Dave Deek - BlueSky is Amazing @davedeek.substack.com · May 13 Japan implemented major family support increases in 2010 with measurable effects: - Japan's fertility would have plummeted from about 1.4 to 0.8 children per woman without intervention, according to synthetic control modeling - Instead, Japan maintained fertility around 1.3-1.4 through 2022
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- The gap between actual fertility and the synthetic control grows progressively wider after 2010, reaching about 0.5 children per woman by 2022 - This represents a 60% higher fertility rate than Japan would have experienced without policy intervention