Darren Olivier

@darren.africandefence.net

4542 Followers 7115 Following

Director at African Defence Review (@africandefence) Covering African conflicts with a specific focus on Southern Africa. Email: dolivier@africandefence.net Signal: darren.13

Global lightning map for 2013-2017, created using Vaisala’s GLD360 dataset. https://weather.com/safety/thunderstorms/news/2018-05-07-world-lightning-strikes-map-vaisala-2013-2017
IRIS Dena at the recent international fleet review and exercise in India, showing weapons fitted. Photo credit: Ricardo Teixeira
IRIS Dena photographed at Exercise MILAN 2026 in India. Credit: Ricardo Teixeira
South Africa's Minister of Defence has issued a statement confirming that President Ramaphosa issued an order on Iran's continued participation in Exercise Will For Peace '26, and that it was communicated "to all concerned". She announced a Board of Inquiry to determine if the instruction was misrepresented or ignored.
GUNNERY FIRING EXERCISES WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 0600 – 2000 UTC FROM 13 TO 15 JAN 2026 IN AREA BOUNDED BY: 4A. 34 – 16 S 018 – 35 E B. 34 – 30 S 018 – 27 E C. 34 – 16 S 018 – 44 E D. 34 – 30 S 018 – 31 E E. 34 – 16 S 018 – 51 E F. 34 – 30 S 018 – 44 E 5 ALL VESSELS REQUESTED TO KEEP CLEAR POTENTIAL DANGER SHOULD VESSELS ENTER RANGE UNNOTICED CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 2230 LOCAL TIME ON 15 JAN 2026 (NOTE FOR ATC: DANGER HEIGHT 14000 FT)
Military expert Darren Olivier argues that BRICS lacks a formal defense agreement or mechanism to organize such exercises. He notes that while South Africa, Russia, China, and Iran are involved, key BRICS members India and Brazil have not participated in exercises like Mosi I, II, or the upcoming "Exercise for Peace 2026." Olivier describes the branding as "not smart geopolitics," suggesting South Africa is risking its relationships with India and Brazil by prioritizing these drills over established partnerships like the Ibsamar maritime exercise.
Soldiers fast-rope from a South African Air Force Oryx helicopter at South African Army Combat Training Centre Lohatlha, in a demonstration for the Exercise VUKUHLOME IV 2025 Distinguished Visitors Day.
A view from the stable parade showing Gecko vehicles in front, with Ratel ZT3s and a Rooikat behind, and two antennas likely belonging to an Eekhoring system and the ESR 220 Thutlwa respectively.
Overview of the brigade stable parade at South African Army Combat Training Centre Lohatlha, in the run up to the Exercise VUKUHLOME IV 2025 Distinguished Visitors Day.
South African National Defence Force soldiers deployed with the United Nations peace mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, MONUSCO, are photographed providing school supplies to the children of Sadiki Primary School as part of community outreach initiatives.
Official press release dated 31 October 2025 from the Office of the President of Botswana, featuring the national coat of arms. The document announces that President Duma Gideon Boko has appointed Ambassador Mpho Churchill Mophuting to the rank of General and Commander of the Botswana Defence Force, and Major General Joseph Eno Seelo to Lieutenant General and Deputy Commander. Appointments effective 6 November 2025. Signed by Emmah A. Peloetletse, Permanent Secretary to the President
South African Air Force C-130 transport aircraft upgrade and maintenance plan for tail numbers 401-409, covering fiscal years 2023/24 to 2028/29. Colour-coded table shows operational periods (white), major service and upgrade periods (yellow), and awaiting bay status (grey). Schedule tracks minor services, major services, internal and external upgrades, and long-term storage. Bottom row indicates operational output capacity ranging from 1 to 4 aircraft available per fiscal year.
A line graph titled "Age Distribution of Privates as at 1 April 2013." The blue line, representing the total number of privates, shows a peak of around 20,700 in Sep 2000, a dip to about 16,600 in Apr 2004, and then a gradual increase to around 21,600 in Apr 2011 before decreasing to about 18,400 in Apr 2013. The red line, representing the number of 18- to 24-year-olds, shows a general upward trend, increasing from around 2,200 in Sep 2000 to a peak of around 12,200 in Apr 2011, then falling to about 8,200 in Apr 2013. A green line representing the percentage of 18- to 24-year-olds shows that this group makes up between 10.8% and 57% of the total privates over this period.
Tables comparing SANDF personnel structure with international benchmarks. Key findings: junior officers outnumbered by seniors (0.65:1 vs 2–3:1), too few junior enlisted (29.6% vs 35–45%), oversized senior NCO cohort (25.2% vs 10–15%), and low operational base (49.2% vs 60–75%). Overall: inverted officer pyramid, bloated middle management, reduced operational capacity.
Table titled "Rank Distribution" showing military personnel strength across six hierarchical categories. Row 1: Senior Management System comprising General/Admiral to Brigadier General/Rear Admiral Junior Grade positions with 230 personnel. Row 2: Senior Officers from Colonel/Captain SA Navy to Major/Lieutenant Commander with 6,065 personnel. Row 3: Junior Officers from Captain/Lieutenant SAN Na to Second Lieutenant/Sub Lieutenant with 3,924 personnel. Row 4: Warrant Officers including Warrant Officer Class I and Warrant Officer Class 2 with 5,447 personnel. Row 5: Senior Non-commissioned Officers covering Staff Sergeant/Flight Sergeant/Chief Petty Officer and Sergeant Petty Officer with 15,371 personnel. Row 6: Junior Non-commissioned Officers from Corporal/Leading Seaman to Private/Airman/Seaman with 29,969 personnel, representing nearly half of total strength. Total personnel strength across all ranks: 61,006.
Official media statement from the South African Department of Defence, dated 4 September 2025. It announces the postponement of the planned November 2025 BRICS joint naval exercise between South Africa, Russia, and China due to South Africa’s G20 Presidency. The statement notes that China was to host the exercise, and the postponement is to avoid logistical and security clashes with G20 commitments. It reaffirms South Africa’s commitment to joint and multinational military exercises with a wide range of partner countries.
Official media statement from South Africa’s Ministry of Defence and Military Veterans dated 13 August 2025. The statement clarifies that foreign policy and international relations are solely the prerogative of the President and Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO), not the Defence Ministry. It addresses political statements reportedly made by General Rudzani Maphwanya, Chief of the South African National Defence Force, during a meeting with Iranian Defence Force leadership. The ministry reiterates that only the President and DIRCO determine national policy on international relations. Contact details for Ministry spokesperson Onicca Kwakwa are provided at the bottom.
Here's the full text for Bluesky: SANDF MEDIA ADVISORY - 11 June 2025 FIRST GROUP OF SANDF TROOPS RETURN FROM SAMIDRC DEPLOYMENT: FRIDAY, 13 JUNE 2025 The South African National Defence Force (SANDF) announces the return of the first group of South African troops who were deployed to the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as part of the Southern African Development Community Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC). The soldiers will arrive at Air Force Base Bloemfontein on Friday, 13 June 2025. The estimated time of arrival is 12h00 midday. The troops will be welcomed by the Minister of Defence and Military Veterans, accompanied by members of the Military Command Council. The Minister will address members of the media after she has received and welcomed the troops. The media briefing is scheduled for 14:00 at 44 Parachute Regiment, Tempe Military Base. Members of the media are invited to witness the arrival of the troops and attend the media briefing. For those wishing to travel to Bloemfontein for the event, transport will be arranged and will depart from Armscor Building at 14h00 from the visitors parking. Media based in Gauteng Province interested in attending are requested to submit their particulars to Major Donald Nyalungu on 083 250 4745. Issued by: Department of Defence (Defence Headquarters – Pretoria) Enquiries: Rear Admiral (Junior Grade) Prince Tshabalala (Director Defence Corporate Communication)
Map showing Search and Rescue Responsibility (SRR) areas in the Southern Ocean. A large red shaded region covering 28.5 million km² represents the Maritime SRR zone extending from South Africa towards Antarctica and across to the Indian Ocean. The map also indicates an Aeronautical SRR area and shows surrounding landmasses including South Africa, Antarctica, and parts of the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Making this worse is a financial insult to the troops. While the South African Development Community (SADC) allocated R108,000 per soldier per month over the period of deployment, South African troops reportedly only received R32,000 per month – with no explanation of where the remaining R76,000 per soldier went. Tanzanian and Malawian troops on the same mission are said to have earned nearly double.
The SANDF failed to halt the advance of M23 rebels, with key towns falling into rebel hands even as South African troops were deployed. The mission ended in a disorganised withdrawal, with troops reportedly seeking refuge at UN bases and being escorted out of the DRC by Rwandan forces. If that is their definition of "success," then the bar is not very high.
The DA looks forward to the scheduled meeting of the Joint Standing Committee on Defence this Friday, where the Minister of Defence is expected to brief Parliament on the withdrawal from SAMIDRC (South African Development Community Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo). We will use this opportunity to ask pointed questions about the SANDF's misleading public claims and demand clarity on the financial discrepancies that have yet to be explained to the people of South Africa.
A screenshot of a news article, stating: "A technical advance team from all three countries was assembled to ensure which exact route the troop convoys were to take would be the safest and fastest. This team included operations, intelligence and logistic experts. They also had to provide the necessary reconnaissance while the withdrawal was under way. According to the soldiers, another contingent of SA and other forces is awaiting arrival in Chato to co-ordinate the repatriation of troops and equipment."
A photo of Goma Airport showing vehicles parked on the runway to block it.
FlightRadar24 screenshot showing a South African Air Force Falcon 50 VIP jet carrying the ‘LMG480’ callsign flying from Kinshasa.
This image shows an official government communiqué from the Democratic Republic of Congo's Ministry of Interior, Security, Decentralisation and Customary Affairs. The document, dated 12 April 2025, is written in French and appears to be a formal statement regarding alleged violations by Rwandan forces. It details reported incidents including civilian casualties, attacks on healthcare facilities, and various human rights abuses in eastern Congo. The document is signed by what appears to be Vice-Prime Minister Shabani Lukoo Bihango J., with an official stamp and contact information for the ministry at the bottom.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
A photo of a black and gold painted South African Air Force Museum Mirage III fighter aircraft, viewed from the side.
Alt text: A comparison table titled "HOW IS PROJECT KGALA DIFFERENT FROM THUSANO (1/1)" marked as "RESTRICTED". The table contrasts Project Thusano (left column) with Project Kgala (right column). Project Thusano focused on vocational training of students in Cuba, with expenses now moved to CHR as a Foreign Learning Opportunity. Project Kgala focuses on professional technical services by Cuban Specialists to SANDF for skills transfer, representing the only binding contract with Cuba's Revolutionary Armed Forces. Both share objectives of capacitating the technical Service Corps through skills transfer, with Project Kgala additionally featuring multi-service teams to monitor progress against objectives and timelines.
2.2 ADC Summit of 13th March 2025 has taken a decision to terminate the SAMIRC mandate and it is therefore urgent that withdrawal processes are expedited including by facilitating the opening of the Airport.
South African soldiers at the SAMIDRC base in the DRC, at a memorial service for fallen colleagues
DATE: EMBARGO: SUBJECT: MEDIA ALERT Wednesday, 12 February 2025 For Immediate Release POSTPONMENT OF HANDING OVER CEREMONY OF THE MORTAL REMAINS OF THE SAND SOLDIERS WHO LOST THEIR LIVES IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO Due to inevitable Parliamentary commitments related to the State of the Nation Address SONA) debate, the schedule handing over ceremony of the mortal remains of SANDF faller soldiers as well as the memorial service have been postponed. These events are now scheduled as follows: Event: Hand-Over Ceremony of Fallen Soldiers' Mortal Remains Date: Thursday, 13 February 2025 Handing Over Ceremony: 18:00 PM lemorial Service: 19:00 P enue: Air Force Base Swartko All media related enquiries can be directed SANDF Media Liaison section or sandfmedialiaison@amail.com or using a mobile number: 060 554 8031. Members of the at 09:00 Acontinue submitting their details for accreditation until Thursday, 13 February 2025 ENDS. Issued by: South At on Natanal Defence Force Enquiries: Director Dal (uc oral in Tranbalia
SANDF in a late night announcement now, indicates a DELAY in the repatriation ceremony and memorial service for fallen soldiers to 6pm SA Time on Thursday. According to their statement, this is due to President Cyril Ramaphosa's commitment to reply to the SONA debate at 2pm SA time to a joint-sitting of the National Assembly in Cape Town. He will then fly to Tshwane to join the bereaved families. The ceremony was originally scheduled for 9am but has now been delayed by a whopping 9 hours to accommodate the President and Commander-in-Chief.
A service schedule chart spanning fiscal years 2023/24 to 2028/29. The chart tracks operational status for six units (401, 402, 405, 406, 408, and 409) using color-coding. States include 'Operational' (green), 'Awaiting Bay', various service levels (Minor and Major), and upgrade periods (yellow). The bottom row shows 'Ops Output' values ranging from 1 to 4 across the timeline. Unit 401 starts with a 3rd Minor Service, transitions through operational periods and upgrades. Unit 402 begins awaiting major service, with planned regeneration and upgrades. Units 405-409 follow similar patterns of operational periods, maintenance, and upgrades, with specific timing and durations indicated by the cell spans.
FlightRadar24 screenshot showing South African Air Force C-13BZ serial 401 flying orbits around Air Force Base Waterkloof.
gather here as our country is mourning the tragic and devastating loss of 14 South African soldiers who were part of a mission to bring peace to the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. We bow our heads in tribute to: Staff Sergeant William Eddie Cola Staff Sergeant Molahlehi Ishmael Molahlehi Staff Sergeant Shwahlane Theophilus Seepe Corporal Matome Justice Malesa Corporal Rinae Nemavhulani Lance Bombardier Itumeleng Macdonald Moreo Lance Corporal Tseke Moffat Molapo Lance Corporal Metse Stansly Raswiswi Rifleman Sebatane Richard Chokoe Rifleman Derrick Maluleke Rifleman Tshidiso Andries Mabele Rifleman Calvin Louis Moagi Rifleman Mokete Joseph Mobe Private Peter Jacobus Strydom I have directed that the National Flag be flown at half-mast for a period of a week in honour of our fallen soldiers.
Text excerpt about SADC troop deployment in DRC, stating that while authorized for 5,000 troops from Malawi, South Africa and Tanzania, only about 1,300 had been deployed as of late January 2025, significantly under the target.
Screenshot of a tweet from The Presidency (@PresidencyZA) with their official seal logo. The tweet reads: 'President @CyrilRamaphosa held a telephone call with President @PaulKagame of Rwanda to discuss the recent developments in the Eastern DRC and the escalation in fighting that has resulted in the deaths of SAMIDRC peacekeepers. The two heads of state have agreed on the urgent need for a ceasefire and the resumption of peace talks by all parties to the conflict.'
"SADC press release dated January 25, 2025, condemning M23's attacks on SAMIDRC forces near Goma. Document features SADC logo (a blue circular emblem) and details how the attacks violate regional peace agreements. Statement expresses solidarity with DRC, condemns violations of the Nairobi Peace Process, and offers condolences for casualties. Issued from SADC Secretariat in Gaborone, Botswana."​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
"Media statement from the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) dated January 25, 2025, detailing their pushback against M23 rebels near Goma, DRC. The document features the SANDF logo (a green shield with gold trim containing a stylized aloe plant) and reports casualties from two days of fighting. The statement announces that 9 SANDF members were lost while successfully preventing rebels from advancing on Goma."​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
A screenshot of a FlightRadar24 screen showing the South African air force Falcon 50, ZS-NAN, flying back to South Africa with the LMG3 callsign
Another screenshot showing ZS-CAS turning north west from Goma
Screenshot of a FlightRadar display showing a Falcon 50 of the South African Air Force departing Goma while showing the LMG3 callsign
A map showing the flight path of a South African Air Force Falcon 50 VIP jet from Kinshasa to Goma, with the callsign of ‘LMG3’ indicating that the Minister of Defence is on board.
A Palestinian Authority security services vehicle, with POLICE written on the side. In front of it stand two armed Palestinian Authority security services personnel.
Official South African Air Force document dated August 16, 2013, detailing maintenance procedures for Gripen aircraft. Letter discusses preventative maintenance program requiring aircraft to be flown every 60 days and stored in protective tents. Signed by Director Combat Systems. Document has SA Air Force logo in header.
A data table comparing flight hours of South African Air Force Gripen aircraft between 2013 and 2022. Shows serial numbers 3901-3926, with significant increases in flight hours for many aircraft, particularly 3908 and 3909 which logged nearly 1000 hours each. Some aircraft maintained the same hours, while one (3920) is marked BOI. Overall trend shows increased utilization
Screenshot of a tweet from Elon Musk arguing against crewed fighter jets. He claims drones are more efficient for missile/bomb delivery, notes fighters' vulnerability to SAMs/drones (citing Ukraine war), and makes a crude joke about Air Force officers. The tweet shows 52K views and engagement metrics.
A military vehicle loaded with Special Forces personnel traverses red dirt terrain. The Hornet rapid deployment vehicle carries multiple troops in combat gear with helmets and tactical equipment. A KORD heavy machine gun is mounted on top.
Technology has changed the tools and the tactics and the nature of conflicts themselves, which South Africa has to keep abreast of to ensure the continued survival of its people, Mkhonto said. The SA Navy’s strategic approach was premised on domain awareness and domain response. To this end, Project MATHLO aims to purchase new radar and sensor systems from Reutech, with the sensors being integrated into the Institute of Maritime Technology’s indigenously developed VISTANET system and ultimately into the “national satellite”. This information would be shared with strategic partners, such India, Madagascar, Seychelles, Tanzania and Brazil and bolstered by data shared by them in turn.
Screenshot of a Twitter exchange. User VKtz86 tweets about the F-35's capabilities, mentioning its higher flight altitude, faster speed, longer range (3200km without refueling), and ability to carry advanced munitions. Elon Musk replies simply: "It's a shit design". The tweet shows engagement metrics and a "Rate proposed Community Notes" button.
PART 2 || Since assuming office, the Minister has championed initiatives to enhance defence capabilities, improve soldiers welfare and further international defence collaborations. #MODMV #SANDF #SAArmy #PrideOfLions #SASoldierMagzine #ExerciseVUKUHLOME
This image is a flowchart diagram titled "Can you trust a person is who they say they are on Bluesky?" It explains the verification system on Bluesky through a decision tree format. The diagram shows four main username formats for Bluesky accounts: username.bsky.social, domainname.com, subdomain.domainname.com, and something ending brid.gy. The flowchart walks through different verification scenarios, with branches showing various outcomes and verification steps. It includes color-coded conclusion boxes: - A green "Probably OK" box for verified cases - A red "Warning" box for unverified cases - A yellow "Caution" box for cases requiring more investigation - A blue note about content analysis The diagram includes detailed explanations at each step about checking domain ownership, website URLs, and profile links. It's attributed to Jon Worth (@jonworth.eu on Bluesky) and includes licensing information (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) and a version number (1.0.0 - 16.11.2024). The overall message of the diagram emphasizes the importance of verification and shows the various ways to determine the authenticity of a Bluesky account, while acknowledging that absolute certainty isn't always possible.
COMMUNIQUÉ OF THE EXTRAORDINARY SUMMIT OF SADC HEADS OF STATE AND GOVERNMENT 20th NOVEMBER 2024 1. The Extraordinary Summit of the Heads of State and Government of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), hereafter called “Summit” was held on 20th November 2024, in Harare, Republic of Zimbabwe. 2. Summit was attended by the following Heads of State and Government, or their representatives: Zimbabwe: H.E. President Dr. Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, Chairperson of SADC Botswana: President Duma Gideon Boko Democratic Republic of Congo: H.E. President Félix Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo Madagascar: H.E. President Andry Rajoelina Mozambique: H.E. President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi South Africa: H.E. Paul Shipokosa Mashatile, Deputy President United Republic of Tanzania: H.E Dr. Hussein Ali Mwinyi, President of Zanzibar and Chairman of the Revolutionary Council Eswatini H.E. The Right Honourable Prime Minister, Russell Mmiso Dlamini Namibia: Hon. Dr. Peya Mushelenga, Minister of
An image of three Gripen fighter aircraft and six Hawk jet trainers of the South African Air Force in formation