Daniel Bailey

@danielbailey99.bsky.social

1666 Followers 533 Following

Former Science Editor of the NASA Climate Change website and member of Skeptical Science. Facts and integrity matter.

IPCC graphic, showing that ice sheet long-term response to warming is millennial, spanning all emissions scenarios (including those best-case, low-likelihood ones).
Graphic, from data from the State of the Climate 2023, showing various ice loss time series. https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/publications/journals/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/state-of-the-climate/
Graphic, showing that 30 years or more of weather data constitute climate (minimum of 17 years, per Santer et al 2013). "Climate, sometimes understood as the "average weather,” is defined as the measurement of the mean and variability of relevant quantities of certain variables (such as temperature, precipitation or wind) over a period of time, ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system." https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.1210514109 https://web.archive.org/web/20230130200532/https://public.wmo.int/en/about-us/frequently-asked-questions/climate https://public.wmo.int/en/about-us/frequently-asked-questions/climate https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/92/6/2010bams2955_1.xml
Graphic demonstrating that emissions avoided due to Paris commitments implemented have led to avoided warming.
Graphic, showing that the smoking gun: GHG increases in the atmosphere are from the human burning of fossil fuels.
NASA graphic, showing that humans have pushed Earth’s climate out of the stable range of temperatures that allowed the development of agriculture and civilization.
IPCC graphic, showing that even under the most optimistic possible SSP scenarios the GreenlandIceSheet is an eventual, probable goner.
Meme, showing the negotiations between T & G on the World Cup game
Graphic, showing how methane converts to CO2 in the atmosphere, but concentrations are tiny (in ppb).
Graphic, showing the positive impacts of implemented Paris Agreement commitments.
Graphic showing that temperatures plateau within a decade of net zero, but remain elevated for centuries to millennia thereafter after reaching net zero emissions.
Image, showing "chemtrail" deployment from a steam locomotive in the 1800s.
NASA graphic showing the last 22,000 years of global temperatures, and that modern warming far exceeds that of the Medieval Warm Period.
NASA graphic, showing a few of the many attribution papers documenting the causality of the recent warming (I haven't updated it in 5 years).
NASA graphic, showing the recent warming period to be unprecedented over the past 22,000 years.
Graphic, showing that the human impacts in the current changing of Earth's climate are indisputable, as the isotopic records implacably attest.
Graphic, showing the persistence of land-based ice under all scenarios over the next 10,000 years. From the IPCC AR6.
Graphic, showing that per Solomon et al and many other studies, that it has long been demonstrated that the upward rise in global temperatures would flatten and plateau within less than a decade of the cessation of the burning of fossil fuels.
Graphic, showing our in-process transition to a Hothouse Earth scenario.
Graphic, showing that on the timescale of human lifetimes, we are permanently altering the stable temperature base of Earth's biosphere. What we are doing with our FF GHG emissions will endure longer than nuclear waste.
Graphic, showing current levels are the highest atmospheric CO2 levels since humans became a species.
Temperature elevations remain elevated for centuries to millennia after FF GHG emissions cease. No ice ages during that interegnum.
Graphic, showing that implemented Paris commitments have already reduced future warming commitments.
Graphic, based on Solomon et al 2009, showing that many, many studies have consistently and continually shown that when our FF CO2 emissions stop, warming the stops shortly thereafter.
Image of the Banhammer, used to smite trolls on social media platforms. Wield it wisely and often.
Graphic, showing future SLR to come expressed in units of the height of actor Dwayne "the Rock" Johnson. Based on the IPCC AR6.
Graphic, from the AR6, showing the pathway-dependent levels of possible SLR to come over the next 10,000 years:
Graphic, showing another way of looking at that 10,000 year commitment to sea level rise, expressed in units of Dwayne Johnson's height (almost 2 meters):
Figure, from the IPCC AR6, WG1, Chapter 9, Table 9.10, P. 1305, the table attached shows the 10,000-year commitment to future SLR. SLR will continue for millennia, regardless of pathways followed, due to the ponderously slow adjustment time of the land-based ice sheets.
NASA graphic, showing the recent rise in atmospheric concentration of CO2 is unprecedented over the past 800,000 or so years.
Graphic, showing Ch4 in PPB degrades to CO2 but remains in PPB, so its warming is far less than CO2 released in PPM.
The Piri Reis map doesn't actually show an ice-free Antarctica. Specifically: • The Piri Reis map contains some serious cartographic errors that other maps produced at around the same time (both before and after) do not contain. • Antarctica has been covered with continental glaciation for many millions of years, long before humans as a species arose. • Recent surveys show that, were all the ice to be removed and for Antarctica to thus be "ice-free", that the shorelines revealed have no resemblance whatsoever to those depicted on the Piri Reis map. http://www.badarchaeology.com/old-maps/the-piri-reis-map/ http://www.badarchaeology.com/old-maps/the-orontius-finaeus-map/ https://web.archive.org/web/20160303181727/http://www.uwgb.edu/dutchs/PSEUDOSC/PiriRies.HTM http://www.uwgb.edu/dutchs/PSEUDOSC/PiriRies.HTM
Graphic, showing that: From 1945-2009 there were 2,402 surface and underground nuclear weapon tests. Of those, 527 were conducted above-ground. Of those, some 458 were conducted in the first 20 years of nuclear weapons testing. Looking at those peak years of testing, the forcing from those 20 years of peak tests of the nuclear weapons on the Earth came to about one eight-millionth of a Watt per square meter (8 x 10-6 W m-2) of power. For comparison, the 1.8 Watts per square meter (1.8 W m-2) of CO2 radiative forcing as of 2011 generates approximately twenty nine billion, trillion Joules of energy (29 x 1021 J) over the Earth's surface in a single year, or more than ten thousand times as much energy in a year than the entire combined nuclear weapons program of the world had generated in those 20 years. Compared to the human burning of fossil fuels, nuclear weapon testing plays no role in the ongoing observed warming of Earth's surface. 20th Century nuclear weapons testing: http://railsback.org/FQS/FQSNuclearWeaponsTesting01.jpg http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/nuctestsum.html http://www.unscear.org/docs/reports/2008/09-86753_Report_2008_Annex_B.pdf http://www.laradioactivite.com/site/pages/RadioPDF/unscear_artificielle.pdf https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/ https://www.ctbto.org/specials/1945-1998-by-isao-hashimoto/ The 20 peak years of nuclear weapon testing came to about one eight-millionth of a Watt per square meter of power. For comparison, the 1.8 Watts per square meter of CO2 GHG warming as of 2011 generates approximately 10,000x as much energy in a year as those nuclear weapons tested. http://railsback.org/FQS/FQSNuclearWeaponsTesting01.jpg
Graphic, showing the ocean to be warming without any noticeable short-term rhythms.
Graphic, showing the full Greenland temperature record, in context with modern temperatures.
Meme, from Age of Ultron, showing Tony Stark and Bruce Banner owning up to being mad scientists.
Graphic, detailing Gilbert Plass's 1956 publication of the Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change.
While I was with NASA's Global Climate Change website team we developed this graphic to help convey the context of the recent changes in global temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum some 20,000+ years ago (attached).
Per Gerlach et al 2011 and Burton et al 2013, human activities emit about 100x the amount of CO2 as do all the volcanoes in the world. Human activities emit about as much CO2 as a Yellowstone-sized supereruption, but one that erupts every year.
Image, showing that implementation of the Paris Agreement has already made a quantifiable effect on globaltemperatures.
NASA graphic, showing that future warming is tied to our FF CO2 emissions, and when those stop, warming stops shortly thereafter.
Image, depicting Indiana Jones saying, "Fascists...its always fascists."
Temperatures plateau within a decade of the cessation of the burning of fossil fuels...but then remain elevated above preindustrial for centuries before slowly ebbing. Based on many, many studies dating from 2008 or so.
Per Archer 2008, GHG warming will persist longer than nuclear waste.
Sea levels further removed from the source of land-based ice mass losses will rise more while those adjacent will drop. The top panel shows West Antarctica losses, middle shows Greenland losses, bottom shows losses from both.
Sea levels removed from the source of land-based ice mass losses will rise while those adjacent will drop. Top panel shows West Antarctica losses, middle shows Greenland losses, bottom shows losses from both.
Top panel shows possible SLR from West Antarctica, middle panel from Greenland, bottom panel from both.
Possible future sea level rise (SLR) in South Florida. Red shows 1 meter SLR, tan depicts 6 meters SLR (Greenland could deliver that by itself). https://skepticalscience.com/mapping_sea_level_rise.html
The human forcing of climate is the dominant forcing of climate, dwarfing all natural forcings combined. Graphic shows a few of the many studies looking at that.
The full central Greenland ice core time series.
Meme, showing that Loki has an army but all we have is an incompetent dictator.
Image invoking Boromir, pointing out that America has no king nor does it need one.
Indiana Jones meme, with Dr Jones saying, "Fascists. It's always fascists."
An even bigger picture view of temperatures vs "the sun", 1610-2021, from NASA.
NASA graphic, showing the anomalous rise of atmospheric CO2 over the past 800,000 years.
Image, showing Indiana Jones saying, "Fascists...it's always fascists". From Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull.
Upon a cessation of the burning of fossil fuels, it would take several millenia before the planet cooled to "normal" (Solomon 2009 and many since).