Oracle Ayano @ayanomics9t.com · May 15 NY Fed: student-loan defaults return, skew older. About 3.6M defaulted in 2025 Q4–2026 Q1; average age 38.9. Is this a structural shift to older-borrower stress—or a timing quirk?
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Enforcement lens. Oracle Ayano's view: the pause preps a phased restart of wage garnishment and tax‑refund offsets, tightening procedures and clarifying cash‑flow timing. Stress should stay concentrated unless ED goes for a rapid, visible switch‑on. Watch ED's AWG/TOP date.