Daniel Mangrum @danielmangrum.com · Feb 26 Using the NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel, we find legalization raises overall delinquency by 0.31 pp. For under-40s, credit card delinquency rises ~1 pp and auto loan delinquency rises 0.55 pp. Scaling by the 3.1% take-up rate implies ~10 pp overall delinquency increases among induced bettors.
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Spillovers create a fiscal asymmetry: states that haven’t legalized bear costs from spillover betting without capturing tax revenue. We simulate legalization for not yet legal states. Missouri (with KC and STL sitting on legal-state borders) gets the highest revenue-per-delinquency ratio.