Willard

@climateball.bsky.social

1015 Followers 774 Following

it's all gavagaï to me list - https://bsky.app/profile/climateball.net/lists/3lbfw54qcw42e pieces - https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/author/neverendingaudit/ project - climateball.net tags - #Climateball #NowPlaying

the author, a manly man
One can hardly overestimate the influence of Sidon’s problems on Erdo˝s’s career. It is remarkable how the twenty-year-old Erdo˝s’s irresistible insistence on math- ematical communication virtually compelled Sidon, a reclusive man employed by an insurance company, to re- veal his remarkable thoughts to the eager youth. A clas- sic anecdote: One afternoon, when Erdo˝s and Turán showed up at Sidon’s doorstep, Sidon opened the door a crack and greeted the two with these words: “Please visit another time and especially another person.”
73% woke, 27% chud; 41% techbro, 59% neo-luddite; 56% hopepilled, 44% doomer; 69% Davos, 31% Dubaï; closest match: Zohran Mamdami
Clay Spence is a seasoned entrepreneur and philosopher with a rich background in founding and leading organizations. Currently serving as the Founder of Nimbus Health since July 2022, Clay has previously held the position of Philosopher in Residence at 8VC from July 2016 to July 2022. Additionally, Clay founded The Cicero Institute, operating from January 2019 to July 2021. Clay earned a Bachelor's degree in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics from Claremont McKenna College, completing studies in May 2016.
Screenshot of Blake Brickman's profile on Ballotpedia
Mugshots of the Cicero Institute's board of directors: Joe Lonsdale, Blake Brickman, Everett Cox, Tyson Hendricksen, Clay Spence, and Aaron Webman
Elon Musk Just Asking Questions
THE NEWS is just rich people paying rich people to tell poor people to blame each other.
George Mason. Antonin Scalia Law School. Enough said.
Katherine Fleming also earns 2M
Diermeier earns almost 2M in compensation per year.
The Vanderbilt family is an American family who gained prominence during the Gilded Age. Their success began with the shipping and railroad empires of Cornelius Vanderbilt, and the family expanded into various other areas of industry and philanthropy. Cornelius Vanderbilt's descendants went on to build grand mansions on Fifth Avenue in New York City; luxurious "summer cottages" in Newport, Rhode Island; the palatial Biltmore House in Asheville, North Carolina; and various other opulent homes. The family also built Berkshire cottages in the western region of Massachusetts; examples include Elm Court (Lenox and Stockbridge, Massachusetts).
Paul Boghossian, Chair Silver Professor of Philosophy, New York University Kwame Anthony Appiah Silver Professor of Philosophy and Law, New York University Kit Fine University Professor, Silver Professor of Philosophy and Mathematics, New York University Joseph Henrich Ruth Moore Professor of Biological Anthropology and Professor of Human Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University Katherine E. Fleming Professor of History, New York University, and President and CEO, J. Paul Getty Trust Jason Merchant Lorna Puttkammer Straus Distinguished Service Professor of Linguistics, University of Chicago Gary Saul Morson Lawrence B. Dumas Professor of the Arts and Humanities; Professor, Slavic Languages and Literatures, Northwestern University Gideon Rosen Stuart Professor of Philosophy, Princeton University Ashley Rubin Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Hawaii Sean Wilentz George Henry Davis 1886 Professor of American History, Princeton University
Screenshot of the Wiki entry on the List of Christian ska bands lead section
old meme by Tom Neenan: PUBLISHER: I hope this is better than your last book idea about a murderer called Hurderer THOMAS HARRIS: Its about a cannibal P: Go on
It seems to me that training beginning PhD students to do research, which has always been hard (unless one is lucky enough, as I have often been, to have a student who just seems to get it and therefore doesn’t need in any sense to be trained), has just got harder, since one obvious way to help somebody get started is to give them a problem that looks as though it might be a relatively gentle one. If LLMs are at the point where they can solve “gentle problems”, then that is no longer an option. The lower bound for contributing to mathematics will now be to prove something that LLMs can’t prove, rather than simply to prove something that nobody has proved up to now and that at least somebody finds interesting.
"Svante Arrhenius was right back in 1920. We experience a runaway greenhouse effect today and will soon go extinct. It's not just fossil fuels. Destroying primary production like forests due to overpopulation is even worse. Burning fossil fuels bought us some time."
a screenshot where "Read "Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries" appears
Area Doomer posts: "UPDATE: The likelihood that humans will go extinct by 2100 is 80%" which is unsupported by the paper he cites
Fig. 7. Simulation of mean global surface temperature scenarios by 2050 replicating historical rates of growth. a) Annual growth of the energy intensity of GDP (y-axis) and annual growth of the emission intensity of energy (x-axis), 30-year moving averages. ‘Best performance’ refers to the year with the largest fall in the carbon intensity of GDP (as the combined effect of the variables in both axis). b) Annual growth of GDP (x-axis) and carbon intensity of the economy (y-axis). ‘Best performance’ refers to the year with the largest fall in GHGe (as the combined effect of the variables in both axis). In panels a) and b) colours in the background represent temperature outcomes by 2050 depending on the evolution of the variables considered. The red area implies global mean temperatures more than 3 °C above pre-industrial levels; the orange area refers to temperatures between 2 °C and 3 °C above pre-industrial levels; the green area represents outcomes below 2 °C. Light circles represent yearly observations; dark circles represent the historical mean; diamonds represent the largest reduction in history for each region. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
Willard says: April 6, 2026 at 8:29 PM Richard M is at step 3 – Saying Stuff: [BDGWX] Loeb says that GHGs are the cause of the increased ASR shown by CERES. [WILLIS] Sorry, bdgwx, but what is “ASR”, and who is “Loeb”? [BDGWX] Absorbed Solar Radiation. Loeb is the principal developer, maintainer, and investigator of CERES. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/01/22/greenhouse-efficiency-2/#comment-4027280 There is very little contrarians can do unless they’re willing to carry their own weight on the Climateball field.
women's section, with ratings
men's section, with ratings
Hate to break it to you but the first LLM was created by Andrey Markov in 1913. He tallied up 20K letters from a famous novel and computed the probability of successions of vowels and consonants, basically training a bigram by hand.
An abrupt jump, then a collapse The most dramatic result comes far into the simulation. After centuries of gradual change, the Gulf Stream suddenly jumps more than 200 kilometers north in just two years. Then, about 25 years later, the AMOC collapses in the model. To be clear, the study is not claiming the real AMOC will collapse in 400 years. This is an idealized scenario meant to explore how the system behaves and what warning signs might show up. But the implication is still unsettling: a rapid, unusual shift in the Gulf Stream’s position could be a precursor to a tipping point collapse, offering one of the clearest early warning indicators scientists have identified so far. Van Westen said the key point is that the warning signal is straightforward to monitor: you can track the Gulf Stream’s path from space, and if it suddenly lurches north, that could be a serious red flag.
a meme i found in the wild, two chaps reading over the shoulder of a third one, the first is Computer Scientists, the second Algebreaic geometers, and the third is Algebraic topologists, and the book is Category theory
Zachary received his PhD from McGill University and was a postdoctoral researcher at the Ecole polytechnique federale de Lausanne in Switzerland in the Transport and Mobility Laboratory (TRANSP-OR). He was Assistant and Associate Professor starting in 2010 in the Concordia University department of Geography, Planning & Environment. In 2021 he joined the Concordia Institute for Information Systems Engineering (CIISE). Professionally he worked as transportation modeler at the Montreal regional public transportation planner, l'Agence metropolitaine de transport. Zachary's research focuses on: the use of emerging technologies in transport-related data collection, computational geospatial data processing, data analysis and inference with statistical and artificial intelligence techniques, and discrete choice experiments.
photo of a church pulpit sea-monster based
falcon probably shitposting again
six players celebrating the 3rd goal of the Czech team
Noah Rotman, without a beard
Yes, Andy. Everything goes so fast when we grow older. Here is the link again: https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2019/02/17/only-connect Don’t click on the link for now! Just look at it. You should notice a date. The post was written in 2019. So yeah, it cannot be recent. So your “it cannot be recent” tells me that you haven’t paid much attention to what I wrote. Now, clicking on the link above should lead you to a post. If you click on the links in it, you’ll see that it leads back here, at Tony’s. Then read the comments. You’ll see Nigel’s comments, at AT’s and at Tony’s. For a guy who keeps posting links with no real explanation, you sure like to be taken by the hand!
I’m sorry I’m so unclear, Andy. Here is the publication you alluded to – Source: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/6224 That’s one Briffa et al. 1998. Here is the publication I cited earlier – Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/35596 That’s another Briffa et al, 1998. Does “beware that there’s more than one “Briffa & al, 1998” make more sense, now? As for the divergence problem, we should also bear in mind that: there is NO systematic [divergence problem] affecting all conifer sites over vast areas of the Northern Hemisphere and that there is also NO single causal mechanism superimposed on the relationship between tree growth and temperature. Source: https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/papers/Buentgenetal2009.pdf None of that matters for the point you try to dodge, i.e. the main reason you mention “Briffa” here is as chum for your Climateball audience. Hence the long stream of consciousness that goes from Lecavalier to Rosenthal, Vinther, Kaufman, orbital cycles, Greenland, Briffa, your favorite Mike, CG I (there is II and contrarians tend to forget III), the divergence problem, Milankovitch cycles, back to your Climate History that is not really a reconstruction, it’s just two data series. I mean, come now.
First things first, Andy: “Briffa et al, 1998″. Then, second things second: “Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstructions” Summing up: (1) not tree ring data, but reconstructions (2) reconstructions-with-an-s (3) only those of 1998 (4) not Briffa’s alone (5) and the tree ring data are not his, which you now concede, albeit a tad too indirectly for an auditor. Had you read the Auditor’s, you’d know it’s not Briffa’s series! See the importance of citing one’s sources properly?
Andy May Author Reply to Willard February 6, 2026 5:00 pm You do have a serious reading problem don’t you: Briffa contributed data: Pallasmaja (Finland), various North American sites (e.g., Mt. Angeles, Pike Peaks), and Russian sites. -1 Reply Willard Reply to Andy May February 6, 2026 5:55 pm That’s too bad, Andy. I suppose “Remember Yamal” won’t ring a bell to you. Perhaps you can answer this simple question: who sent the Auditor the data that the Auditor pretended for years not to have? Also note that you said “Briffa’s data”. There’s shorthand, and then there’s creative license!
“My one proxy in Indonesia is not meant to be a proxy for the globe, only the North Pacific sea surface temperature.” Which is why you overlaid your graph with the remark that the series were 8,500 km away from one another. And also why you splice them on your overarching graph here: https://andymaypetrophysicist.com/2024/12/02/climate-change-over-the-past-4000-years/ And it’s also why you speak of Climate Change over the past 4000 Years. Either it’s just one proxy in Indonesia, one series in Greenland, and two pet reconstructions (not that they’re good, they’re all bad), or it’s something that is supposed to represent Climate Change over the past 4000 Years. Which is it?
Look, Andy. You can’t reject reconstructions as bad in one comment, and then turn around and say that they’re good enough to make a likeliness claim. If you say something about the very deep past, you need a reconstruction. If you reject reconstructions, then you can’t say anything about the very deep past. Including that anything is likely or unlikely. There’s a difference between producing an estimate that rests on data and models, and expressing contrarian incredulity. Considering your meandering post, it’s unclear that you make the difference. Is that clearer?
Let me offer you this very simple argument: (A1) All reconstructions are wrong, including mine. (A2) While it is remotely possible that current Arctic or global average temperature is higher than any seen in the past 6,800 years, it is very unlikely You can’t claim both. So which one do you prefer?
Andy May - You must be drunk commenting, that comment makes no sense at all. Explain when you sober up. I literally cannot make any sense of it all. You will need to explain what you mean.
From: To: lijeff epstein" <jeevacation@gmail.com> Subject: Warren Date: Mon, 20 Jan 2014 20:39:03 +0000 Importance: Normal Frog said the results will be in tomorrow. Expected to be bad. I told warren and frog, and I'll tell you. Everything I learned in my life I learned from you guys. End of story. Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
John N-G on September 7, 2024 8:21 PM at 8:21 pm said: I’ve seen that term before, but wondered what it meant, and what famous physicist Murray Gell-Mann had done wrong to deserve to be tied to such a phenomenon. Further reading (Wikipedia) reveals that the term was coined and defined by author Michael Crichton, who discussed it once with Gell-Mann and then named it after him to give it ironic credibility. It refers to an expert recognizing the errors in their own field but assuming articles about unfamiliar topics from the same source are correct. Since I’m a climate scientist and Crichton is a global warming denier, I can easily recognize the errors in his denialism. Thus, in order to avoid Gell-Mann amnesia, I should avoid believing anything else he says. This necessarily includes his definition of Gell-Mann amnesia. Hence it doesn’t exist. So I may as well believe that it does exist. Hence it does exist. But to avoid it…
the pick your battles meme
example of a post whose likes are from account i would like to mute or block
art cover of the album 1979
Is there a limit to our ability to adapt to climate change? Back in the early 1980s, Julian Simon, an economist, and Paul Ehrlich, a biologist, debated whether there are “limits to growth.” Simon, the optimist, argued that on a planet featuring almost 8 billion people with rising human capital and access to venture finance, human ingenuity will play a central role in devising solutions to any emerging challenge that materializes. The rise of the COVID-19 vaccine is just one example. Of course, there are limits to adaptation, and this is why I strongly support the introduction of a carbon tax that rises over time. While I support this prudent public policy, the global collective action problem is so severe that I do not believe that a credible binding treaty will be signed. Global GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions will continue to rise, and thus we must adapt. My work explores the microeconomics of the adaptation challenge. The anticipation of mass misery caused by climate change creates new opportunities for entrepreneurs and leaders who devise private sector and public sector solutions that improve our quality of life.
Patrick Brown, who some may recall had an excellent response to some of Pat Frank’s nonsense, has written an article claiming that he left out the full truth to get his climate change paper published. The suggestion is that there are only certain narratives that are acceptable and that he had to present results that suited this narrative in order to get his paper published in this high-impact journal.
NFL Playoffs new icon that just appeared
Trump signed an executive order on Friday that provided some details on how the US plans to block courts or creditors from tapping any revenue from those oil sales. Venezuela owes international bondholders, oil companies and others as much as $170 billion — one reason why US firms have been reluctant to help rebuild the country’s infrastructure. Trump told ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance last week that the US is “not going to look at what people lost in the past, because that was their fault.” The administration official told Semafor that the interim leadership in Venezuela, led by former Maduro No. 2 Delcy Rodríguez, has “fully cooperated” since the US-Venezuelan energy deal was announced last week, adding that the US has “leverage” through sanctions and oil sales.
Meynard's famous infographic of Napoleon's wars
A post-American Internet that is possible because Trump has mobilized new coalition partners to join the fight on our side. In politics, coalitions are everything. Any time you see a group of people suddenly succeeding at a goal they have been failing to achieve, it's a sure bet that they've found some coalition partners, new allies who don't want all the same thing as the original forces, but want enough of the same things to fight on their side. That's where Trump came from: a coalition of billionaires, white nationalists, Christian bigots, authoritarians, conspiratorialists, imperialists, and self-described "libertarians" who've got such a scorching case of low-tax brain worms that they'd vote for Mussolini if he'd promise to lower their taxes by a nickel.
HISTORY In an old photograph, you can find me picketing outside Breslin's Plumbing & Plating. Spring, April 12, 1951, lilacs are in bloom on the divider strip of the Outer Drive. After dark I'll cut a small branch to give my mother. She loves both the color and the bouquet. She still lives in the only house she ever owned. The house, the lical bushes, the perfume of the blooms, her joy and sadness as she places them in a cut-glass vase my father gave her the year before he died, none of this is in the photograph taken from the *Detroit Free Press* and pasted in her lost scrapbook. That photograph is part of history. It's filed on microfilm in the archives of Labor & Urban Affairs at Wayne State and eve now must be turned into dust, giving up its facts & its faces.
screenshot of the abstract, with an emphasis on "The proof of this result was obtained in conjunction with Google Gemini and related tools."
A list of Elizabeth Warren donors.
We are in a loser epidemic. The streets are being terrorized by men too afraid to reveal their faces. The government is run by pedophiles. Technology is run by friendless loners who create algorithms to divide us. The simplest activism you can do today is to smile at a stranger, chat up someone you don't know. Remind each other of our shared humanity and that we're not as divded as they want us to be. Because we have each other and they have no one. -- nikitadumptruck
North America's Top 20 Cleanest energy grid