Dan Munz

@danmunz.bsky.social

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Homophone. Portmanteau. Iamb. Synecdoche.

A man in a white shirt holding a microphone in front of a blue curtain.
Chart titled "AI scenarios" from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows GDP per capita (in thousands of 1990 dollars, log scale) from 1870 to 2050. The chart includes: A blue line representing historical Real GDP per capita from 1870 to ~2024. An orange line indicating the Trend GDP per capita, growing at 1.9% per year. A green line showing an AI GDP-boosted trend with a 2.1% growth rate for 10 years. A red line labeled "Singularity: Benign scenario," depicting rapid GDP growth after 2024. A purple line labeled "Singularity: Extinction," illustrating a sharp GDP decline to zero post-2024. Notes explain data sources from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics, Macrohistory.net, United Nations, and authors' calculations.