money. It is hard to see a few nights of pointless bombing by the US changing this basic reality. The US does not have the strength and the Iranians know it. Trump raging and insulting the Iranians does not make a difference.
US revokes general license authorising sale of Iranian oil The US Treasury Department has revoked the general licence that authorised the sale of Iranian oil, according to a statement issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control. “Effective July 7, 2026, General License X, dated June 21, 2026, is revoked and superseded in its entirety by General License X1,” the statement reads. The US had partially lifted sanctions on Iranian oil exports following “encouraging” talks over ending the war, following which the US Treasury had issued a 60-day sanctions waiver in June, paving the way for the production, delivery and sale of Iranian oil to the US. The Reuters news agency quoted unnamed US officials as saying that Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz were “wholly unacceptable to the United States and will be met with consequences”. This comes after three tankers were reportedly attacked in the strait in the last 24 hours.
THE NETHERLANDS CAN NO LONGER PROVIDE ASSISTANCE TO UKRAINE: When asked about providing more Patriot missiles to Ukraine, Dutch Defense Minister Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius said that the Netherlands cannot provide direct military support to Ukraine anymore. She added that Dutch officials will work to encourage other states to continue supporting Ukraine, but said that the Netherlands has “done so much [for Ukraine]…we are at our limit.” Throughout the full-scale invasion, the Netherlands has provided $10.4 billion in military aid to Ukraine and plans to spend an additional $13.3 billion. Currently, the country has already allocated $1.14 billion for the PURL program, with which European allies fund U.S. weapons for Ukraine.
Trump standing in front of a bunch of portly white guys dressed identically in what look like Custer-era calvary uniforms - blue chambray shirts, khaki canvass(?) trousers with khaki suspenders, whiteish cavalry hats.
It is probably the most bizarre use of military force in US history. What we are seeing is strategically useless, wastes ammunition of which the US is already running short, and reinforces the idea that the USA is weakening and aimless. This is the message US partners are taking not only in the region but around the world. In other words, it is the use of American military power to make things worse for the USA. US partners in the region are indeed getting this message loud and clear, and are already trying to carve out a better relationship with Iran—knowing that the US is in no shape to protect them. In many ways the region is already preparing for a post-American future.
President Donald Trump reported earning at least $1.4 billion in 2025 from crypto and memecoin-related businesses, according to his latest annual financial disclosure. Trump reported making more than $594 million from sales by World Liberty Financial, the crypto firm whose co-founders include Trump, his sons, and Steven Witkoff, a top diplomat in his administration. Zach Witkoff, the special envoy’s son, serves as chief executive officer. CIC Digital LLC, Trump’s memecoin business, generated $636 million in income. Almost all of it came in the form of royalties from a license agreement with Celebration Coins. CIC Digital also held various cryptocurrencies in digital wallets worth at least $60 million. He also made nearly $197 million from an equity sale of Stablecoin Holdco.
China has resumed buying US soybeans, although the pace and scale of purchases risks falling short of the pledges made last year. Chinese buyers have so far committed to 200,000 tons of US beans for the marketing year that begins in September, with another 1.5 million tons earmarked for unknown destinations, according to the US Department of Agriculture. If history’s any guide, a large portion of those sales without designated buyers will also end up in China. The target is at least 25 million tons, which the White House has said will be bought each year from 2026 through 2028 as part of the trade reset agreed between the two nations in October. Beijing has never confirmed the amount, although it’s roughly similar to annual imports from the US before relations soured and purchases dried up.
Iranian supreme leader calls for prosecution of US-Israeli leaders for war crimes Iran’s supreme leader is calling for American and Israeli leaders to be tried for war crimes. Below is a summary of Mojtaba Khamenei’s statement on X: He described the pursuit of justice for crimes committed against Iran in 2025-26 as “one of the most important legal, judicial issues now affecting the Iranian nation”, pointing to violations by “international criminals, global arrogant powers and aggressors”. He highlighted harm inflicted on Iranians during the “imposed wars”, including “child killings and war crimes in Minab and Lamerd”, attacks on medical centres, and physical and psychological damage that must be prosecuted in domestic and international courts. He also cited the killing of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as among “thousands of major legal cases” requiring pursuit. “These criminals must be seized by the collar and brought to justice for their criminal deeds,” he said. Confessions and “brazen boasting” by leaders of the “US-Zionist enemy” amount to “indisputably an admission of crime”. The investigation of crimes from both wars has been “entrusted to the competent authorities” and will help “prevent the recurrence of such crimes”, he said.
"Huge defeat": Democrats left reeling after socialist "earthquake" in New York
SpaceX shares slipped for a third straight day, shedding hundreds of billions of dollars in market value, after the Elon Musk-led company said it is selling investment-grade bonds for the first time, part of what’s expected to be a massive borrowing spree to fund its artificial-intelligence ambitions. The stock fell 16% Monday to close at $154.60, the lowest level since the company’s first day of trading, pushing its three-day loss to 23% and erasing over $600 billion in value over that period. The company’s market capitalization now sits just above $2 trillion. “Sellers are back in control. Anyone in the world who wanted to buy this has bought it already,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading.
First Iranian oil exports in two months exit US blockade area The maritime tracking service TankerTrackers reports that two Iranian supertankers have successfully bypassed a two-month-old US Navy blockade, marking Iran’s first crude oil exports in two months. According to the tracking group’s statement on X, automated identification system data, corroborated by satellite imagery on June 15, 2026, confirmed that the National Iranian Tanker Company’s (NITC) supertankers, Diona and Hero 2, exited the US Navy blockade perimeter “carrying a combined total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil between them”. TankerTrackers also reported that a third NITC vessel, Stream, “is approaching the blockade line from the EEZ [exclusive economic zone] of Pakistan; where it spent the past 7 weeks waiting to enter Iran”.
Trump, alone, pale, eyes focused on the middle distance seeing nothing, silently repeating "algae" over and over again.
Ensuring the Strait of Hormuz is safe from mines could ⁠delay a return to normal shipping traffic by weeks ⁠following a deal to reopen the waterway, maritime security sources tell Reuters news agency. The operation by conventional minesweepers and state-of-the-art underwater drones could continue for 40 to 50 days before many insurance, shipping or oil companies are confident enough to sail through, according to assessments. That could potentially hold up tens of millions of barrels of oil. “We still consider it very risky for ships to commence transits at this point,” said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association BIMCO. “The threat of mines in the area remains a concern immediately as well as further down the line, and mine-free routes need to be established.”
NWS radar showing two heavy storms that just popped up to the west of D.C.
National Weather Service radar showing large storms west and southwest of D.C. The storms are headed ENE and the closest one is atop the Shenandoah National Park, 75 miles from D.C.
Contrary to some bizarre claims in the media, Iran in no way makes a commitment in this text to hand over its management or to restore the strait of Hormuz to the state before the military aggression of the US and Israel. The only point mentioned is the normalisation of transit through the strait of Hormuz upon the end of the war, the establishment of maritime security by the coastal states, the end of the illegal blockade, and the removal of threats to commercial shipping by the US and Israel. At Iran’s request, the US will have no role whatsoever in the future management of the strait of Hormuz. It has been made clear that the future administration of the strait will be based on an Iranian initiative and proposal, within the framework of a matter pertaining to the countries of the region. In this framework, discussions about the future of the strait of Hormuz will not take place even in negotiations after the signing of the agreement, and Tehran will directly resolve this issue in talks with Oman.
We now have more comments from Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, who, according to Iran’s IRNA news agency, said Iran has not made a final decision about a deal. Once the relevant authorities reach a conclusion on the details of the draft text of an agreement, Iran’s government will make a formal announcement, he added.
“Nothing has changed” despite Trump’s announcement he is cancelling strikes on Iran, Ali Akbar Dareini from the Center for Strategic Studies in Tehran, told Al Jazeera. “From the Iranian viewpoint, first the US needs to take confidence-building measures before any negotiations take place and before Iran is ready to even talk about the nuclear issue. “That has not happened. And on the ground realities are telling us that the Americans have taken no measures to de-escalate tensions. From the Iranian viewpoint, Iran does not give in to coercion. “So I have every reason not to trust what Trump says is a real development.”
Donald Trump has posted on Truth Social that he has “cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening.” “Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening,” Trump wrote. He continued “Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others. The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized — Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.”
Trump says he directed the US military “to execute a secret mission” to support oil tankers and other vessels through the critical Gulf waterway, claiming that more than 100 million barrels of oil is “making its way” through the Strait of Hormuz. “More than 200 Commercial Ships have safely traveled through the Strait,” he wrote on social media. The US president did not provide any evidence to back up his claims. He added that the US – “NOT Iran” – controls the strait.
The effective closure of the strait of Hormuz has led to global energy disruptions “never seen before”, said Wael Sawan, CEO of oil company Shell. Speaking at a summit of business leaders hosted by the Wall Street Journal, he said more than 10% of global oil production has been removed from the market since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran. He added that about 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) production is offline. When asked for his thoughts on the prospect of reopening the strait of Hormuz, he replied: “It’s very difficult to call. What is clear is that the nature of the disruption to the global energy system is something like we have never seen before.” He added that the blockade has been “particularly acute in Asia”, with countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand resorting to rationing fuel while Pakistan and the Philippines have implemented four-day working weeks. “It has been disproportionately painful in Asia,” Sawan said.
Fox News, citing a phone interview with the US president, reported Trump is “getting close to ordering new strikes against Iranian power plants and bridges” in response to Iran reportedly dragging its feet on the negotiating table. Bombing civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime. As Peter Beaumont writes in his analysis on the issue: Under article 52 of the first additional protocol to the Geneva conventions of 1977, “civilian objects”, such as infrastructure, are defined not in themselves but by what they are not: military objectives whose destruction offers no definite military advantage. At the heart of the question of what may – or may not – be attacked is the overarching principle of distinction between civilians and combatants. Rule 10 of the customary rules of international humanitarian law – relating to both international and internal armed conflicts – explicitly states: “Civilian objects are protected against attack, unless and for such time as they are military objectives. That places a requirement on all parties: attackers must avoid targeting civilian objects and the party under attack must avoid “mingling” the military and civilians. Codified in international law, the statute of the international criminal court makes it explicit that it is a war crime to intentionally direct attacks against civilian objects if they “are not military objectives”.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump has downplayed the downing of a US helicopter, saying it “wasn’t a big deal”. “The pilot is fine,” Trump said, adding that the details of the incident are “much different than you think”. He did not elaborate. The helicopter’s crew was receiving medical care and in stable condition. Earlier, Trump posted on his Truth Social account that the “United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack”.
Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz “cannot be considered to exist”, says Arsenio Dominguez, secretary-general of the International Maritime Organization. “I am increasingly concerned by reports that vessels continue to attempt to transit the Strait of Hormuz without any credible security guarantees. The current situation remains highly volatile, with no reliable security assurances in place. No commercial or operational consideration can justify exposing seafarers to such levels of danger. The protection of their lives must remain the overriding priority at all times,” he said in a statement. Iran has blocked off the Strait of Hormuz to ships from most countries following the start of US-Israeli attacks on February 28. The US then began its blockade of Iranian ports in early April.
Chris Wright, the US energy secretary, has said that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising “very meaningfully”, even as the waterway remains effectively closed by the Iranian authorities.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says Iran “will not only halt the path of negotiations, but we will also be in direct confrontation with the enemy” following Israel’s continued attacks on southern Lebanon and the capital Beirut. He also lashed out at the US and Israel, saying “they are neither committed to a ceasefire nor believe in dialogue and by demonstrating through the naval blockade and violation of agreements regarding Lebanon that they only understand the language of power”. In a post on X, Ghalibaf, who is also Iran’s main negotiator in talks with the US, added that “the naval blockade against the Iranian nation and America’s green light today to the Zionist regime turn American and regime bases and assets in the region into legitimate targets”.
Talks between the United States and Iran are moving backwards after US President Donald Trump walked back on commitments on several key items in a preliminary draft agreement, according to Mostafa Khoshcheshm, professor at the University of Applied Sciences in Tehran. “After Donald Trump reneged, he took back his words on a number of issues in the draft agreement,” Khoshcheshm told Al Jazeera. “The preliminary agreement included four items: removing the blockade, unfreezing Iranian assets, an end to the war on all fronts, especially in Lebanon, and giving Iran oil sanctions exemptions in return for the reopening of the Hormuz Strait under Iranian management. “Tehran said it would change the text and retreat on some of the things accordingly, then the Lebanon issue arose and the Iranians stalled the talks,” he said. “Messages are being exchanged, but not about the talks. One of the messages was the Iranian ultimatum about Lebanon and … the Israeli attacks on Beirut and Rafah have stopped, but they are still continuing their attacks on southern Lebanon.”
To put it in terms a movie lover could understand, President Donald Trump’s Iran War is drinking the U.S. government’s milkshake. Federal stocks of oil have dropped to their lowest level since 2004. Commercial crude stocks fell by 8 million barrels to 433.7 million last week, according to The Wall Street Journal. Unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon — which looks less likely now that Iran has called off negotiations with the U.S. and Israel — prices could hit $200 per barrel by summer, said Bob McNally, president of the Rapidan Energy Group consultancy and a former White House adviser. “You start to raise the risk of spillover into other sectors, the economy and financial system … it detonates fragilities in the broader economy and financial system,” he told the Financial Times.
The Trump administration is denying reports of incoming oil price spikes, even as the White House has been warned by multiple executives in the region. Politico reported that one anonymous executive told the administration that their storage tanks were “at dangerously low levels already,” three months into Iran’s retaliatory blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. “We have shared those concerns at the highest levels of government about what’s coming in mid-to-late June,” they said. “I hope they are paying attention to inventories right now. You’re hitting tank bottom.” In all, four executives told Politico that insiders have warned the Trump administration that a major price spike could hit consumers as soon as mid-June.
Iran is trying to support its allies and the sovereignty of the Lebanese government by rejecting the US-backed ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon, says Hassan Ahmadian, a professor at the University of Tehran. Ahmadian noted that Iran recently threatened to launch attacks against Israel when the Israeli military threatened to strike Beirut’s southern suburbs – a threat it later backed down from under pressure from Trump. “Now they’re saying that this deal is not a recipe for peace there,” Ahmadian told Al Jazeera, noting that the ceasefire does not specify terms for Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon, the return of displaced Lebanese citizens to the area or its reconstruction. “It’s a unilateral ceasefire. Hezbollah should stop attacking Israel, with Israel having the right to operate freely in southern Lebanon,” he said. “That’s unacceptable to Hezbollah and to Iran, and the Iranians waited for the secretary-general of Hezbollah to announce, and then they backed him in their refusal [of] this deal.”
Donald Trump has two things to say about his war with Iran. The first is that it’s already over. And second, a symbolic congressional vote to end it – carried by four members of his own party – is a stab in the back that could derail the peace talks he’s conducting for the war that’s already over.