Gavin Schmidt

@climateofgavin.bsky.social

38346 Followers 825 Following

Climate scientist, juggler. Bikes etc. Blogging at https://www.realclimate.org - data visualization, explainers, and debunking.

Lake mendota. Early morning sunrise with ducks.
French stamp from World Cup of 1938. Scott# 349
Troy to Ithaca by bus,train,bus and walking. 5h 49 min.
Current air quality map for NYC and surrounding area. It is all red or purple - the AQI in the centre says 183.
PM2.5 concentrations at Washington DC National Airport (site 110010051) for 2025. July 4th has over 5 times as much pollution as the next highest day. Data from EPA https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data/download-daily-data
Brighton beach, Brooklyn.
From the NYTimes live updates: “On Tuesday, Lander said TK Goldman said TK”
Hello there, says the white tailed deer on the beach.
Projections over time showing the differences from 2000-2050 from Hansen et al (1988) (both A and C are now wildly off, B isn't too bad), the SRES scenarios (also not too bad), the RCPs (all still pretty close to obs), and the new CMIP7 scenarios which don't start to diverge until the earl 2030s. Note this is for the direct effect of WMGHGs only.
A history of climate model scenarios - the radiative forcing from well mixed greenhouse gases - from Hansen et al 1988 to van Vuuren et al (2026).
A bar with an ‘open’ sign
Comparison of approximate radiative forcings across different sets of projections, starting with Hansen et al (1988), SRES (CMIP3), RCPs (+ extensions beyond 2100) (CMIP5) on top of the latest CMIP7 projections (Fig. 2f from Van Vuurren et al, 2026). This includes the direct effects of CO2, CH4, N2O and CFCs, but did not include aerosols (-ve) or ozone (+ve) (small effects on this scale) so there is a slight adjustment down to compensate. This maybe subject to revision!
Comparison of CMIP3 models run in early 2000s against subsequent global mean temperature changes. They line up quite nicely…
Time series of break up dates for ice on the Tanana river at Nenana, and the Yukon River at Dawson City. Very tightly correlated year to year, but with clear trends towards earlier break ups since the 1960s.
A global map of the relative warming rate (1970-2025). Anywhere over 1 is warming faster than the globe - which encompasses almost all land area, particularly in the NH. Europe is warming at more than 2x the global mean, and the Arctic is warming 3x as fast.
Earthset from Artemis II. art002e009288 (April 6, 2026) – Earthset captured through the Orion spacecraft window at 6:41 p.m. EDT, April 6, 2026, during the Artemis II crew’s flyby of the Moon. A muted blue Earth with bright white clouds sets behind the cratered lunar surface. The dark portion of Earth is experiencing nighttime. On Earth’s day side, swirling clouds are visible over the Australia and Oceania region. In the foreground, Ohm crater has terraced edges and a flat floor interrupted by central peaks—formed when the surface rebounded upward during the impact that created the crater.
Map of local temperature trends from GISTEMP from 1970-2025. It's warming faster over land than the ocean, more in the North than in the South, and most of all in the Arctic. Red covers the regions that have warmed more than 2ºC - which is basically all NH extratropical land areas. Sorry.
Seven data sets all agreeing on the overall surface temperature trends from 1850 to 2025.
A correction was made on April 9, 2026: An earlier version of this article misstated a distinction held by the physicist John Clauser. He has received a Nobel Prize, not a Pulitzer Prize.
Hundreds of stuffies wondering why this night is different from all other nights…
time series of NZ official emissions in CO2e for CO2, CH4 and other ghgs. CO2 and CH4 peak around 2006 and have decreased slightly since then.
Symmetric view of mottled cloudy sky and pine trees reflected in Gates Pond, Hudson MA.
Surface temperature trends from 1965 to 2025. More warming on land than sea, more in the north than in the south, and most of all in the Arctic.
figure 3 from Marks-Peters et al. on comparisons of CO2 estimates.
CMIP6 trends over the last 13 years (red) and the 13 years before (black) (using the screened simulations), along with the estimate trends from FR26 over (roughly) the same periods.
Global sea level rise since 1993 showing the data currently on the NASA SLR site and new updated data from Josh Willis (JPL), showing slightly stronger acceleration in recent years.
Snow, snow, more snow, and possibly some kind of bush underneath.
Current fuel mix in the Texas ERCOT grid. Showing more than a third of electricity today (Feb 10, 2026) is coming from wind power.
Detail from Washington crossing the Delaware (1851) by Leutze showing the river covered in mini ice bergs instead of pancake ice.
View from Harlem piers across the Hudson showing pancake river ice moving upstream with some ridging.
Roy Spencer wondering why Will Happer is a hack.
View over a snow covered lake with snow mobile tracks going off into the distance and a cold looking sun to the right.
A stamp from the Danish West Indies (which became the US Virgin Islands in 1917). As part of the deal, the US agreed that Denmark would retain sovereignty over Greenland.
Principal Skinner of the Simpsons meme: Is it possible that I don't understand attribution of extreme events? No, it's the scientists who must be wrong.
A time series of the highest rainfall in an hour per year since 1948 in Central Park. There is some year to year variability, but the trend towards higher amounts is clear. The values first exceeded the city sewer capacity in 1995, then again in 2003, 2005, 2021, 2023, and 2025.
Comparison of observations with CMIP6
Time series of global temperature anomalies from 1980 to present with predictions for 2025 (made in Dec 2024), and 2026, along with the YTD estimate for the 2025 (with only one month to go).
observations of three satellite channels reflecting temperatures in the stratosphere (20 to 40 km above the surface) and model simulations of the same all trending down since 1979 (with some variability associated with solar variability and volcanic effects). Trends are predominantly driven by CO2 increases (with some effect from ozone depletion).
New Zamboni at the Central Park Davis Center rink…
“Now we have digital imagery. We have elevation to a 10th of an inch. We know what's actually in a 100-year floodplain."
Most of the cabins had been located in FEMA's 100-year "Special Flood Hazard Area" up until 2013. That's when the camp petitioned FEMA to remove most of the cabins from floodplain maps, says the lawsuit filed by the families of five campers and two counselors. The move did nothing but spare the Eastlands costly insurance premiums and expensive renovations, the filing states.
Time series of the last 20 years of global mean temperatures and a highly significant linear trend through them along with the uncertainty on the trend.
Time series of annual GISTEMP data from 1880 onwards with an estimate for 2025 based on Jan-Oct data showing that it will be cooler than 2024, but probably a little warmer than 2023.
Sprinkling of snow on a shiso plant
Tomatoes and a few turnips - somewhat aesthetically arranged.
I voted early.
US Scott# 961. Celebrating a century of friendship between the US and Canada showing the old Niagara Suspension Bridge (replaced with the Whirlpool Rapids Bridge in 1897).
US Scott #835 150th Anniversary of the Constitution 1938
Quote from “what we can know” by Ian McEwan. “He derived his analysis from the press - a former solicitor turned columnist, an Australian poet and critic, an ex-Chancellor of the Exchequer.”
Climate stripes spotted somewhere along on the Embankment
Me standing next to a prince. On a stage. Holding a large glass object.
Time series from 1850 to 2050 showing the CMIP6 model spread (grey) and constrained spread (pink), compared to GISTEMP observations. Projections are shown as the mean of the model spread, a linear trend from 1970, and a projection from Hansen et al (2024). The mean of the constrained projections shows an acceleration over the linear trend and is not distinguishable from the Hansen projection.
We're all trying to find the guy who did this [guy in a hot dog costume meme]
Barosaurus and ceiling.
A heavily laden e-cargo bike on a ferry. Island in the distance.
Climate predictions made 20 years ago compared to the world that actually happened.
Satellite view of Manhattan
Pop up from Disney+ confirming that the subscription has been cancelled.
Climateworkinggroup.com showing a 404 error.
“The hypocrisy is notable, because hypocrisy is a virtue to fascists. Hypocrisy is a primary fascist virtue, an intrinsic component of its core virtue, which is dominating the lives of others with violence and abuse.” A.A.Moxon