Andz

@andz.bsky.social

1161 Followers 218 Following

Dad. Too multidisciplinary engineer. Central Jersey exists. He/him.

A bunch of kids packed in foam
3mo It's very early to prognosticate about this, but seems increasingly likely to me that control of the strait will become a lever both sides use throughout the negotiations and we'll end up stuck for months because of it. I don't see Iran walking away from a ceasefire or compromising in the short term.
Screenshot listing typical Apple device lease payments; all prices exclude taxes and trade-in credit: • iPhone 17 Pro 256GB, $1,099: $31.99/month for 24 months or $45.99/month for 12 months. • Apple Watch Series 11 GPS 42mm, $399: $11.99/month for 24 months or $21.99/month for 12 months. • 11-inch iPad Pro 256GB, $1,199: $24.99/month for 36 months or $31.99/month for 24 months. • 14-inch MacBook Pro 16GB, $1,999: $38.99/month for 36 months or $53.99/month for 24 months.
The admin absolutely pulled back from the maximalist rates for "Liberation Day". Iran's leverage is why they need to course correct but the strategic requirement is a long term security guarantee and a Trump admin can't be trusted, so even if they pull out Iran has to continue applying leverage.
Line chart titled "US distillate inventory — year-over-year," showing weekly US distillate stocks in Mbbl across 2024, 2025, 2026, and the 5-year average band. As of Wk 26 ("now"), 2026 inventory is 108.6 Mbbl, above 2025's 103.6 Mbbl but below 2024's 119.7 Mbbl and the 5-yr average of 117.3 Mbbl. All series show a seasonal draw from Wk 1 lows near 130-134 down to a trough around Wk 17-21 (roughly 100-108 Mbbl), then a rebuild through the rest of the year back toward 120+ Mbbl by Wk 49-52. The 2026 line tracks below the 5-year average band for most of the year shown so far.
Little bun eating plants in a garden
Line chart titled "US crude inventory incl. SPR — year-over-year" on a dark background, Crude incl. SPR (Mbbl, y-axis 760–940) vs. week (Wk 1–52). Series: 2026 (solid purple, current), 2025 (dashed purple), 2024 (dotted purple), and a shaded 5-year-average band (the highest range, roughly 860–930). Vertical "now" line near Wk 23. The solid 2026 line starts around 833, rises to a peak near 878 at Wk 13, then falls steeply to about 774 by "now" — running far below both the historical years and the 5-yr-average band, reflecting much lower combined commercial-plus-SPR stocks. The 2025 (dashed, ~820–840) and 2024 (dotted, ~795–825) lines stay relatively flat across the year, well below the shaded average band.
Line chart titled "US crude oil imports — year-over-year" on a dark background, Crude imports (Mb/d, y-axis 4.5–8.5) vs. week (Wk 1–52). Series: 2026 (solid cyan, current), 2025 (dashed cyan), 2024 (dotted cyan), and a shaded 5-year-average band. Vertical "now" line near Wk 23. All series are highly volatile, oscillating mostly between about 5.0 and 7.5 Mb/d with no clear trend. The solid 2026 line swings between roughly 5.2 and 7.2, sitting near 5.9 at "now." A tooltip at Wk 1 shows values: 2026 6.3 Mb/d, 2024 6.2 Mb/d, 2025 6.4 Mb/d, 5-yr avg 6.3 Mb/d. The dotted 2024 line shows a sharp spike to about 8.3 Mb/d right at the "now" mark (Wk 23).
Line chart titled "Refinery utilization — year-over-year" on a dark background, Utilization % (y-axis 78–98%) vs. week (Wk 1–52). Series: 2026 (solid blue, current), 2025 (dashed orange), 2024 (dotted gray), and a shaded 5-year-average band. Vertical "now" line near Wk 23. The solid 2026 line runs high all year, near 94–95% at Wk 1, dipping to about 88–90% mid-winter (Wk 5–17), then climbing back to roughly 95% at "now" — tracking at or above the 5-yr average. Historical lines past "now" show the seasonal pattern: peaking in the mid-90s in summer (Wk 29–33), a sharp dip to ~85–86% around Wk 41, then recovering into the low-to-mid 90s by year-end.
Line chart titled "US distillate inventory — year-over-year" on a dark background, Distillates (Mbbl, y-axis 100–135) vs. week (Wk 1–52). Series: 2026 (solid red, current), 2025 (dashed red), 2024 (dotted red), and a shaded 5-year-average band. Vertical "now" line near Wk 23. The solid 2026 line starts around 129, peaks near 132 at Wk 4, then falls sharply to about 102 by Wk 18, staying flat near 102 at "now" — well below the 5-yr-average band, signaling a tight distillate market. Historical lines past "now" trend higher, rising into the 120s through summer and ending around 120–123 at year-end.
Line chart titled "US gasoline inventory — year-over-year" on a dark background, Gasoline (Mbbl, y-axis 200–260) vs. week (Wk 1–52). Series: 2026 (solid green, current), 2025 (dashed green), 2024 (dotted green), and a shaded 5-year-average band. A vertical "now" line sits around Wk 23. The solid 2026 line starts near 242, peaks around 259 at Wk 5, then declines steeply to about 211 by Wk 21, ending near 215 at "now" — running below the 5-yr average through the spring draw. Historical lines (2025/2024) show the typical pattern past "now": holding near 220–235 through summer, dipping to ~205–210 around Wk 43–45, then recovering to the low 230s by year-end.
Line chart titled "US crude inventory — year-over-year" on a dark background, plotting Crude (Mbbl, y-axis 410–470) against week of year (Wk 1 to ~Wk 52). Four series: 2026 (solid blue, the current year), 2025 (dashed blue), 2024 (dotted blue), and a shaded gray band for the 5-year average range. A vertical dashed line labeled "now" sits around Week 23. The solid 2026 line rises from about 420 at Wk 1 to a peak near 465 around Wk 15–16, tracking the upper part of the 5-year-average band, then falls sharply to about 427 at the "now" line — ending the actual data. The dashed 2025 and dotted 2024 lines show the historical pattern continuing past "now," generally declining through mid-year to lows around 410–420 near Wk 25–37 before recovering modestly into the high 420s by year-end.
Line chart titled "Crude inventory, exports & production" on a dark background, spanning roughly Dec 12 to late May. Three series: Crude inventory (solid blue line, left axis in Mbbl, 410–470), Production (dotted green line, right axis in Mbpd, 2–16), and Exports (dashed orange line, right axis). Crude inventory starts near 425, dips slightly through January, then climbs steeply from mid-February (~420) to a peak around 465 in mid-April, before declining sharply to about 427 by late May. Production stays nearly flat near 13.5–14 Mbpd the entire period. Exports fluctuate between roughly 3 and 6.5 Mbpd with no clear trend.
Two-panel Jurassic Park meme. Top: Dennis Nedry gesturing across an outdoor café table at a skeptical-looking Dr. Grant, overlaid with an Axios headline reading "Scoop: U.S. and Iran reach deal but need Trump's final approval, officials say — The pending deal calls for an end to the war but leaves key nuclear issues to be negotiated." Bottom: Nedry grinning smugly at Grant, with a crude oil candlestick chart pasted over the scene showing price running in a channel.
Progress in Iran Talks Undercut Over Uranium, Hormuz Tolls (Bloomberg)
Allocation vs. 10-Year Forward Return (Inverted) The blue line shows the aggregate investor equity allocation on the left axis, while the red line shows the subsequent 10-year annualized S&P 500 total return on an inverted right axis, so that both lines move upward together when the historical relationship holds. The two lines track tightly through roughly 2013, then diverge. The red line terminates around 2016 (the last starting point with 10 full years of realized returns), leaving the blue line's continued climb to all-time highs as an out-of-sample prediction of negative forward returns.
It's very early to prognosticate about this, but seems increasingly likely to me that control of the strait will become a lever both sides use throughout the negotiations and we'll end up stuck for months because of it. I don't see Iran walking away from a ceasefire or compromising in the short term.
33 Thomas St in Manhattan
NJ-12 contenders on the ballot
A front hall with hole in ceiling, tools and drop clothes covering things.
WTI futures later in the day on April 21, 2026
WTI futures swinging up and down over the course of April 21, 2026.
Hormus AIS positions at 11:20 EDT 2026-04-17
President Donald Trump says Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely, and will not recieve any frozen funds from the US.
The James Franco 'first time' meme
Federal Reserve Bank graph of 30 year mortgage rates from 1986 to 2016, starting at around 11% and dropping to about 4%.
NJ gov Mercer County town specific tax rates from https://www.nj.gov/treasury/taxation/pdf/lpt/gtr/2024taxrates.pdf
Tax rates for Mercer county as reported by NJ state in https://www.nj.gov/treasury/taxation/pdf/lpt/class4/2025AvgResStat.pdf
The Wikipedia map of US House of Representatives results for 2010 showing Republicans at +7%
4 sled dogs snuggling on a slide and 3 snuggling next to a fence