Nathaniel Rakich

@baseballot.bsky.social

19977 Followers 257 Following

Managing editor @votebeat.org. Previously senior editor and senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Email, don't DM: nrakich at votebeat dot org

A baseball diamond beneath a green building.
A screenshot of the MLB app showing odds for the Mets-Phillies game.
“We are always working to improve our process and products so this year we are including prediction market data from both Kalshi and Polymarket into our forecast. While these markets are relatively new, we believe there is signal to be gleaned from them, especially around the impact of breaking news that may take weeks to show up in polling.” according to Director of Data Science at Decision Desk HQ, Scott Tranter.
A stone building with a pointy rotunda
A baseball box score
A tweet from ProPublica reporter Jen Fifield reading, "NEW: The Trump administration has shut down a controversial Homeland Security tool it had touted as a way to find noncitizens who’d illegally registered to vote, ProPublica has learned."
A tweet that reads, "Pretty diverse political group at this anti-data center rally, including progressive U.S. House candidate Will Lawrence and Republican candidate for governor Perry Johnson."
A tweet saying that Max Engling won the Republican nomination for Indiana secretary of state.
A screenshot of a tweet showing Max Engling with 715 votes, David Shelton with 543, and Diego Morales with 283.
A cartogram of the U.S. House map showing what could happen if both parties gerrymander to the max.
A quote: “If we can’t—as leaders, elected officials, members of the institution that is Congress—model good behavior and how to actually disagree without being disagreeable, how do I expect my constituents or the American people to do that? Now, we have failed at that—let me be very clear. We dehumanize each other left and right. We fail to see to our own better angels, let alone someone else’s. This is one of those places where we can actually be human beings. And again, I have to be an optimist in this work, so I have to believe that it can last beyond tonight, because that’s what the American people deserve. Even if we’re yelling and screaming at each other, I think we have to demonstrate that we can be adults in the room and actually focus on the challenges and problems of this country and come together for solutions. And if it starts at a baseball game, I’ll take it.”
A bunch of empty liquor bottles
A scoreboard showing Nancy Pelosi receiving a red white and blue baseball bat.
A baseball player in a blue uniform standing in front of a Thomas Jefferson mascot.
People in red shirts taking a tarp off a baseball field
Two men in blue and red baseball uniforms that say “USA”
People in red shirts sweeping water off a tarp on a baseball field
A baseball field under a cloudy sky with a tarp on it.
Two batters practicing at baseball.
The meme of James Franco getting hanged and saying, "First time?"
A graph showing Republican-led states scoring worse on voter-accessibility metrics over time, and Democratic-led states scoring better.
Six paragraphs of text on a door.
A tan tower surrounded by palm trees.
Players on a baseball field.
A screenshot of election results showing Andy Barr with 63% and George Washington with 2% in the Republican primary for U.S. senator from Kentucky.
A list of 16 senators, representatives, and governors Trump targeted for defeat in GOP primaries and whether they won or lost.
A line graph showing Ken Paxton's support sagging and John Cornyn's support holding steady.
A chart showing that traditional margin of error missed the actual election result about half the time in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022, and a quarter of the time in 2024.
PLEASE READ THIS: The congressional redistricting in Tennessee has nothing to do with race. I live in Memphis. This is the reality of the situation: Rep. Steven Cohen (D-TN) - a white dude - has represented Memphis in Congress for nearly 20 years. During his tenure, Republicans nominated a BLACK WOMAN as their choice FIVE times. Democrats could have elected a black woman but she was the wrong political persuasion. So, my question to the black Democrats - did you deny Charlotte Bergmann her seat in Congress because of her skin color or her gender? Facts matter. Memphis Democrats loathe black Republicans more than they do white Republicans.
A table showing the decline in competitive House seats in eight states this year due to redistricting.
A map showing how many House seats Democrats and Republicans from redistricting in various states.
A graph showing that there has been more mid-decade redistricting in 2025-26 than in any election cycle since at least 1973-74.
A chart showing that the SAVE America act would move Nevada and New Mexico about 7 points toward Republicans.
A tweet saying Tony Gonzales will retire from Congress tomorrow.
A tweet from Eric Swalwell saying he is resigning from Congress.
An invitation to an event about public opinion and journalism on April 14 at 2pm Eastern.
A promotional pollster for a Roper Center event featuring Nathaniel Rakich, Ariel Edwards Levy, and Philip Bump at 2pm Eastern on April 14.
The score bug on Netflix’s Opening Night broadcast.
A darkened baseball field with an image of a baseball player and American flag projected onto the field
A photograph of Venezuela’s baseball players from above.
A video of fans cheering at a baseball game
A T-shirt reading “Home runs and espresso”
A beer vendor outside a stage.
A beer vendor outside a stage.
A beer vendor outside a stage.
A beer vendor outside a stage.
A baseball diamond.
The pregame show at the World Baseball Classic between the USA and Dominican Republic.