David Nir @davidnir.com · May 5

But in many scenarios, consumer sentiment lags further still. Under 3% annual inflation, for instance, attitudes about the economy wouldn't return to their historical median until 2032. And crucially, they would *never* reach their pre-COVID highs again. Unless.

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David Nir · May 5

The "unless" is key. Politicians can't just wait out the end of high prices. Voters will punish them well beforehand. For Dems, that means enacting big policies that make life less precarious, like the expanded child tax credit. If not, they could condemn themselves to non-stop political turnover.