CNTR | Arms Control Research

@cntrarmscontrol.org

486 Followers 117 Following

This is the Cluster for Natural and Technical Science Arms Control Research (CNTR) | Based @prif.org, @tuda.bsky.social and @jlugiessen.bsky.social | With funding from @diplo.de https://www.cntrarmscontrol.org/

Malte Göttsche from CNTR and Darius Rahimi from the Federal Foreign Office cut the red ribbon to officially open the laboratory.
We see a broadening use of AI in all areas of the military from logistics and mission planning to target identification and autonomous weapons systems. AI is used in research and development, for instance in chemistry and biology. There they can do important contributions for advancing research, but they can also be misused and create new security threats. AI itself and the resources it requires, such as semiconductors or rare earth minerals, themselves become objects to geopolitical power competition and tensions. In our new publication of the Cluster for Natural and Technical Science Arms Control Research, we address these questions. How can one prevent the most harmful effects of AI to security? But also, how can one harness the potential that AI brings, for instance, by supporting the verification and monitoring of arms control? The new issue of our CNTR monitor, entitled “New Realities of AI in Global Security”, is now available open access under monitor.cntrarmscontrol.org
Group of people standing on staircase with publications in their hands
Image shows the cover of the CNTR Monitor 2025 with the title "New Realities of AI in Global Security" and the text: CNTR Monitor 2025 - Focus. How artificial intelligence impacts global security: Geopolitics of chip production. AI 'arms race' talk. AI in the military. AI developments in... Biotechnology, Chemistry, Verification. Published on November 6, 2025.
Stack of boxes with some publications stacked on top of it, the publications have a blue and red cover with a photo of a landscape on it and the title "CNTR Monitor 2025"
Periodic table of elements with a focus on Plutonium. Foto: Vedrana Filipović via Unsplash.
An illustration depicting various elements of nuclear archeaology. It includes scientists in lab coats, laboratory equipment such as beakers and cooling towers, a chalkboard with chemical structures, a nuclear bomb, a computer with a brain graphic on the screen, a network of connected nodes, yellow barrels with the symbol of radioactivity, and industrial pipes.
Steps in the Screening Process. Three Steps. Step one: Customer. Is the customer legitimate? (known researcheer/lab in the scientific community) Step two: Order. Are there red flags in the order details, e.g. shipping adress, payment, device authorization? Step three: Sequence. Does the ordered sequence pose a biorisk? Does the customer have a legitimate use case and appropriate oversight?
The image describes the step-by-step process of Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS), starting with the text 'DNA extraction' and an image of a tubule containing cells and an enlarged image of DNA. An arrow points to the next image, which shows scissors cutting DNA and the cut segments of DNA being flattened and lined up. The text above the image reads “Fragmentation of input genomes”. An arrow points to the third image with the text ”Attaching adaptors for barcoding and preparation of a sequencing library”. The image shows adaptors being attached to both sides of the flattened, cut DNA segments. An arrow points to the text “Simultaneous and independent sequencing of millions of fragments”, next to an image of DNA bases sequenced “ATTCG”. The last arrow points to an image of a computer with the text “Bioinformatics: Assembly of sequences, annotation”.
Image shows text: CNTR Monitor 2024. Analyses · Biotechnology. Dual-Use Risks of Oncolytic Virus Engineering. Certain biotechnologies have the potential to facilitate pathogen engineering, increasing the risk of large-scale biological events, e.g., major pandemics. This article assesses the dual-use potential of viral engineering using the example of oncolytic viruses. It also offers recommendations for managing the biosecurity risks associated with this research.
Image shows text: CNTR Monitor 2024. Analyses · Emerging Disruptive Technologies. A Global Perspective on New Military Technologies in National Security Strategies. How do states view technology in the context of security policy? A comparative analysis of the national security strategies (NSS) of twelve countries between 2017 and 2023 shows that there are different approaches to how security and technology are conceived. There is both consensus and divergence with respect to relevant technologies, and there are groups of “like-minded” states. NSS tend to take a comprehensive view of security, which is why dual-use technologies, especially in the cyber domain, AI or network technologies, are in focus – either as military resources or as threats. This poses considerable challenges for arms control.
Two doves in front of red backgrop with snowflakes and text "Searching for Peace. Season's Greetings".
Image shows text: CNTR Monitor 2024. Trends · Biotechnology. Implications of Technological Advancements for Biosecurity. This chapter explores strategies for safeguarding against biological threats. It begins by examining a selection of pathogen identification methods, providing an overview of their technical capabilities, shortcomings, and underlying principles. The second part of the chapter provides a broader analysis of biological attacks, discussing microbial forensics and the potential of attribution of genetic engineering.
Screenshot of the online publication. On light yellow ground the chapter title "Technological Implications of AI in Biorisk" is written, followed by the text's abstract: AI has increasingly been a topic of discussion in conventional arms control, battlefield management, and data analysis, as seen in contexts such as Ukraine and Gaza. Simultaneously, the growing influence of AI in various fields highlights the need for renewed discussions on policy and governance. This chapter aims to explore the potential implications of the convergence of biological sciences with AI. First, the numerous benefits that can arise at this intersection will be examined (with examples in biodefence and bioweapons/genetic engineering attribution). Then an analysis of the associated risks and suggestions for mitigation will be provided. Though some of these risks could be generalizable across biology and chemistry (e.g., using AI for a molecule/sequence design), this report focuses largely on the biological risks.
Screenshot of the online publication. On light yellow ground the chapter title "Additive Manufacturing in Warfare" is written, followed by the text's abstract: The following is a brief overview of the dynamics of additive manufacturing (AM) for military purposes as a means of industrial and (unconventional) decentralized production of armaments and equipment. The latter has developed particularly rapidly, both in an industrial setting and in the hobbyist sector, leading to new security risks. Currently, AM is sparsely regulated, and innovative approaches are needed to tackle the challenges of global proliferation of self-manufactured 3D-printed armaments. Moreover, dual-use regulations would make it easier to control the proliferation of industrial machines that are capable of producing security-relevant technology.
Screenshot of the online publication. On light yellow ground the chapter title "Technical, Military, and Political Developments in the Field of Drones" is written, followed by the text's abstract: Today’s wars are increasingly characterized by the vital role played by drones. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and the war in Ukraine are often apostrophized as “drone wars.” Yet, the full scope of operations that will be possible with the latest and especially future generations of drones is only just beginning to emerge. There is, however, some confusion surrounding the term “drone,” as many different types are subsumed under it. In this chapter, a technical distinction is first made between different types of drone before outlining the new military possibilities and future developments.
Screenshot of the online publication. On light yellow ground the chapter title "Artificial intelligence, semiconductors and the military" is written, followed by the text's abstract.
Image shows text: We are hiring! Researchers (PhD/PostDoc) Science for Nuclear Diplomacy. In the corner there is a nuclear icon and an icon of a magnifying glass with a checkmark.
Five people standing in front of three roll-ups
Group of people in front of the German Federal Foreign Office
Group of people in formal clothing in a room next to a conference table
Image shows the cover of the publication CNTR Monitor 2024 with the title "Perspectives on Dual Use", the CNTR logo and a picture. The picture shows different images in the form of rays: a person with a microscope, a person in a radiation protection suit, a flying drone, a large cloud of smoke, a shelf full of medication and a computer chip. Superimposed on the images is the Earth's grid of degrees with various icons: a computer with crosshairs, a magnifying glass with a hook, an Erlenmayer flask, a DNA strand, a drone, an atom, 3D printing, a satellite and artificial intelligence.
Image shows the cover of the publication CNTR Monitor 2024 with the title "Perspectives on Dual Use", the CNTR logo and a picture. The picture shows different images in the form of rays: a person with a microscope, a person in a radiation protection suit, a flying drone, a large cloud of smoke, a shelf full of medication and a computer chip. Superimposed on the images is the Earth's grid of degrees with various icons: a computer with crosshairs, a magnifying glass with a hook, an Erlenmayer flask, a DNA strand, a drone, an atom, 3D printing, a satellite and artificial intelligence. Next to the cover there is the text: CNTR Monitor 2024. Trends: Artificial Intelligence, Drones, Additive Manufacturing, Biotechnology. Analyses: Emerging Disruptive Technologies in Security Strategies. Dual-use risks of Oncolytic Virus Engineering. Published on November 21, 2024
Three brochures with orange and blue covers with several icons and the text "CNTR Monitor Technologie und Rüstungskontrolle 2024. Perspektiven auf Dual Use"
Mann und Frau mit Mikrofonen auf Podium
Drei Personen auf Podium
Video-Animation eines Würfels, über dem steht "What's our common ground?", auf dem Würfel selbst steht: "Berlin Science Week. 1-10 November 2024." und dann auf der anderen Seite "How can science bridge divides?". Am Ende erscheint der Text: "Join our Programme! Leibniz-Institut für Friedens- und Konfliktforschung"
Porträt von Frank Kuhn
Cover of the review article. Title: "What does artificial intelligence mean for arms control?" The picture shows a futuristic looking network in blue, brown, black and white colours.
Venn-Diagramm, das die Entwicklung der Problemlösungsfähigkeiten von KI zeigt. Im innersten Kreis steht: Large Language Models (LLM) textbasiert, im nächst größeren Kreis steht Large Multimodal Models (LMM) verarbeiten auch Bild, Audio, Video. Im nächst größeren Kreis steht Generative KI erzeugt auch Bild, Audio, Video. Im äußersten Kreis, der nur durch eine gestrichelte Linie angedeutet ist, steht Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) hochgradig flexibel, nicht auf bestimmte Problemlösung optimiert
Schematische Abbildung eines Künstlichen Neuronalen Netzes: Ein Bild einer Landkarte steht stellvertretend für Trainingsinformationen in Form von Texten, Bildern oder Videos. Die Landkarte wird in kleine Teile zerlegt, von diesen Teilen reichen Pfeile zu Knotenpunkten, die wiederum mit weiteren Knotenpunkten in weiteren Schichten verknüpft sind. Im Bild ist angedeutet, dass dazwischen viele weitere Schichten liegen. Am Ende führen die Verbindungen zu zwei Knotenpunkten, vom einen führt ein Pfeil zum Text "Output A", vom anderen führt ein Pfeil zum Text "Output B".
Veranstaltungsflyer: Bild eines Raums mit Menschen und Text: "Was darf Forschung? Eine Unterhausdebatte über die Freiheit und Grenzen von Wissenschaft. 5. Juli 2024, 21 Uhr Leopoldina, Halle. Eintritt frei." Darunter befinden sich die Logos des Bundesministeriums für Bildung und Forschung, der Leopoldina Nationale Akademie der Wissenschaften, von Wissenschaft im Dialog und vom Wissenschaftsjahr 2024 Freiheit.
geöffnetes Buch, auf der sichtbaren Seite steht "2024 / Aufrüstung einhegen / Rüstungsdynamiken"
Portrait von Malte Göttsche
Frank Kuhn, Liska Suckau und Thomas Reinhold
Six squares show the benefits and characteristics of additive manufacturing: 1. Design freedom: diverse geometries and material compositions 2. lightweight design and one-component parts 3. high degree of customisation 4. on-demand manufacturing and rapid prototyping 5. decreased material consumption 6. no tooling or mould needed to create volume
Group of people standing in front of screen with CNTR logo.
Three people on panel
Stefan Sammito, Liska Suckau and Niklas Schörnig on the panel on Human Enhancement/Human Augmentation.
Speakers and chairs of the panel are discussing the role of AI in chemical weapons in the hybrid conference room.
Kadri Reis delivers a presentation on the panel next to Silke Bellmann and Una Jakob.
Program flyers with an image of a hand and the title "Tech Trend Lab 2024"
Illustration of the AM Production Categories: Vat photopolymerisation, Material jetting, Binder jetting (3d printing), Material extrusion, Sheet lamination, Powder bed fusion, Directed energy deposition
Sharepic mit Text #DFS2024 Deutsches Forum Sicherheitspolitik. 13. - 17. Mai 2024, einer Sprechblase mit dem Text "Diskutieren Sie mit!" und 11 Logos von Institutionen
Fünf Personen stehen vor Roll-ups von CNTR, TraCe und PRIF
Sechs Personen sitzen auf Podium neben einem gelben Banner mit der Aufschrift Arbeitsgemeinschaft für Friedens- und Konfliktforschung (AFK).
Frank D. Kuhn von PRIF präsentiert zum Thema Hyperschallwaffen.
Präsentation zu Human Enhancement von Prof. Dr. Bernhard Koch (ITFH) und Dr. Niklas Schörnig (PRIF).
Präsentation der Analyse von Strategiepapieren von CNTR-Mitgliedern Liska Suckau und Abdullah Korkusuz.
Mitglieder von CNTR beim AFK-Kolloquium 2024, v.l.n.r.: Dr. Thomas Reinhold, Liska Suckau, Frank D. Kuhn, Prof. Dr. Christian Reuter und Abdullah Korkusuz.
Bild zeigt Text: Rasanter Anstieg der Rechenleistung. 2 Qubits. Der erste Quantencomputer – entwickelt am MIT 1998. Er kann nur bis vier zählen, simuliert aber bereits erfolgreich ein Quantensystem. 133 Qubits. Der IBM Quantum Heron, vorgestellt im Dezember 2023, ist robust und flexibel genug, um als Rechenwerkzeug in der Wissenschaft verwendet zu werden. 1225 Qubits. Die Firma Atom Computing stellt Oktober 2023 den ersten Quantencomputer mit mehr als 1000 Qubits vor – eine besondere Herausforderung, da mit der Zahl an Qubits auch die Fehleranfälligkeit steigt. 10000 Qubits. Dieser noch theoretische Quantencomputer könnte laut japanischen Forschern von Fujitsu möglicherweise in 104 Tagen einen heute üblichen 2048-bit RSA Encryption Key knacken.
Das Schaubild zeigt die "Generationen der Quantentechnologie". Die erste Generation folgte auf die Entwicklung der Quantentheorie in den 1930er Jahren. Sie ist heute weitläufig in Gebrauch. Beispiele sind: Laser, integrierte Schaltkreise, Satelliten und GPS, Atomuhr und Magnetresonanztomografie (MRT). Die zweite Generation befindet sich in der Entwicklungsphase oder ist seit kurzem in ersten Anwendungen auf dem Markt. Der Kern ist die präzise Kontrolle von einzelnen Quantensystemen. Beispiele sind: Quantenrepeater, Quantensimulatoren, Quantenbildgebung, Quantengravimeter, universelle Quantencomputer, Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) und Quantenmagnetometer.
Bild zeigt Überschrift "Säulen der Quantentechnologie" und dann vier Icons mit einer erklärenden Überschrift: Computing, Kommunikation, Sensorik, Bildgebung. Am unteren Rahmen befindet sich das CNTR-Logo und der Text "Fact Sheet, Februar 2024, Quantentechnologie"
Man giving a talk in front of a screen and CNTR roll-up
Flyer für die Veranstaltung "MINT in der Friedens- und Konfliktforschung"
Flyer für die Veranstaltung "MINT in der Friedens- und Konfliktforschung".
Flask and periodic table
computer chip
Lab with microscope and several bottles and hands of a person operating
Prof. Peter R. Schreiner