matas bee

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#KMPX 📍🌪️ SN: meadxmoon YT: arrrefffdeee

Day 1 convective outlook ~3pm CT 7/4/2026
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development expected the next few hours from far eastern North Dakota into parts of Minnesota. The strongest storms may produce gusty winds, hail, and a tornado or two. Watch issuance is uncertain. DISCUSSION...In the wake of morning showers and thunderstorms across central/northern MN, additional storm development is expected within a modestly destabilizing airmass. A cluster of storms across central MN how shown some signs of intensification over the past 30 minutes. This activity is occurring within a zone of strong low-level convergence ahead of a surface cold front and near/south of an occluding front extending north/northwest across northern MN into eastern ND. Modest midlevel lapse rates and weak boundary layer moisture will support generally 1000 J/kg MLCAPE or less across the region. However, stronger mid/upper level westerly flow will foster effective shear magnitudes near 25-35 kt, fostering at least transient organized cells. The strongest storms will be capable of hail as large as 1-1.25 inches and gusty winds (where stronger heating occurs). A tornado or two also is possible within backed low-level flow ahead of the surface boundary and on the eastern flank of a surface low where mildly enhanced 0-1 km SRH is present. Convection should gradually increase in coverage with northward extent into the afternoon. Given the overall modest environmental parameter space, the need for a watch is uncertain as the overall threat may remain sparse/transient due to a lack of higher quality boundary layer moisture and stronger instability. Trends will continue to be monitored. MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Lil Wayne in front of a plate of lasagna with the lyrics from 6’7 - real G’s move in silence like lasagna