Amber Dellar

@amberdellar.bsky.social

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Researcher, public services @instituteforgovernment.org.uk. Focusing on schools and local government, particularly children's social care and homelessness. She/her

A list of recommendations from the IfG paper. It starts with setting clear objectives that bind services together, and ensuring the resources exist to deliver them. It then goes onto co-ordinating reform across Whitehall, being realistic about what the health system can deliver, and funding services in ways that reward collaboration rather than ‘cost-shunting’. And finally, it involves standardising processes where there is little benefit in asking every area to design its own.
An area chart from the Institute for Government of pupils receiving support for special educational needs and disabilities, by type, 2010-26 where figures peak in 2010 at 21.1% before dropping to 14.4% in 2014 and rising again to 20.8% in 2026. EHCPs are now more than twice as common as they were in 2010.
A line chart from the Institute for Government of pupils with an education, health and care plan, all schools, 2010–25, where the share of pupils with an EHCP has risen steadily since 2017. After holding at 2.8% between 2010 and 2017, the proportion has climbed steadily to 5.3% in 2025.
An areas chart from the Institute for Government of pupils receiving support for special educational needs and disabilities, by type, 2010-26 where figures peak in 2010 at 21.1% before dropping to 14.4% in 2014 and rising again to 20.8% in 2026. EHCPs are now more than twice as common as they were in 2010.
A list of 10 recommendations from the IfG's fixing the children's social care market report
10 recommendations to deliver children's social care reform from the Institute for Government's report 'Fixing the children's social care market'
A grouped column chart from the Institute for Government of weekly unit costs of placements for children in care, by placement type, 2016/17–2024/25 (2026/27 prices) where the average placement in a children’s home now costs £7,800 a week, 64% higher than it was in 2016/17. Foster care averages £805 a week, nearly 10 times less – and the price has stayed relatively stable.
A line chart from the Institute for Government of spending on children in care, actual and modelled, 2009/10–2024/25 (2026/27 prices) where spending has grown by 68% to £8.9bn in 2024/25. If spending had risen in line with the care population since 2015/16, England would have spent only £6.1bn in 2024/25.
A grouped column chart from the Institute for Government of investigations and confirmed cases of unregistered children’s homes, 2020/21–2024/25 where 680 unregistered children’s homes were uncovered in 2024/25, a fivefold increase on the 144 found in 2020/21.
A forest plot from the Institute for Government of the expected percentage-point difference in the share of children in care living in distant placements in 2025, in areas where median hourly wages are £1 higher (+1.2ppt), there is 1 more dwelling per hectare (-0.5ppts) and median house prices are £10,000 higher (+0.2ppts).
A line chart from the Institute for Government of children in care placed more than 20 miles from home, by region, 2017–25 where little has changed since 2017 in the regions where distant placements were already uncommon (North East and North West), but those at the top end of the distribution (South East and South West) have continued to pull away.
A scatter plot from the Institute for Government of children in children’s homes and secure children’s homes compared to places, by local authority, 2025 where more than a third of councils were using more children’s home places than existed within their boundaries, and other areas have a vast oversupply.
10 recommendations to deliver children's social care reform, all found in the IfG's report 'Fixing the children's social care market'
A grouped column chart from the Institute for Government of weekly unit costs of placements for children in care, by placement type, 2016/17–2024/25 (2026/27 prices) where the average placement in a children’s home now costs £7,800 a week, 64% higher than it was in 2016/17. Foster care averages £805 a week, nearly 10 times less – and the price has stayed relatively stable.
A grouped column chart from the Institute for Government of investigations and confirmed cases of unregistered children’s homes, 2020/21–2024/25 where 680 unregistered children’s homes were uncovered in 2024/25, a fivefold increase on the 144 found in 2020/21.
A forest plot from the Institute for Government of the expected percentage-point difference in the share of children in care living in distant placements in 2025, in areas where median hourly wages are £1 higher (+1.2ppt), there is 1 more dwelling per hectare (-0.5ppts) and median house prices are £10,000 higher (+0.2ppts).
A line chart from the Institute for Government of children in care placed more than 20 miles from home, by region, 2017–25 where little has changed since 2017 in the regions where distant placements were already uncommon (North East and North West), but those at the top end of the distribution (South East and South West) have continued to pull away.
A scatter plot from the Institute for Government of children in children’s homes and secure children’s homes compared to places, by local authority, 2025 where more than a third of councils were using more children’s home places than existed within their boundaries, and other areas have a vast oversupply.
Since our November 2025 forecast, the ONS has increased its estimate of local authority (LA) borrowing in 2023-24 by £0.2 billion to £14 billion, and in 2024-25 by £1.7 billion to £17 billion. The latest 2024-25 estimate is £8 billion higher relative to our estimate at the time of the March 2025 forecast.13 Provisional monthly Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) local authority borrowing data up to September 2025 now indicates that LA net borrowing this year could be around 8 per cent higher than 2024-25. As a result, we now forecast that local authority net borrowing will reach £18 billion in 2025-26, which is £1.9 billion higher than in November.
Screenshot from SEND reform consultation: "Over the next few years, there is also substantial ICB and local government reform taking place. These ICB reforms around structure and responsibilities will result in changes to their overarching accountability frameworks. Therefore, DfE and DHSC will work closely together and with areas to ensure that these changes do not disrupt or deprioritise the fulfilment of their statutory duties around SEND, and will look for further opportunities to strengthen accountability for local area partners to improve outcomes for families and children and young people with SEND."
A line chart from the Institute for Government of local authority-maintained primary schools with negative financial reserves, 2009/10–2023/24, where financial pressures on schools have worsened in recent years. After fluctuating between 4% and 8% through most of the 2010s, the share of schools with negative financial reserves rose to 14.7% in 2023/24.
Screenshot from DfE blog, which states that the OBR's estimate of the impact of SEND announcements on schools budgets is fundamentally wrong
A column chart from the Institute for Government of 19 to 21 year-old care leavers by activity, 2025 showing that 40% were not in education, training or employment.
“It is not entirely clear to me… why the Secretary of State cannot or cannot yet enable all children who need to do so to enjoy the security of a registered home. This problem is clearly not a new one… It is not satisfactory that the courts should be used to address not just a specific gap but a systemic gap in the provision of care for children.”
A line chart from the Institute for Government showing applications for Deprivation of Liberty orders and secure children's accommodation, Q2 2017 to Q2 2025, where deprivation of liberty order applications have risen steeply over the period, reaching 357 in Q2 2025, while secure accommodation applications have roughly halved, reaching 71 in Q2 2025.
“It is not entirely clear to me… why the Secretary of State cannot or cannot yet enable all children who need to do so to enjoy the security of a registered home. This problem is clearly not a new one… It is not satisfactory that the courts should be used to address not just a specific gap but a systemic gap in the provision of care for children.”
A line chart from the Institute for Government showing applications for Deprivation of Liberty orders and secure children's accommodation, Q2 2017 to Q2 2025, where deprivation of liberty order applications have risen steeply over the period, reaching 357 in Q2 2025, while secure accommodation applications have roughly halved, reaching 71 in Q2 2025.
A line chart from the Institute for Government of suspensions per 100 state school pupils, by decile of deprivation, 2015–16 to 2023–24, where the disparity between pupils living in the most and least deprived areas has grown nearly eight times in size since the pandemic. In 2023–24, suspensions were ten times more common among pupils living in the most deprived areas than among those in the least deprived areas, at a rate of 30.2 versus 3.5 per 100.
A line chart from the Institute for Government of secondary school absence rate of pupils with an education, health and care plan, by local authority, 2017–18 to 2023–24, where in 2023–24, the best-performing tenth of local authority areas had absence rates among secondary EHCP pupils of 10.5%, higher than the worst-performing tenth five years earlier. Now, in the worst-affected areas, absences stand at 19.5%.
A line chart from the Institute for Government of state school teacher retention compared to years since qualifying, by qualification date, 1996–2024, where early career retention has steadily worsened. While 67.6% of teachers who qualified in 2019 remain in the classroom, 68.3% of the 2011–2015 starters, and 73.5% of the 2006–2010 starters, were still teaching five years after they qualified.
A column chart from the Institute for Government of cumulative deficit on schools budgets in 2023/24 as a proportion of 2023/24 schools budgets, by quintile of deprivation, where the least deprived areas have higher average deficits of 12.3%, compared to 1.4% in the most deprived areas.
A beeswarm plot from the Institute for Government of the cumulative deficit on schools budgets in 2023/24 as a proportion of 2023/24 schools budgets, by local authority, where there is extraordinary variation across England, with a 19.4% surplus recorded in Southend-on-Sea and a 58.4% deficit recorded in Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole.
A line chart from the Institute for Government of high-needs spending and funding per education, health and care plan (for all aged 0–25), 2015/16–2024/25 (2025/26 prices) where there is less money available per pupil in need, almost halving from around £29,000 per EHCP in 2015/16 to £14,700 in 2024/25. Spending on high needs has outstripped available funding in every year since 2016/17, and by a generally increasing margin - with a gap of around £1,000 per EHCP in 2023/24.
A line chart from the Institute for Government of the change in state school pupil numbers from 2010–11, actual and forecast, by school type, where enrolment in state special schools has risen by 92% since 2010–11, but enrolment in state mainstream schools rose only by 14% in that time period.
A column chart from the Institute for Government showing the percentage change in primary school pupil numbers, 2018–19 to 2024–25, by rurality, where pupil numbers have fallen across all areas. The sharpest decline was in London (–8.2%), but this is not part of a wider urban trend. The other biggest drops are all in areas that are further from major towns or cities, with the second biggest in smaller rural areas further from major towns or cities (–6.9%) .
A screenshot of the Institute for Government's Performance Tracker 2025 report on Schools, showing key findings. These include: • The equivalent of 23,000 primary school classrooms are empty across England, the highest number since records began back in 2009–10 • Meanwhile, two-thirds of state special schools are now operating over capacity • The average education, health and care plan cost £1,000 more than the funding it attracted in 2023/24 • Pupils with education, health and care plans (EHCPs) now miss a full day of secondary school every week, on average. • In 2023–24, there were an average of five suspensions in every secondary school class, more than double the highest rate seen before the pandemic.
A column chart from the Institute for Government of local authorities by share of services that are underperforming, 2023/24, where the majority of local authorities have 50-60% of services underperforming, with one authority having 90-100% of services underperforming and one having 0-10% underperforming.
A line chart from the Institute for Government of households with children in temporary accommodation housed in B&Bs for longer than six weeks, Q3 2018 to Q1 2025 where the proportion was relatively steady (around 1%) until 2022 where it increased to a peak of 4.8% in Q2 2024. It has since fallen to reach 2.8% in Q1 2025.
A line chart from the Institute for Government showing annual spend per child in care, by local authority, 2015/16–2023/24 (2025/26 prices, adjusted for varying area costs), where average spending in England has risen from £73,339 to £97,689, with variation at a local authority level growing over time. In 2023/24, the 90th percentile exceeded £120,000 and the 10th percentile was below £80,000.
A beeswarm chart from the Institute for Government of the ratio of temporary accommodation placement cost per household to median private rent, by local authority, 2024/25 where London boroughs typically have costs close to the median private rent in their areas, but some non-London local authorities have costs far exceeding that.
A line chart from the Institute for Government showing change in children's social care spending and numbers of children in care and in need since 2012/13, where spending has risen by more than 50%, yet the number of children in care has only risen by 23%, and the number of children in need by 6%
An area chart from the Institute for Government of households initially assessed as owed a homelessness prevention or relief duty, by reason, Q2 2019 to Q1 2025 where increases in 'Required to leave Home Office accommodation' and 'Departure from institution' make up around half of the growth in duties owed over the given time period.
A line chart from the Institute for Government of households in temporary accommodation, 2010–25 where the number has tended to increase, from 51,000 at the start of 2010 to 131,000 at the start of 2025. The growth has been particularly fast since the start of 2022.
A line chart from the Institute for Government of spending on temporary accommodation, 2009/10–2024/25 (2025/26 prices) where total and net spending have both grown significantly over the period, but net spending has grown faster. In 2009/10, net spending was 7.1% of total spending; in 2024/25 it was 50.6%.
A stacked area chart from the Institute for Government of local authority spending on children’s services, by type, 2009/10–2023/24 (2025/26 prices), where spending on acute services forms the largest share and has continued to grow, while spending on preventative services has declined and now forms a significantly smaller share of total spending.
A line chart from the Institute for Government of real-terms change in local authority spending per person, by service, since 2009/10, where spending on adult social care and children's services is almost 20% higher than it was in 2009/10, while spending on other local authority services fell by nearly 40%.
Two line charts from the Institute for Government of primary and secondary school absence rate, by local authority 2006–07 and 2023–24 where absence rates rose steeply among all pupils in 2021–22. The gap between disadvantaged pupils’ absence and non-disadvantaged pupils’ is now bigger than it was pre-pandemic, and is still growing.
A scatter plot from the Institute for Government of disadvantaged pupils’ KS2 attainment compared to disadvantage rate, by local authority, 2024 where disadvantaged pupils tend to perform better in areas with higher disadvantage rates.
A scatter plot from the Institute for Government of disadvantaged pupils' KS4 progress compared to non-disadvantaged pupils' KS4 progress, by local authority, 2024 where there is a strong positive relationship between the two variables, but disadvantaged pupils tend to have negative progress scores and non-disadvantaged pupils tend to have positive ones.
A bee swarm chart from the Institute for Government of disadvantaged pupils’ KS2 and KS4 performance, by local authority, 2024 where there is significant variation in performance across all measures. London local authorities are far ahead across all measures and Knowsley and Blackpool are far behind on KS4 attainment and KS4 progress.
A dot plot from the Institute for Government of KS2 attainment, by ethnicity and disadvantage status, 2024 where the gap between disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged pupils is much narrower within some ethnicities (particularly Asian - Chinese) than it is in others (particularly White-Irish). Disadvantaged pupils from some ethnicities (particularly Asian - Chinese) outperform non-disadvantaged pupils from others on average, with non-disadvantaged pupils from White - Traveller of Irish heritage and White - Gypsy/Roma ethnicities outperformed by disadvantaged pupils from all other ethnicities.
A grouped column chart from the Institute for Government of KS2 and KS4 performance by disadvantage status, 2024 where disadvantaged pupils do worse on average than non-disadvantaged pupils in every performance measure.
A bee swarm chart from the Institute for Government of KS2 and KS4 performance by local authority, 2024 where across all measures, London local authorities tend to outperform others and Trafford is consistently one of the best non-London local authorities. Blackpool and Knowsley are far behind other local authorities in KS4 attainment and progress.
A line chart from the Institute for Government of local authority core spending power, actual and forecast at different fiscal events between 2010/11 and 2029/30, where spending power falls dramatically in the first half of the 2010s before rising slightly between 2019/20 and 2029/30, but ends approximately 10% lower than in 2010/11.
A line chart from the Institute for Government of forecast change in local authority demand and real-terms day-to-day funding between 2023/24 and 2029/30, where funding starts equal to demand in 2023/24, rises quicker than demand until 2025/26, then rises slower, so that in 2029/30 funding is again equal to demand.