David Nir @davidnir.com · May 5

Elliott (and @jaredb-econ.bsky.social) have persuasively argued that "excess inflation"—how much more things cost vs. what consumers think they *should* cost, based on 30 years of low inflation before COVID—is making Americans very sour on the economy. Prices are now about 15% higher than expected!

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David Nir · May 5

But we can project when this excess inflation will disappear, based on estimates of future inflation. Current predictions range from 2.7% to 4.7% per year, which means excess inflation would not vanish until 2029 or 2030—and that's only if are no future COVID-style spikes.