Ballot Box Scotland

@ballotbox.scot

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Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Trans rights are human rights. Donate; http://liberapay.com/ballotboxscot

A photograph looking across the Firth of Clyde towards Kilcreggan on a lovely sunny day. A medium sized tanker is making its way upstream, and several small yachts dot the bay nearer the shore
Chart showing second preferences in the by-election. Most popular second preference per party, in percentage terms: Reform to Conservative 36.5 SNP to Labour 42.4 Labour to Conservative 24.8 Conservative to Labour 28.7 Note that a majority of voters at 50.1 for Reform and a plurality of 47.9 for SNP, 47.9 for Labour and 34.8 for Conservative opted not to mark a second preference at all.
Chart showing first preferences by polling district. In percentage terms, best district for each party was Reform 43.3%, SNP 33.5%, Labour 26.3%, Conservative 14.4%
Chart showing second preferences in the by-election. Most popular second preference per party, in percentage terms: SNP to Ind JR 17.9 Reform to Conservative 32.9 Conservative to Reform 23.8 Ind JR to Ind RT 26.7 Ind RT to Ind JR 31.8 Lib Dem to SNP and Ind JR 19.6 Family to Conservative and Ind JR 20.4 Note that a plurality of voters for SNP at 44.4, Reform at 33.1, Conservative at 37.5, and Family at 22.2 opted not to mark a second preference at all.
Chart showing first preferences by polling district. In percentage terms, best district for each party was SNP 42.0, Reform 31.0, Conservative 23.1, Independent Ross 17.7, Independent Thomson 9.0, Lib Dem 3.1, Family 3.9
Chart showing second preferences in the by-election. Most popular second preference per party, in percentage terms: SNP to Green 33.1 Labour to SNP 22.4 Green to SNP 53.4 Reform to Conservative 31.6 Lib Dem to Labour 22.8 Independent to SNP 16.7 Conservative to Lib Dem 20.5 TUSC to Green 45.2 ALS to SNP 30.8 Note that a plurality of voters for SNP at 36.5, Labour at 45.9, Reform at 42.4, Independent at 46.3 and Conservative at 41.8 opted not to mark a second preference at all.
Chart showing first preferences by polling district. In percentage terms, best district for each party was SNP 38.4, Labour 23.0, Green 15.3, Reform 12.3, Lib Dem 12.1, Independent 12.1, Conservative 8.7, TUSC 3.2
Chart showing second preferences in the by-election. Most popular second preference per party, in percentage terms: Independent to Lib Dem 25.5 Lib Dem to Independent 28.9 SNP to Lib Dem 29.0 Reform to Independent and Conservative 19.1 Conservative to Lib Dem 33.9 Note that a plurality of voters for Independent at 47.4, Lib Dem at 38.9, SNP at 39.8 and Reform at 41.5 opted not to mark a second preference at all.
Chart showing first preferences by polling district. In percentage terms, best district for each party was Independent 69.6, Lib Dem 57.8, SNP 19.8, Reform 11.8, Conservative 4.5
To peel away a party’s voters, you must understand what motivates them. In misidentifying Green voters as being SNP at their core, it’s no surprise opponents have failed to stymie the party’s growth. Looking ahead to 2026, the other parties and their commentariat outriders have a simple choice. On the one hand, you can get real about the Greens and come up with a credible strategy to win their voters over. On the other, you can cling to comforting myths – and in the SNP’s case, to a massive dollop of the repellent entitlement that you once derided Labour for. Choose more wisely than Yousaf, or else the chances of Ballot Box Scotland’s post-2026 writeup saying “this is another record result for the Greens” only get higher.
There are lots of reasons why people choose to vote for the party they did, and poll respondents could give more than one, but for the purposes of this piece I'm highlighting two: "Their values are better aligned with mine than those of other parties" - I've shorthanded this as "Values" and it uses the deeper party colour in the chart below. "My priority was to stop another party winning" - I've shorthanded this as "Tactical" and it uses the lighter party colour in the chart below. For each party, the values versus tactical figures are as follows: Green 72% vs 16% SNP 50% vs 10% Lib Dem 50% vs 20% Conservative 46% vs 28% Reform UK 43% vs 14% Labour 37% vs 33%
A photo of the anti-racist crowd in Glaagow - a sign in the centre of the shot reads "Youse are aw boggin"
Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms, SNP 37.4, Labour 23.9, Green 16.2, Conservative 15.3, Lib Dem 4.3, Independent 1.6, Alba 1.3
Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms, Labour 24.1, Green 23.0, SNP 19.2, Conservative 17.6, Lib Dem 16.1
10:48pm VOTES FROM TRINITY – SENATOR: Ian Gorst tops the polls in Trinity for Senator with 815 votes. The full set of results in Trinity for Senators are as follows: Martin Aliga: 199 Tom Binet: 694 Mark Boleat: 598 Alan Breckon: 181 Karl Busch: 59 Guy de Faye: 106 Lyndon Farnham: 731 Ian Gorst: 815 Serena Kersten Guthrie: 569 Mary Le Hegarat: 578 Alan Le Pavoux: 290 Steve Luce: 452 Alan Maclean: 655 Sam Mézec: 258 Helen Miles: 708 Elaine Millar: 753 Bernard Place: 309 These are not the final results for Senator. Once all parishes have announced their vote counts, the 9 elected Senators can be confirmed. Keep checking Vote.je as the results come in over the course of the night.
Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms, Labour 33.0, SNP 28.9, Conservative 24.5, Independent 10.3, Lib Dem 2.4, Libertarian 0.6, UKIP 0.3 Note: the Independent candidate was elected as Labour councillor in 2017.
Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Conservative Gary Burns, Reform UK Fiona McDermott, SNP Leigh Payne, Labour Chris Roarty. Vacating is Labour, 2022 winner is Labour, runner-up SNP, margin of 17.8%. Cause is the death of Lesley McDonald (Labour). By-election is on the 9th of July 2026. Prediction is Labour-Reform Tossup.
Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms, SNP 46.5, Conservative 41.3, Lib Dem 12.2
Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Family Dave Bestwick, Reform Andy Curwen, Conservative Ross Gibb, SNP Angus Matheson, Independent John Ross, Independent Ross Thomson, Lib Dem Tony Ware. Vacating is Independent, 2022 winner is SNP, runner-up Conservative, margin of 8.4%. Cause is the death of George Hall (Independent). By-election is on the 2nd of July 2026. Prediction is SNP-Conservative-Reform Tossup.
A screenshot from the website. The top of the image reads "Parties Automatically Registered The following political parties are automatically registered to contest the 2031 Scottish Parliament Election in any Constituency and Region as they elected MSPs at the 2026 election. These parties do not require signatures to be submitted in order to nominate candidates for the 2031 election." It is then followed by the names and logos of the 6 parties that won seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election: Reform, Conservative, Green, Labour, Lib Dem and SNP.
Note: A purely PR voting system would result in slightly different voter behaviour. However, as we cannot quantify that, the Regional List Vote as-was is used purely for illustrative purposes
A map showing the results of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election using a totally different system based on Scandinavian countries. This is a purely proportional system, with no single-member constituencies. Instead, constituencies all elect several list MSPs. One or two seats per constituency are held back to be allocated at the end of the process based on the national vote. Constituency seat distributions are: Ayrshire, Dumfries and Galloway: 3 SNP, 3 Reform, 2 Conservative, 2 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Lib Dem. Clyde: 4 SNP, 3 Labour, 2 Reform, 2 Green, 1 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem. Glasgow: 4 SNP, 3 Green, 3 Labour, 2 Reform, 1 Conservative. Lanarkshire: 5 SNP, 4 Labour, 3 Reform, 2 Green, 1 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem. Edinburgh: 3 Green, 3 SNP, 2 Labour, 2 Lib Dem, 1 Reform, 1 Conservative. Fife: 3 SNP, 2 Labour, 1 Reform, 1 Green, 1 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem. Forth: 2 SNP, 1 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Conservative. Grampian: 4 SNP, 3 Conservative, 3 Reform, 1 Green, 1 Labour, 1 Lib Dem. Lothian and Borders: 3 SNP, 2 Labour, 2 Reform, 2 Conservative, 2 Green, 1 Lib Dem. Tayside: 3 SNP, 2 Reform, 2 Conservative, 1 Green, 1 Lib Dem, 1 Labour. Highlands South: 2 SNP, 2 Lib Dem, 1 Reform, 1 Green, 1 Conservative. Highlands North and Islands: 2 Lib Dem, 1 SNP, 1 Reform, 1 Green.
A map showing the results of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election using redrawn regions and partly allocating list seats via the national vote. In percentage and then seat terms, this shows regional results of SNP 27.2 and 1 seat; Reform 16.6 and 21 seats; Labour 16.0 and 21 seats; Greens 14.0 and 17 seats; Conservatives 11.8 and 10 seats; Lib Dems 9.4 and 5 seats; Others 5.0 and no seats. This uses new regions. Ayrshire, Dumfries and Galloway list MSPs would be 3 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 Green. Clyde would be 3 Reform, 2 Labour, 2 Green, 1 Conservative. Edinburgh would be 3 Green, 2 Labour, 1 Reform, 1 Conservative. Fife would be 2 Labour, 1 Reform, 1 Green, 1 Conservative. Forth would be 1 Reform, 1 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Conservative. Glasgow would be 3 Labour, 2 Green, 2 Reform. Grampian would be 2 Conservative, 2 Reform, 1 Green, 1 Labour, 1 Lib Dem. Highlands North and Islands would be 1 Reform, 1 Conservative, 1 Green. Highlands South would be 2 Lib Dem, 2 Reform, 1 Green, 1 Conservative, 1 Labour. Lanarkshire would be 3 Labour, 3 Reform, 1 Green, 1 Conservative. Lothian and Borders would be 2 Reform, 1 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem. Tayside & Mearns would be 2 Conservative, 1 Reform, 1 Green, 1 Lib Dem.
A map showing the results of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election if there were two extra list MSPs per region. In percentage and then seat terms, this shows regional results of SNP 27.2 and 1 seat; Reform 16.6 and 21 seats; Labour 16.0 and 21 seats; Greens 14.0 and 17 seats; Conservatives 11.8 and 10 seats; Lib Dems 9.4 and 5 seats; Others 5.0 and no seats. The extra seats are Labour, Green and Reform in Central Scotland and Lothians West; Reform and Labour in Edinburgh and Lothians East; Greens and Reform in Glasgow; Conservatives and Lib Dems in Highlands and Islands which was already correctly proportional; Green and Lib Dem in Mid Scotland and Fife; Conservative, Reform and Conservative in North East Scotland; Labour and Green in South Scotland; Reform and Labour in West Scotland.
A map showing the results of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election if correcting for overhang by simply handing out the seats to the parties that would have won them without the SNP excess. In percentage and then seat terms, this shows regional results of SNP 27.2 and 1 seat; Reform 16.6 and 24 seats; Labour 16.0 and 17 seats; Greens 14.0 and 18 seats; Conservatives 11.8 and 10 seats; Lib Dems 9.4 and 4 seats; Others 5.0 and no seats. The extra seats are Labour, Green and Reform in Central Scotland and Lothians West; Reform in Edinburgh and Lothians East; Greens and Reform in Glasgow; nothing in Highland which was already correctly proportional; Green, Lib Dem and Reform in Mid Scotland and Fife; Conservative, Green and two Reform in North East Scotland; Labour and Green in South Scotland; Reform, Labour and Conservative in West Scotland.
A map showing the results of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election if list seats were allocated based on the national vote. In percentage and then seat terms, this shows regional results of SNP 27.2 and no seats; Reform 16.6 and 18 seats; Labour 16.0 and 14 seats; Greens 14.0 and 13 seats; Conservatives 11.8 and 8 seats; Lib Dems 9.4 and 3 seats; Others 5.0 and no seats. This does create some odd aspects, for example Labour getting a list MSP in Highlands and Islands, whilst the Greens drop one in Edinburgh but gain an extra in Glasgow.
A map showing the results of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election if using Sainte-Laguë instead of D'Hondt. In percentage and then seat terms, this shows regional results of SNP 27.2 and no seats; Reform 16.6 and 17 seats; Labour 16.0 and 13 seats; Greens 14.0 and 12 seats; Conservatives 11.8 and 10 seats; Lib Dems 9.4 and 4 seats; Others 5.0 and no seats. Seat changes versus D'Hondt are an additional Conservative in Glasgow (at Labour's expense) and Highlands and Islands (at SNP's); a Lib Dem in Central Scotland and Lothians West (at Reform's expense); Reform in Edinburgh and Lothians East (at Greens' expense).
A map showing the actual results of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. In percentage and then seat terms, this shows regional results of SNP 27.2 and 1 seat; Reform 16.6 and 17 seats; Labour 16.0 and 14 seats; Greens 14.0 and 13 seats; Conservatives 11.8 and 8 seats; Lib Dems 9.4 and 3 seats; Others 5.0 and no seats. The regional result is what matters for proportionality and the same throughout the rest of this thread. The constituency vote is likewise shown as SNP 38.2 and 57 seats, Reform 15.8 and no seats, Labour 19.2 and 3 seats, Greens 2.3 and 2 seats, Conservatives 11.8 and 4 seats, Lib Dems 11.4 and 7 seats, Others 1.4 and no seats.
A map showing the Strathkelvin and Bearsden constituency and some of its key statistics in the 2026 election. Most notably, it shows the constituency tinted SNP Yellow on the region inset map, due to a 42 vote SNP over Lib Dem vote lead on the regional list vote.
A chart showing the regional vote % by time of day, if they had been declared simultaneously per constituency. This starts with the SNP first, Greens second, an effective tie on third and fourth for Labour and the Lib Dems, Reform fifth, and Conservatives sixth. By 2pm, Reform pull ahead of Labour and remain there the whole time. After a short period in which the order of declarations put the Conservatives ahead of the Greens, the correct final order of SNP in first, Reform second, Labour third, Greens fourth, Conservatives fifth, and Lib Dems sixth is reached by 4.30pm. A note on the chart reads: In reality, the regional votes per constituency were typically declared later than the constituency vote, and counting both votes at once would take slightly longer. For ease of comparison however, this follows the same timings as the constituency vote chart.
A chart showing the constituency vote % by time of day. This begins at 1pm with the SNP in a clear first with the Lib Dems second, reflecting that the first declaration had been from Orkney. Labour are initially third, Reform fourth, the Conservatives fifth, and Greens sixth. Early declarations lead to significant changes, such that by 3pm the chart has settled into the correct order of parties: SNP first, Labour second, Reform third, Conservatives fourth, Lib Dems fifth, Greens sixth.
Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Lib Dem Tanvir Ahmad, SNP Lara Bird, Conservative Jack Cruickshanks, Labour Heather Doran, Reform UK Bill Reid Vacating is SNP, 2024 winner is SNP, runner-up Labour, margin of 1.9%. By-election is on the 18th of June 2026. Prediction is Likely SNP.
Chart of results in 2024. In percentage terms, SNP 32.8%, Labour 24.7%, Conservative 24.4%, Reform UK 6.9%, Lib Dem 6.3%, Green 3.5%, Family 0.9%, Independent 0.5%
Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Labour Nurul Hoque Ali, ADF David Ballantine, Reform UK Jo Hart, Conservative Douglas Lumsden, Green Jorg Shelton-Eckstein, Lib Dem Mel Sullivan, SNP Richard Thomson Vacating is SNP, 2024 winner is SNP, runner-up Labour, margin of 8.1%. By-election is on the 18th of June 2026. Prediction is Lean SNP.
What a disaster for Labour. Two years ago Anas Sarwar thought he had First Minister in the bag. Now he shares a unique bond with Jack McConnell: the only Scottish Labour leaders to lead the party into two successive losses of seats at Holyrood. And here I will have my one true break with non-partisanship to say: good. As a member of Scotland’s LGBT community, a gay man with a trans best friend, I am relieved a man who (along with his party) so completely and utterly betrayed us will not lead this country. Anas Sarwar threw queer people under the bus and published an actively trans-segregationist manifesto, which drove several of Scottish Labour’s most dedicated partisans to advise not voting for the party. He did all of this to build bridges with a bunch of terminally online bigots who have no real presence amongst the electorate at large. And for what? To crash and burn regardless, having utterly alienated a huge number of progressive voters. If you blanche at me saying things like this, maybe consider being more appalled by the hate campaign that Labour have completely capitulated to.
Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms, Lib Dem 35.8, SNP 26.5, Independent 19.0, Conservative 17.0, Libertarian 1.6
Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Reform UK Jay Avrey, Lib Dem Eric de Venny, SNP Rebecca Machin, Independent John Murray, Conservative Eva Short. Vacating is Independent, 2022 winner is Lib Dem, runner-up SNP, margin of 27.7%. By-election is on the 25th of June 2026. Prediction is Lib Dem - Independent Tossup.
Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Independent Aamir Azeem, TUSC Fred Bayer, Reform UK Jordan Brown, Lib Dem Luke Eveling, Green Charlotte Horne, SNP Leon Marwick, Labour Edward Obi, Conservative Marco Ooshuizen, Alliance to Liberate Scotland Konrad Rekas. Vacating is Lib Dem, 2022 winner is SNP, runner-up Labour, margin of 15.8%. By-election is on the 25th of June 2026. Prediction is Likely SNP.
Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms, SNP 42.2, Labour 19.8, Green 13.8, Lib Dem 11.4, Conservative 10.9, Independent 1.8
A photograph showing Dumbarton Rock peeking out over the trees in Levengrove Park. In the centre of the image are several little palm(esque?) trees and a garden centred on an old fountain. You can just make out the buildings of Dumbarton Castle atop the rock.
A map showing the change in Lib Dem constituency vote in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. Strathkelvin and Bearsden; Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch; Inverness and Nairn are all the darkest colour showing the most gains. Caithness, Sutherland and Ross; and Argyll and Bute are also deeply orange. Shetland however is dark black, reflecting the fact it was the only constituency the Lib Dems lost support in.
A screenshot of a map showing the change in Labour's constituency vote at the 2026 Scottish parliament election. Most of the central belt is in varying shades of grey and black, indicating loss of votes, with the darkest shades in and around Glasgow, as well as central Edinburgh and parts of Fife. Light pink indications of increases in vote share are mostly, but not exclusively, limited to seats outside the Renfrewshire, Glasgow, Lanarkshire, Lothian area.
A pair of maps showing the level of marginality per constituency in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, with versions showing lead and runner up party. Information not included in subsequent tweets is that the following constituencies remain marginal: East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs; Banffshire and Buchan Coast; Eastwood; Aberdeenshire East; Dumfriesshire; Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine; Galloway and West Dumfries; Dumbarton; Moray
Screenshot of the final poll projection on BBS before the election. It had SNP 58, CON 10, LAB 16, GRN 15, LD 10, RUK 20. The AMS ideal had 39 SNP, 14 CON, 20 LAB, 19 GRN, 12 LD, 25 RUK
A chart showing the actual and AMS ideal result in each region. Central and Lothians West actual result was 9 SNP, 3 RUK, 2 LAB, 1 GRN, 1 CON. Ideal is 6 SNP, 4 RUK, 3 LAB, 2 GRN, 1 CON. Edinburgh and Lothians East actual result was 5 SNP, 1 RUK, 3 LAB, 4 GRN, 1 CON, 2 LD. Ideal is 4 SNP, 2 RUK, 3 LAB, 4 GRN, 1 CON, 2 LD. Glasgow actual result was 7 SNP, 2 RUK, 3 LAB, 3 GRN. Ideal is 5 SNP, 2 RUK, 4 LAB, 4 GRN. Highlands and Islands actual result was 5 SNP, 2 RUK, 1 LAB, 2 GRN, 1 CON, 4 LD. This is the same as the ideal result. Mid Scotland and Fife actual result was 8 SNP, 2 RUK, 2 LAB, 1 GRN, 2 CON, 1 LD. Ideal result is 5 SNP, 3 RUK, 2 LAB, 2 GRN, 2 CON, 2 LD. North East Scotland actual result was 9 SNP, 2 RUK, 1 LAB, 1 GRN, 3 CON, 1 LD. Ideal is 5 SNP, 4 RUK, 1 LAB, 2 GRN, 4 CON, 1 LD. South Scotland actual result was 7 SNP, 3 RUK, 2 LAB, 1 GRN, 3 CON, 1 LD. Ideal is 5 SNP, 3 RUK, 3 LAB, 2 GRN, 3 CON, 1 LD. West Scotland actual result was 8 SNP, 2 RUK, 3 LAB, 2 GRN, 1 CON, 1 LD. Ideal is 5 SNP, 3 RUK, 4 LAB, 2 GRN, 2 CON, 1 LD. Scotland wide total actual result was 58 SNP, 17 RUK, 17 LAB, 15 GRN, 12 CON, 10 LD. Ideal is 40 SNP, 23 RUK, 21 LAB, 20 GRN, 14 CON, 11 LD.