Alan Mossman 💚

@alanmossman.bsky.social

841 Followers 2081 Following

Neuro-spicy 💚 grampy, electric 🚴🏻, occasional ✍️🎨, walker, studying construction as a social production process & writing on Why Construction is Broken. Born Bristol (310 ppm), Lee-on-Solent, Sherborne, Liverpool, DC, Manchester, London, living in Stroud

The Politico Poll of polls shows Reform currently at 24%, the Greens and the Conservatives both at 17%, Labour at 16% and the Lib Dems at 11%. This is a huge change from the position in July 2024 at the last general election. Because of the first past the post voting system in the UK, the proportion of seats gained by each party will be very different from the percentages shown in this graphic.
This graph, Last updated after 9 pm on the 1st of March shows the polling trends for voting intentions for the next general election (probably 2029). The graph aggregates polling data from many sources and treats them all equally. The reform vote picked at around 30% last year and has now fallen to below 28% Tory and labour are on about 19%. Greens are currently nudging 15% - it will be interesting to see what affect the Gorton and Denton result has on future polls Liberal Democrats are on about 12% The graph is from Wikipedia.
This poll of polls graph shows the trends for each of the major UK parties since the last General Election. Last updated on 10 December 2025 at around midday, it is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg It shows that Reform grew steadily following the last General Election but their numbers now appear to have levelled off at just over 30% in September/October and they are now declining. Currently on around 19% Labour continue to decline though this is slowing. Tories also on around 19% appear to have overtake Labour. (Historically, I am told, Labour have come out better in polls than in reality, and Tories worse.) Now just below 15%, The Green Party continue their upward progress that began in August. LibDems continue to declined and are now on around 13%. If, and it’s a big if, current trends continue, Green Party results could overtake those of Labour in January/February 2026.

These projects are mine and my previous projections have not been reliable I will try to repost this on a weekly basis with additional information here in the ALT text
This poll of polls graph shows the trends for each of the major UK parties since the last General Election. Last updated on 29 November, it is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg It shows that Reform grew steadily following the last General Election but their numbers now appear to have levelled off at just over 30% and now it is clear they are declining. Currently on around 18.5%, Labour support continues to decline at about 1% per month while support for the Tories, currently on around 18% continues to grow slowly. (Historically, I am told, Labour have come out better in polls than in reality, and Tories worse.) Now at just over 15%, support for The Green Party continues to grow at around 1.5% per month. The LibDems continue to declined and are now on around 12.5%. If, and it’s a big if, current trends continue, Green Party results could overtake those of both Labour and Conservatives before the end of January 2026 — and possibly before the end of this year, 2025. I will try to repost this on a weekly basis with additional information here in the ALT text
This poll of polls graph shows the trends for each of the major UK parties since the last General Election. Last updated on the 16th of November, it is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg It shows the Greens on around 15% are on the up and have recently overtaken the LibDems who have slowly declined over the last six months to around 13%. Currently on around 18% Labour have lost support considerably faster than the Tories currently on around 17.5%. Historically Labour have come out better in polls than in reality, and Tories worse. Until recently Reform have grown steadily since the last General Election but their numbers now appear to have levelled out at just over 30%. If, and it’s a big if, current trends continue, Green Party results could overtake those of both Labour and Conservatives before the end of January — and possibly before the end of this year.
This poll of polls graph with data to 8 November 2025 shows the trends for each of the major UK parties since the last General Election. It is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg It shows that the Greens on around 14% are on the up and have recently overtaken the LibDems who have declined recently to around 13%. Currently on around 19% Labour have lost support considerably faster than the Tories currently on around 18%. Historically Labour have come out better in polls than in reality, and Tories worse. Until recently Reform have been climbing since the last General Election but their numbers now appear to have peaked at just over 30% and to be declining. This poll of polls provides a context for thinking about the Savanta poll of 18-25 year olds.
This poll of polls graph with data to 8 November 2025 shows the trends for each of the major UK parties since the last General Election. It is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg It shows that the Greens on around 14% are on the up and have recently overtaken the LibDems who have declined recently to around 13%. Currently on around 19% Labour have lost support considerably faster than the Tories who are currently on around 18%. Historically Labour have come out better in polls than in reality, and Tories worse. Until recently Reform have been climbing since the last General Election but their numbers now appear to have peaked at just over 30% and to be declining.
This poll of polls graph from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg on 11 November shows the trends for each of the major UK parties since the last General Election. The graph uses data for a wide range of polling organisations. It shows that the Greens on around 14% are on the up and have recently overtaken the LibDems who have declined recently to around 13%. Currently on around 19% Labour have lost support considerably faster than the Tories currently on around 18%. Reform have been climbing until very recently but their numbers appear to have peaked at just over 30%.
This poll of polls graph from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg shows the trends for each of the major UK parties since the last General Election. It shows that the Greens on around 14% are on the up and have recently overtaken the LibDems who have declined recently to around 13%. Currently on around 19% Labour have lost support considerably faster than the Tories currently on around 18%. Reform have been climbing until recently but their numbers appear to have peaked at just over 30%
grandfather with walking stick walking slowly along woodland path hand-in-hand with young grandchild with gate to field ahead on the path
The image shows text which reads “if Trump really believed Zelensky was a dictator, he’d be idolising him. That’s the tell.”
This article from private eye 1640 explains among other things that the contract for Great Western Railway GWR runs until June 2028 with a possible break in June 2025. It is not yet clear what Transport secretary, Heidi Alexander, will do.
In this message to Kier Starmer Chris Packham writes: I hope you are having a good start to Christmas. I didn't know who else to write to so I'm hoping you can help. Please make some calls and get this poor woman out of prison for Christmas. This doesn't reflect well on the UK. Note 1: 77 year old Gaie Delap has been taken to prison because the company that was supposed to tag her doesn't have a tag small enough for her wrists. Note 2: The policy Gaie was campaigning for - no new oil and gas extraction licences - is now government policy
road works signs blocking a pavement
This diagram from Zofia Rybkowski’s PhD thesis (2009) compares how costs typically change over time in design-bid-build and Integrated Project Delivery. On design-bid-build projects costs typically increase as the project progresses — designers design without good information about cost of building and once the builder starts to build cost continue to increase as claims are made in relation to items that were not anticipated in the design. With Integrated Project Delivery IPD it is in everyone’s interest to keep costs down. Constructors are involved from the start so the designers have cost information from someone with ‘skin-in-the-game’ who can also advise of the costs of different construction methods.
The figure shows how the profit or loss on the BP Andrew project was to be shared once the project was completed in the early 1990s. The designers and constructors share was to be split in agreed proportions. If the project was delivered more than £27m over the agreed target cost the delivery partners risk was capped. There was no cap on the contractors additional profit if they delivered for less than the agreed target cost. By linking everyone’s profit it was in each es rests to help the whole team save money. The team delivered early and well below the agreed target cost.