Stephen Schwartz

@atomicanalyst.bsky.social

15990 Followers 1151 Following

Editor/Co-author, “Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of US Nuclear Weapons Since 1940” • Nonresident Senior Fellow, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists • Nuclear weapons expert (history, policy, costs, accidents) and tracker of the nuclear “Football.”

Dr. Miles Bennell (Kevin McCarthy) near the end of the 1956 black and white film "Invasion of the Body Snatchers" frantically trying to warn anyone who will listen: "Look! You fools! You're in danger! Can't you see? They're after you! They're after all of us! Our wives, our children, everyone! They're here already! You're next!"
An official annotated chart showing the total size of the US nuclear stockpile from 1945-2023, as released by the National Nuclear Security Administration in 2024. The chart shows the size of the stockpile at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 (25,540), its maximum size in 1967 (31,255), the end the of the Cold War in 1989 (22,217), and at the end of 2023 (3,748). Link: https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/transparency-us-nuclear-weapons-stockpile
A July 21, 1974, Washington Post editorial cartoon by Herbert Block (Herblock). To the right, three determined-looking, middle-aged white men in suits aim rifles at Lady Justice, who is blindfolded, tied to a stake, and holding the scales of justice in her right hand. Around her, laying on the ground, we can see the legs and feet of three symbolic people who have already been shot and killed. In the center near the top, President Richard Nixon, a smirk on his face, holds a sword in his left hand, ready to slash downward to signal the firing squad to fire. In the foreground at the bottom, one man says to another, "How can they say he hasn't faithfully executed the laws?"
A black and white magazine advertisement headlined: "Santa Fe looks into the future: Nuclear Right-of-Way PROJECT CARRYALL ... proposed first industrial use of nuclear explosives, Goffs-Ash Hill, California line change." An excerpt: "If accomplished, this project would greatly reduce the cost of constructing a line change 65 miles long between Goffs and Ash Hill which is under consideration. Such a change would shorten Santa Fe's route by 15 miles. Even more important, it would allow lighter grades and easier curves." There are two side-by-side drawings at the top showing (left) a large mushroom cloud in the Bristol Mountains, excavating an area about 1/4 mile wide, and (right) what the highway and railway pass would look like when completed. Notably absent, any sign of lingering radioactivity. At the bottom, a map of of California, showing rail lines serving Needles, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Sacramento, and a couple points in between.
A color graphic on a light blue background showing a small gray cylinder at center left and a larger one at center right. Beneath the smaller one is a box reading "10 KT, $350,000" and under the larger one is a box reading, "2 MT, $600,000."
An black and white chart from a 1969 Atomic Energy Commission report titled "Projected Charges For Thermonuclear Explosives," with the x-axis labeled "Yield in Kilotons" (from 10 on the left to 2,000 on the right) and the y-axis labeled "Thousands of Dollars (from $100,000 at the bottom to $800,000 on the top. A diagonal black line starting at $350,000 for 10 kilotons proceeds linearly to $600,000 for 2,000 kilotons (2 Megatons). A box inside the chart reads, "The AEC projects a charge of $350,000 for a nuclear explosion for a 10 kiloton yield and $600,000 for a 2 megaton yield. These charges cover nuclear materials, fabrication and assembly, and arming and firing services. These charges are bases particularly to excavation applications."
A screenshot from an official government film of the TEWA mushroom cloud ascending into the sky. The center area, above the stem, is bright yellow while the outer portions are orange-red. The light reflects off clouds in the area, including transient condensation clouds (Wilson clouds) formed by the explosion itself.
A color photograph of the Basson Prime device detonated in the TEWA nuclear test inside its rectangular shot cab on the barge. The device is a shiny metallic cylinder with a slightly flared bottom 11.3 feet tall, 39 inches in diameter, and weighing 15,735 pounds (almost 7.9 tons). Two metallic line-of-sight diagnostic tubes protrude out of the left side of the cylinder and through the white canvas wall of the shot cab. A shirtless man in khaki shorts stands near the device with his left hand on the lower diagnostic tube, looking up at another shirtless man in khaki shorts standing on metal scaffolding next to the top of the device.
Screenshot of the top of the linked article, "Letters of Last Resort Are Post-Apocalyptic Orders for UK Vanguard Sub Crews," showing a large photograph of a white hand holding the red pistol-grip trigger used to to actually launch Trident II ballistic missiles from the submarines (a blue pistol-grip trigger is used for training exercises). A summary of the article above the photograph reads, "The Prime Minister writes hand-penned orders to Royal Navy ballistic missile submarine captains explaining what to do following a sneak nuclear attack that wipes out the United Kingdom government."
A black and white photograph of Prime Minister James Callaghan in 1975 (age 63), showing him seemingly in thought, resting his left hand and forefinger on his chin. He wears a dark jacket, dark patterned tie, and a white dress shirt.
An excerpted quote from a 2016 Politico Europe article (https://www.politico.eu/article/the-grim-task-awaiting-theresa-may-preparing-for-nuclear-armageddon-uk-prime-minister-british-defense-letter-of-last-resort/): "Only one prime minister, James Callaghan, who served from 1976 to 1979, has ever spoken publicly about his decision-making. He said, years later, that his belief was that the nation should fire its weapons: ’If it were to become necessary or vital, it would have meant the deterrent had failed, because the value of the nuclear weapon is frankly only as a deterrent. But if we had got to that point, where it was, I felt, necessary to do it, then I would have done it. I’ve had terrible doubts, of course, about this. I say to you, if I had lived after having pressed that button, I could never, ever have forgiven myself.’” Original source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_7758000/7758347.stm
A 2016 color photograph of Daniel Martyn, the then-commander of the UK ballistic missile submarine HMS Vigilant, squatting next to a medium-size, putty-colored safe bolted to the floor of the submarine that holds the prime minister's Letter of Last Resort instructions.
A ground-level color photograph of a Jupiter missile against a blue sky deployed in Çiğli, Turkey, with the bottom of the missile encased in its protective “petal” shelter. The Turkish flag (a red field with a crescent and a white five-pointed star) is visible near the top of the missile, above an emblem featuring a mushroom cloud. A soldier in green fatigues is walking toward the camera, dwarfed by the missile behind him. A tall fence topped with barbed wire is visible in the background.
A color photograph of three Jupiter missiles deployed in Turkey, showing the layout of part of the base in a valley surrounded by hills.
A black and white photograph showing a man in civilian clothing assembling a large white conical nose cone for the Jupiter missile. The nose cone is laying on a heavy-duty metal stand.
A color map adapted from a map in an official document showing the location of all the Jupiter missiles deployed at Gioia Del Colle Air Base in Italy from 1961-63 (numbered in the order in which they were activated), along with the date the missiles were activated and deactivated and the driving distance to each location from Gioia Del Colle.
A copy of the next page from inside the book continuing the discussion about preparations for the test.
The cover of the book “Continental Defense in the Eisenhower Era: Nuclear Antiaircraft Arms and the Cold War,” which features a photograph of a nuclear-tipped Nike Hercules missile deployed close to Lake Michigan in Chicago. Two uniformed soldiers can be seen running past the white missile, which sits horizontally on its launch rail. Two large apartment buildings are visible in the background.
A black and white casual portrait of Frank P. Ball in uniform.
The top of an Associated Press newspaper article with a dateline of July 20 featuring the headline, "'A-Guinea Pigs' Shrug Off Danger." The article, datelined "Atomic Test Site," begins, "The first five men to stand under an atomic explosion intentionally shrugged their experience off today as just a breeze."
The cover of the Department of Energy document, “United States Nuclear Tests — July 1945 through September 1992” (DOE/NV-209-REV 16), published September 2015. Three large color photographs show the July 25, 1946, Crossroads BAKER underwater test at Bikini Atoll, the May 25, 1953, GRABLE test of the atomic cannon at the Nevada Proving Ground, and an overhead view of many of the subsidence craters at the test site from hundreds of underground nuclear tests there.
A GIF of Chuck Krantz (Tom Hiddleston) and Janice Halliday (Annalise Basso) from the glorious street dance sequence in "The Life of Chuck."
A low-resolution color screenshot from the linked official film showing the long SCHOONER device canister, which has painted horizontal red, white, and blue stripes near its top and bottom, being lowered by a crane into its test shaft at the Nevada Test Site.
A color screenshot from an official film showing the glowing purplish fireball from the high-altitude TIGHTROPE nuclear test on November 4, 1962.
Screenshot of the first page of the linked 2013 Nevada National Security Site PDF document about the LITTLE FELLER I nuclear test, with the headline “Davy Crockett Makes History with a Little Feller at the NTS." Two black and white photographs, of a jeep-mounted version of the Davy Crockett and of Maxwell Taylor and Robert F. Kennedy arriving at the test viewing area, are at the top.
Two black and white side-by-side photographs (likely published in Aviation Week & Space Technology) showing the GAR-11 Falcon air-to-air missile. On the left, a fighter pilot in a pressurized flight suit touches the aft end of a Falcon as it hangs from a crane (a fighter jet is visible in the background). On the right, a white GAR-11 Falcon is displayed standing on the ground, nose up, next to three other, dark-colored, non-nuclear versions of the weapon. The caption below reads, "Hughes GAR-11 Falcon With Nuclear Warhead Unveiled." A paragraph of text below that describes the new weapon in detail.
A 1960s color magazine advertisement from the aircraft/missile division of military contractor SPS, with three quarters of the top of the page taken up with a vivid painting of a hilly, brown dirt battlefield under red skies where soldiers are firing various weapons, including the Mauler, “a small vehicle-borne ground-to-air weapon deadly to strafing planes; the T-55 chemical launcher; SSII “wire-guided anti-tank missiles”; and “on the jeep in the foreground is the launcher for Davy Crockett, a recoilless rifle which fires a nuclear warhead.” An early-stage hemispherical orange-yellow fireball can be seen the background at upper left where the Davy Crockett warhead has just detonated.
A black and white photograph taken during a training exercise of the M29 155-millimeter jeep-mounted "heavy" variant of the Davy Crockett recoilless rifle, which had a range of approximately 2.5 miles. The weapon is mounted on the right rear side of the jeep and is pointed in the air to the left. One soldier appears to be aiming the weapon, while three others on the other side of the jeep look on. There is snow on the ground and the soldiers are wearing thick gloves.
A color screenshot from an official film showing Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy and White House military representative (and future chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff) General Maxwell Taylor (both wearing white short-sleeve shirts and sunglasses), along with other military officials in uniform, sitting on a wooden viewing stand to observe the LITTLE FELLER I nuclear test.
A color photograph of a GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb on static horizontal display on a sturdy metal stand outside the Air Force Armament Museum at Eglin AFB in Florida. The body of the bomb is painted green with MOAB on the side; the nose is painted yellow. The tail section features four large grid fins (deployed perpendicular to the missile body) to steer the bomb toward its target.
A color screenshot from an official film showing the Davy Crockett projectile firing from its M29 "heavy" 155-millimeter tripod launcher at the start of the LITTER FELLER I test.
The sixth paragraph of the Szilard petition: "If after this war a situation is allowed to develop in the world which permits rival powers to be in uncontrolled possession of these new means of destruction, the cities of the United States as well as the cities of other nations will be in continuous danger of sudden annihilation. All the resources of the United States, moral and material, may have to be mobilized to prevent the advent of such a world situation. Its prevention is at present the solemn responsibility of the United States—singled out by virtue of her lead in the field of atomic power."
A photograph of an archival copy of Leo Szilard's "A Petition to the President of the United States," dated July 17, 1945, and stamped "SECRET" in red at the top (subsequently crossed out in blue ink). It bears 12 signatures on the first page (the only page shown), including Leo Szilard, Ralph E. Lapp, Eugene P. Wigner, and John A. Simpson, Jr. Next to the signatures is a black "DECLASSIFIED" stamp.
An October 2016 New Yorker cartoon by John McNamee showing swarthy man in an undershirt and pants sits on a large upholstered armchair watching a small television. On the floor to his left is an opened can of green paint lying on its side, some green paint spilling out onto the floor. On his lap, he holds a can of purple paint, the same color that is smeared all around his mouth. Angrily, he shouts at the television, “I’m sick of experts telling me what paints I can’t drink.”
A screenshot of the linked page: "Proclamation 10784—National Atomic Veterans Day, 2024 July 15, 2024 Our military service members and veterans live by a code of duty, putting their lives on the line to keep all of us safe. Few exemplify that creed better than Atomic Veterans. These former members of our Armed Forces not only courageously served our country but also participated in the nuclear tests done between 1945 and 1962 or were exposed to radioactive materials. Today, we honor their service, sacrifice, and dedication to our Nation and recommit to fulfilling the great debt of gratitude we owe them. For five decades, the service members who suffered from the impact of nuclear warfare here at home were forced to remain silent. Many had been present for nuclear testing, posted nearby as atomic bombs detonated. They suffered the consequences for their entire lives, including serious health problems and cancers. For some, the mental scars of what they endured never fully went away. Forbidden from telling anyone, they could never fully disclose their past to their doctors, which delayed diagnoses, while their families struggled to get the benefits they were entitled to. Thousands of Atomic Veterans died before telling their stories. I have often said that our Nation has many obligations, but only one is truly sacred: to prepare those we send into harm's way and care for them and their families when they return. For Atomic Veterans, that began with finally being able to share their stories. The 1996 repeal of the Nuclear Radiation and Secrecy Agreements Act allowed them to tell people what they had experienced so they could receive the benefits they deserved from the Department of Veterans Affairs. But there is still so much more to do. That is why I signed the PACT Act, one of the most significant laws ever to help millions of veterans who were exposed to toxins and other hazards, including radiation and burn pits during their military service. ..."
The cover of the Judy Pasternak's book “Yellow Dirt,” showing yellow dirt forming a partial skull (eye sockets, triangular nasal cavity, and upper teeth) above the title.
A color photograph of a sign erected in dry grass alongside a road and near a fence by the Rio Puerco river after the radioactive spill: “WARNING All use of water from this river is discouraged by the N.M.E.I.D.” (The warning is repeated below that two more times, in Spanish and Navajo)
A color photograph of Church Rock, New Mexico, showing a weathered mountaintop resembling a church.
A color photograph of the black lava rock obelisk erected at Ground Zero by US Army personnel in 1965, with the original wooden marker (with “ZERO” written in white paint) laying somewhat forlornly in the dirt a few feet off to the right side.
A black and white photograph of one of the two modified M-4 herman tanks used to collect radioactive soil samples from ground zero shortly after the Trinity test, showing the tank on the desert floor against a mostly cloudy sky.
A photograph of Patrick Stout’s black and white Manhattan Project security badge photo, overlaid with his badge number (M-42).
A black and white photograph of General Leslie Groves, Robert Oppenheimer, and dozen or so other Manhattan Project military and scientific personnel and journalists wearing white protective booties over their shoes and standing and looking down at the melted and twisted base of one of the four legs of the 100-foot steel tower that held the Gadget.
A photograph of Kenneth Bainbridge’s black and white Manhattan Project security badge photo, overlaid with his badge number (U-12).
A black and white portrait of Frank Oppenheimer standing in front of a large metal door with a repeating triangular motif at the Exploratorium in San Francisco (which he founded), holding a thin cane in his hands.
A photograph of J. Robert Oppenheimer’s black and white Manhattan Project security badge photograph, overlaid with his badge number (K-6).
A photograph of Jack Aeby's black and white Manhattan Project security badge photo, overlaid with his badge number (X-152).
A color photograph by Jack Aeby of the Trinity fireball a few milliseconds after detonation. The fireball is bright yellow-orange and the color is reflecting off the ground and the thin clouds above, making the sky look orange.
A copy of the first part of Box 7-5 “A Kodak Moment,” published in “Atomic Audit” in 1998. "Although the AEC had few compunctions about keeping the public in the dark about the hazards of the nuclear testing program, it adopted a different policy for the Eastman Kodak Company of Rochester, New York. On January 27, 1951, the AEC inaugurated its newly established continental test site—the Nevada Proving Ground (now the Nevada Test Site)—by secretly detonating a 1-kiloton nuclear device, code-named Able. Two days later, Geiger counters at Kodak’s film plant on the shores of Lake Ontario detected high levels of radiation as heavy snow blanketed the city. Kodak officials became worried that the radiation would damage film stocks and cause significant financial losses. Having experienced a similar occurrence nearly six years earlier, following the Trinity test, Kodak executives had little doubt that fallout from a nuclear test was responsible. Kodak registered a complaint with the National Association of Photographic Manufacturers, who in turn telegrammed the AEC: 'Tests snowfall Rochester Monday by Eastman Kodak Company give ten thousand counts per minute, whereas equal volume snow falling previous Friday gave only four hundred. Situation serious. Will report any further results obtained. What are you doing?' The following day, the AEC released a statement to the Associated Press that it was 'investigating reports that snow that fell in Rochester was measurably radioactive. The reports ... indicate that there is no possibility of harm to humans or animals ... All necessary precautions, including radiation surveys and patrolling, are being undertaken to insure that safety conditions are maintained.'”
A hand drawn map attached to a July 21, 1945, report by Col. Stafford Warren, the Manhattan Project’s chief medical officer, showing the “path of the cloud NE of zero at 20 miles” on July 16, 1945, 2 hours and 55 minutes after the explosion. Next to a line indicating US Highway 380 is written, “Intensity approximately 50r total for 10 miles along this highway.”
The first page of the linked 2021 “Nuclear Technology” article “A New Yield Assessment for the Trinity Nuclear Test, 75 Years Later.” Here is the abstract: "New measurement and assessment techniques have been applied to the radiochemical reevaluation of the Trinity Event. Thirteen trinitite samples were dissolved and analyzed using a combination of traditional decay counting methods and the mass spectrometry techniques. The resulting data were assessed using advanced simulation tools to afford a final yield determination of 24.8 ± 2 kt TNT equivalent, substantially higher than the previous U.S. Department of Energy released value of 21 kt."