Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social · Jun 19 ECMWF main run is 38.3c on Tuesday: 6c above ensemble mean. Treat it as an outlier? Treat it that it knows something more with its higher resolution? Does it have previous at calling extreme heat better than lower res ensembles? Good example of why the man-machine mix in forecasting is so important.
7 likes 2 replies
?
Replies
It's also what separates the professional forecasters from the online model-watchers: despite a degree/PhD in Meteorology I am definitely in the latter camp.
Nowadays ECMWF deterministic run has the same resolution (~9km) as its ensemble members so the resolution is probably not the reason? 🤔