Cover-1 Analytics

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Combined matchup preview chart for Green Bay Packers offense vs. Pittsburgh Steelers defense, 2025 regular season, with both panels expressed relative to a league-average passer or defense at the same depth/gap. Left panel: Jordan Love graded above league average at every pass depth, peaking at +0.24 in the 0-5 yard range. Pittsburgh's pass defense is above average through 10 yards but leaks from 10-20 yards, worst at -0.36 in the 15-20 yard range. Right panel: Pittsburgh's run defense relative to league average by gap — right guard is their strongest gap (-0.37, tougher than average), right end their most exploitable (+0.21).
Combined matchup preview chart for Pittsburgh Steelers offense vs. Green Bay Packers defense, 2025 regular season, with both panels expressed relative to a league-average passer or defense at the same depth/gap. Left panel: Aaron Rodgers graded below league average at 5-10, 10-15, and 20-25 yards, only clearly above average behind the line of scrimmage (+0.13) and at 15-20 yards (+0.17). Right panel: Green Bay's run defense relative to league average by gap — left guard is their most exploitable gap (+0.18), right end and right tackle their toughest (-0.07, -0.14).
100%-stacked bar chart titled "Who Throws to TEs and RBs in the Red Zone?" showing all 32 NFL teams' share of red-zone targets (inside the 20-yard line) by position sorted by combined TE+RB share from highest to lowest. San Francisco leads at 64% combined (38% RB, the league's highest RB share, plus 27% TE), followed closely by Cleveland (38% TE) and Pittsburgh (36% TE). New Orleans is lowest at 31% combined, throwing 69% of red-zone targets to wide receivers. 2025 season through week 18, minimum 20 red-zone targets per team.
100%-stacked bar chart titled "Patrick Graham's Coverage History vs. 2025 Steelers," showing the share of classified pass-coverage snaps by shell (Cover 0, Cover 1, Man 2, Cover 2, Cover 3, Cover 4, Cover 6, Other) for each team-season Graham served as defensive coordinator: Miami 2019, NY Giants 2020-21, Las Vegas 2022-25, compared to Pittsburgh's own 2025 mix under the previous staff. Cover 1 usage ranges from 48% in Miami down to 15% in his final Raiders season; Cover 3 ranges from 23% to 42% across his stops. Pittsburgh's 2025 mix (25% Cover 1, 28% Cover 3) sits between his various profiles.
100%-stacked bar chart titled "How Each Team Allocates Its Targets," showing all 32 NFL teams' share of targets by receiving role (WR1, WR2, WR3+, TE, RB), sorted by WR1 share from highest to lowest. Seattle leads the league at 36% of targets to its top receiver, followed by Detroit at 31% and Cincinnati at 30%. The Jets are the most balanced, at just 13% to their WR1. 2025 season through week 18.
Cumulative stacked bar chart titled "How often do NFL offenses convert to a new series of downs?" showing all 32 teams, one bar each, with segments for cumulative conversion rate by 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th down, sorted from highest to lowest final conversion rate. The Rams lead at 77%, the Browns trail at 61%, 2025 season through week 18
Ranked dot plot of 46 qualifying QBs by EPA per dropback through week 18 of the 2025 season (min 100 dropbacks), team logo as the marker at each point. Top 5: D.Maye (NE) at +0.32; J.Love (GB) at +0.26; M.Stafford (LA) at +0.22; B.Purdy (SF) at +0.20; J.Goff (DET) at +0.18.
Scatter chart titled "Which Teams Face the Toughest Roster Decisions?" plotting all 32 NFL teams by percent of the projected 2027 salary cap committed to returning players (x-axis) versus percent of active contracts expiring after 2026 (y-axis), with team logos as markers. Detroit sits alone in the upper right at roughly 110% of the projected cap committed and 55% of contracts expiring — the only team high on both measures. Baltimore and Green Bay are also high on cap commitment but with far fewer expiring deals. Arizona, Chicago, and the Rams sit lowest on cap commitment.
Compass scatter plotting all 32 NFL defenses by coverage-shell tendency for the 2025 season — Cover 1 north, Cover 2 east, Cover 3 south, Cover 4 west, team logos as markers, position determined by how much a defense favors one shell over its opposite (Cover 1 vs. Cover 3 on the vertical axis, Cover 2 vs. Cover 4 on the horizontal). Most Cover 1: Philadelphia (35%). Most Cover 2: Minnesota (37%), also the team furthest from center overall. Most Cover 3: New Orleans (40%). Most Cover 4: Atlanta (16%). Atlanta and Washington sit closest to the center, showing no strong lean toward any one shell.
Table of each of the 32 NFL defenses' share of snaps in Cover 0, Cover 1, 2-Man, Cover 2, Cover 3, Cover 4, and Cover 6 for the 2025 season. Notable outliers: New Orleans at 40.3% Cover 3 (most in the league), Philadelphia at 35.1% Cover 1 (most), Minnesota at 36.5% Cover 2 (most) while running the least Cover 1 at 8.0%, and Detroit at 11.2% 2-Man (most).
100%-stacked bar chart of the league-wide (all 32 teams combined) share of snaps in Cover 0, Cover 1, 2-Man, Cover 2, Cover 3, Cover 4, Cover 6, and Other coverage shells, one bar per season from 2018 through 2025, earliest season at top. Cover 3 usage moved from 34% in 2018 to 27% by 2025; Cover 1 usage moved from 29% to 23%; 2-Man usage moved from 2% to 5%.
NFL passing EPA by depth of target for all 32 teams in the NFL