Daniel Kaufman

@danielkaufman.bsky.social

88 Followers 48 Following

Real Estate Developer | Building communities from coast to coast | Focused on sustainable, vibrant spaces | Adventure enthusiast | Based in California and Maine https://linktr.ee/DanielKaufman

Launching U.S. Real Estate Journal: housing markets, development economics & RE investment from an active operator. First piece: institutional capital fled workforce housing corridors — that’s the opportunity, not the problem. usrealestatejournal.net #RealEstate Daniel Kaufman real estate news
The fastest-growing U.S. city sits 35 miles from Houston. Fulshear, TX: 64,630 people. +280% since 2020. Dallas lost population. Houston added fewer residents than its own exurban satellites. The core isn’t the growth engine anymore. Capital is still catching up to where households already went. → https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/the-exurban-thesis-is-no-longer-a?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios
Just named a KeyCrew Verified Expert in Contrarian Real Estate. 10,000+ multifamily units. No outside capital. We don’t follow headlines — we follow the data. By the time a market makes the cover, we’re already positioning the exit. https://www.openpr.com/news/4510416/keycrew-media-names-daniel-kaufman-a-verified-expert #CRE #ContrarianInvesting #RealEstate​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Los Angeles just hit #1 in US multifamily permitting. 85% YoY growth. 15,735 units. The Sun Belt darlings are pulling back. Austin. Orlando. Florida. Coastal gateway cities are reclaiming the cycle. We never left LA. The data is finally catching up. Full breakdown in The Kaufman Report 👇 https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/los-angeles-is-back-and-we-never?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=post-publish​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
A new UVM study confirms what practitioners already know: building more of the same won’t fix Burlington’s housing crisis. Removing ONE investor from the market = the same affordability impact as adding EIGHT homes. The “just build more” crowd is usually talking about luxury product. That’s not a solution. That’s a press release. New post 👇 https://danielkaufmanrealestatedeveloper.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-supply-myth-why-building-more-of.html #WorkforceHousing #Burlington #HousingPolicy​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
I believed the jobpocalypse narrative. Then I read the data. The question isn’t whether AI can do your job. It’s whether demand expands as the cost of doing it falls. History says the answer varies — a lot. Full breakdown: https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/the-jobpocalypse-narrative-is-missing?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=post-publish #AI #FutureOfWork #LaborMarkets​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Family offices aren’t price-takers in CRE anymore. They’re price-setters. Private capital went from 2.6% → 21% of global CRE in 16 years. Senior housing is where it’s heading next. New Kaufman Report 👇 https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/senior-housing-demand-hands-family?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=post-publish #TheKaufmanReport #CRE #SeniorHousing
The Sun Belt isn’t overbuilt. It’s uneven. Class A urban product is bleeding concessions. Class B workforce housing two zip codes away is posting strong renewals. Same metro. Completely different story. Full breakdown → https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/the-sun-belt-isnt-overbuilt-its-uneven?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=post-publish
93% collapse in net migration. $8,000/yr insurance. 50% of residents considering leaving. The Florida boom is a mirage. Here’s what the data actually says — not the broker spin. New Kaufman Report 👇 https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/the-florida-mirage-what-the-data?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=post-publish​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
New episode of The Kaufman Report 🎙️ Most developers are giving away 15–20% in GC fees and buyout spreads. This cycle rewards cost basis, not location. How we self-perform and buy direct, cutting $2–4M on a 250-unit deal. 🎧 Listen → https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-kaufman-report-with-daniel-kaufman/id1880761848?i=1000762026432
Everyone's reading the jobs numbers wrong. Break-even employment dropped from 160k/month to ~30k. The labor market isn't soft — the benchmark moved. What it means for developers, operators & the Fed 👇 https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/the-jobs-numbers-are-softer-the-labor?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=post-publish
The bid-ask standoff in distressed office is breaking. 200+ trades in 2025. $5B+ in foreclosure volume. 2026 already running hotter. The floor is in. My next call for investors: Florida. Miami. Jacksonville. Tampa. Orlando. Full breakdown in The Kaufman Report 👇 https://substack.com/@danielekaufman/note/p-194062711?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
The office market is lying to you — in two directions at once. Q1 2026: vacancy hit an all-time record at 21%. Also Q1: leasing just had its best quarter since 2018. Both are true. This isn’t a recovery. It’s a bifurcation. The full breakdown → https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/the-office-market-is-lying-to-you?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=post-publish​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Oracle cut 30,000 workers and committed $50B to data centers in the same week. For the first time ever, data center construction spend has surpassed office building spend. The server farm is the new human — and the disruption is only accelerating. Full breakdown: https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/the-server-farm-is-the-new-human?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=post-publish​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Big news: Kaufman & Company is expanding. Multifamily. Micro data centers on power-ready industrial sites. Capital deployment across the U.S. and Canada Real estate and technology are converging faster than most people realize. We’re building at that intersection Capital partners, operators, developers let’s talk https://www.prlog.org/13136408-daniel-kaufman-expands-kaufman-company-real-estate-platform-with-new-acquisitions-ai-driven-industrial-development-and-nationwide-growth-initiative.html
453K multifamily permits in January. Everyone's calling it a recovery. I'm not. We're 30% below the 2023 peak. Capital — not demand — is the constraint. This is stabilization, not a rebound. Full breakdown: https://medium.com/@danielkaufmanrealestate/multifamily-permitting-rebound-or-reset-182390e5262f #Multifamily #CRE #HousingSupply
LA lost 131K domestic residents last year. Immigration only replaced 38K. Miami. San Diego. NYC. Three of America's 20 largest metros are shrinking. The immigration buffer is gone. This is structural, not cyclical. What it means for real estate investors 👇 https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/the-incredible-shrinking-city-what?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=post-publish
Everyone wrote Austin off too soon. TERAFAB just changed the calculus. Hiring already started. Musk’s timelines are optimistic — I know. But developers don’t wait for ribbon cuttings. By the time the herd reprices Austin, the window is closed. Where I’m looking now 👇 https://medium.com/@danielkaufmanrealestate/austins-next-act-why-terafab-could-trigger-the-city-s-real-estate-comeback-05392c71b540
A year ago the U.S. was growing at its fastest pace since 2006. This year? Slowest since COVID. Sun Belt rents are falling. Chicago is outperforming. The demographic story just flipped — here’s what it means for developers and investors. https://medium.com/@danielkaufmanrealestate/america-is-slowing-down-and-real-estate-is-paying-attention-2b1a772dbf8e​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
The AI talent map is being redrawn. San Jose leads concentration. NYC leads volume. Dallas is the most interesting market nobody's talking about. For real estate developers, this isn't a tech story — it's a demand driver. Full breakdown 👇 https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/the-ai-talent-map-is-being-redrawn?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=post-publish
The ski industry got consolidated into a subscription product. We’re buying back an independent mountain and building something the industry hasn’t seen in a long time. 🎙️ New episode of The Kaufman Report — listen now. https://open.spotify.com/episode/3WZmAxKwHOehwh2AIuFIVu?si=3zryP7JpSgK3So-h54XGAg NDA inquiries: tom@thekaufmanco.com Daniel Kaufman
Everyone's watching big-city trophy assets. That's the wrong half of the market. Smaller, secondary-market CRE is quietly outperforming. 4 straight months of divergence in the CoStar data. The deals are in Maine, Vermont, Raleigh, Indianapolis — not waiting on a Fed cut. Full breakdown 👇 https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/the-market-is-splitting-most-investors?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=post-publish
Chicago +5.3%, New York +5.1%, Tampa -2.9%. The “hot market” narrative is backwards, follow the data, not the headlines. https://medium.com/@danielkaufmanrealestate/the-hot-market-story-is-backwards-follow-the-data-not-the-headlines-48ea73798f0e
The media has declared SF dead. Then NYC. Then Chicago. Then LA. Then Boston. They’ve been wrong every single time. The stickiness isn’t gone. It never was. The media just gets more clicks saying it is. Full take: https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/the-media-has-been-wrong-about-san?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=post-publish
Something I've wanted to do for a long time — it's finally here. 25 years in real estate. Deals that worked. Deals that didn't. Policies that never made sense. Now I'm talking about all of it. 🎙️ The Kaufman Report is live. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-kaufman-report-with-daniel-kaufman/id1880761848 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1kiBNp3XDv2VuiXdMgQIKa?si=CoumbDKYSWqY26E1jfncoA #RealEstate #Podcast #HousingPolicy
New on Substack: why letting go is not weakness, it’s a competitive advantage. What 25 years in business, and Harvard-backed research, taught me about forgiveness, resentment, and why the people chasing revenge are usually the ones losing most. Read here: https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/let-it-go-why-forgiveness-is-the?r=6grdsr&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Palantir “moving to Miami” is the kind of headline that tells you more about business media incentives than business reality. I break down what’s actually going on, why these narratives persist, and what operators should pay attention to instead. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/palantir-miami-headline-everything-wrong-business-media-kaufman-i8one?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&utm_campaign=share_via
Is this the future of Vermont getaways? 🌲✨ We’re deep-testing MyCabin’s Scandinavian prefabs for our new Green Mountains resort. R-49 insulation for brutal winters, glass walls for forest views, and that perfect hygge vibe. Not your standard hotel room. Full story: https://danielkaufmanrealestatedeveloper.blogspot.com/2026/02/testing-future-of-hospitality-bringing.html Would you trade a traditional suite for a private cabin in the woods?
A new era is coming to a storied mountain 🏔️ We’re unveiling a comprehensive Master Development Plan, reimagining a hidden gem into a world-class, pedestrian-first alpine village. • New high-alpine terrain (2,850’) • 40,000 SF Grand Lodge + ski-in/ski-out chalets • 3-year phased rollout • True four-season destination Full master plan, trail maps, and timelines 👇 https://danielkaufmanrealestatedeveloper.blogspot.com/2026/02/unveiling-vision-new-era-for-storied.html
Honored to be featured in @KeyCrewNews on how we’re building Kaufman & Company through a contrarian strategy, vertical integration, and a focus on overlooked markets. Daniel Kaufman news The playbook and thinking behind the platform 👇 https://keycrew.co/journal/contrarian-developer-finds-success-in-overlooked-markets-through-vertical-integration/ #RealEstate #VerticalIntegration #ContrarianInvesting
Unpopular opinion: Miami’s “luxury boom” is a mirage. More $1M listings than NYC doesn’t mean dominance, it means inventory piling up. Prices down ~10.8% YoY. Days on market rising. Seller expectations ≠ clearing prices. That’s a liquidity problem, not a boom. Full analysis: https://danielkaufmanrealestatedeveloper.blogspot.com/2026/01/the-miami-boom-is-mirage-why-million.html
The U.S. data center market isn’t about picking a “hot” city anymore. It’s about picking a grid node that can actually scale. Northern Virginia still leads. Dallas is becoming the most balanced Tier-1 market. Phoenix is the fastest-moving growth story. But the real constraint is power. Time to power now matters more than price per acre. Here’s my breakdown of where the real opportunities are for developers and investors: https://medium.com/@danielkaufmanrealestate/top-u-s-data-center-markets-by-the-numbers-and-where-the-real-opportunities-are-69ba6855c079
Davos 2026 wasn’t about soundbites. It was about constraints. AI is now an infrastructure story. Energy is the global chokepoint. Housing is a social stability issue. Capital is rotating back into hard assets. And the next decade will reward builders, not traders. The digital economy is now constrained by analog infrastructure. Here are the real signals beneath the surface: https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/davos-2026-the-signals-beneath-the?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay #Davos2026 #AIInfrastructure #DataCenters #RealAssets #Infrastructure #RealEstate #DanielKaufman
I just published a new Substack post breaking down the real economics of housing affordability, political risk, and why “someone always pays” when rents are regulated. Read the full post: https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/affordable-housing-isnt-free-someone?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=post-publish
Commercial real estate construction is quietly undergoing a structural reset. Most sectors are slowing. One is accelerating. Data centers are now absorbing a rapidly growing share of global construction capital, driven by AI and hyperscale demand that is largely insulated from traditional financing cycles. I wrote a new piece breaking down what this means for developers and investors: https://medium.com/@danielkaufmanrealestate/builders-pivot-to-data-centers-as-broader-cre-construction-slows-48fae72177ea
The job market is quietly weakening, and real estate is already feeling the impact. Job growth has stalled, regional shifts are accelerating, and multifamily fundamentals are diverging sharply by market. If you’re investing or developing today, this data matters. Read the full analysis: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/job-market-cracking-real-estate-already-feeling-daniel-kaufman-zp7jc/
California’s AI boom is propping up luxury housing and the state budget at the same time. That looks like strength, but it’s also concentration risk. If AI-driven wealth softens, housing demand, development confidence, and state finances could feel it fast. Full breakdown here: https://open.substack.com/pub/danielkaufmanre/p/california-is-riding-the-ai-wave?r=6grdsr&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=post-publish