Julia M. Rohrer

@dingdingpeng.the100.ci

11470 Followers 2699 Following

Personality psych & causal inference @UniLeipzig. I like all things science, beer, & puns. Even better when combined! Part of http://the100.ci, http://openscience-leipzig.org

It’s about time: untangling the changes in environmental concern
Of course, some nineteenth-century children actually drank alcohol directly, especially earlier in the century. One boy growing up in rural North Carolina in the 1810s said a shot of homemade moonshine “was as common as breakfast” first thing in the morning.61 Children also sometimes drank beer, hard cider, sugared rum and water, and other spirits.62 When she was a girl in the 1870s, the African American activist Mary Church Terrell drank an alcoholic toddy before school every morning, which her father gave her “for her health.”63 It also wasn’t unheard of for nineteenth-century mothers to dribble a little brandy into their babies’ milk to make them sleepy, or to dole out teaspoons of hard alcohol to children to strengthen them.64 But all this became less common over time. Attitudes to children’s drinking remained more permissive in Europe, but Americans increasingly frowned on it, especially as the temperance movement picked up steam later in the century.65 Still, everyone assumed children enjoyed the taste of alcohol. Concerns about children’s drinking sprang from worries over morality and health, not because anyone thought children couldn’t like the bitterness of beer or the bite of spirits.
Different view of heterogeneity. In medicine/psychology, random-effects models are the default because it’s plausible that the “true effect” genuinely varies across populations, doses, or contexts. Economists more often think heterogeneity across studies comes from identifiable differences — different specifications, samples, instruments, time periods — that should be modeled with moderators in a meta-regression rather than swept into a random error term. That leads to a preference for fixed-effect or meta-regression approaches that explain variance rather than average over it.
Thinking Clearly About Sampling and Representation With the Total Survey Error Framework Collecting a sample that represents the population of interest well constitutes a challenge across the social and behavioural sciences. Psychology in particular frequently relies on convenience samples—most notably students and, increasingly, online participants—with a tendency to either (implicitly) assume representativeness without substantive justification, or to acknowledge a lack of it only in passing. In contrast, researchers rarely engage with the actual implications for their inferences, which undermines the generalisability of psychological findings. Critically, representativeness must be defined with respect to variables relevant to the target of inference, rather than superficial demographic diversity. Here we present the Total Survey Error (TSE) framework as a methodological tool that systematically addresses the multifaceted sources of error—particularly those related to representation—that emerge throughout the research cycle. Although TSE originated in survey research, its principles are broadly applicable to any psychological study seeking inference from sample to population. We offer practical strategies for identifying, preventing, and mitigating representation errors to improve the credibility and generalisability of psychological research.
Zweistöckige Torte mit oranger creme in fragwürdiger Farbe, Schokoherzen und bunten Streuseln
Benjamin Blümchen Erdbeer-Schokotorte
Norman Rockwell’s freedom of speech meme: people should know things that are relevant to what they do
The authorities forced artisans and the poor to appear in black dress in church and at town gatherings. Consequently, the town was a sea of plain, black dress.
These were the fears. What about the reality? How much difference did these restrictions make? Clearly, they were unable to arrest the march of time and completely freeze societies in a static mould. Artisans would innovate with new styles and materials to stay ahead of the rule book. In many parts of Europe, living conditions picked up again after the ravages of the Thirty Years War. In the early seventeenth century, for example, men and women in Bondorf and Gebersheim, two villages in Württemberg, Germany, owned 3 and 12 articles of clothing respectively. A century later, the number had shot up to 16 and 27 pieces. By 1800, it had doubled again.57
In other words, the quality of a multiverse should generally be judged as no higher than the quality of the worst universe included. This moves the burden of proof towards the author and — unless all universes agree — requires them to fully accept responsibility for all of the universes included. It also makes it easier, not harder to make effective criticism of a multiverse, should they be used in bad faith.
Die Weberknechte (Opiliones), auch Geist, Habergeiß, Habermann, Kanker, (Opa) Langbein, Mähder, Schneider, Schneidergeiß, Schuster, Tod, Waldschreit, Weber und Zimmermann genannt, sind eine Ordnung der Kieferklauenträger (Chelicerata). German Wikipedia lists the following names for daddy longlegs: • Geist – Ghost • Habergeiß – Oat-goat • Habermann – Oat-man • Kanker – (regional word, related to “canker/decay”; no clean literal English equivalent) • (Opa) Langbein – (Grandpa) Longleg • Mähder – Mower/Reaper • Schneider – Tailor • Schneidergeiß – Tailor-goat • Schuster – Shoemaker/Cobbler • Tod – Death • Waldschreit – Forest-strider • Weber – Weaver • Zimmermann – Carpenter
„In der Mathematik geht man davon aus, dass es zu jeder ganzen Zahl eine nächstgrößere gibt. Dadurch ist die Menge aller natürlichen Zahlen unendlich groß. Doch laut Ultrafinitisten gibt es eine obere Grenze. Wo diese liegt, ist allerdings unklar."
Lebensmittelwarnung.de Produktrückruf für das Anaconda Survival Cook Set
The 5-Minute Plan from precious little sleep
If a centaur wore a baby, would he wear it... like this -- baby strapped to the chest of the human part or like this -- baby strapped to the belly of the horse
Figure 1. Diagram of an LPA/LCA model with a central circle labeled ‘LC’ (latent class). Two indicator variables, ‘Buttocks’ and ‘Breasts,’ point into LC from the left. Four predictor variables — ‘Egalitarian’ (top), ‘Intellectual’ (upper right), ‘Sexy’ (lower right), and ‘Materialistic’ (bottom) — point into LC via arrows. Caption reads: ‘Figure 1. The study’s LPA/LCA model (with two class indicators and four predictors).
Buttocks or Breasts? Identifying Latent Subgroups in Male Preferences for Female Bodily Features Mehmet Mehmetoglu Among the various physical traits that serve as secondary sexual characteristics, breasts and buttocks are visually conspicuous cues used in male mate evaluation because they signal youth, fertility, developmental stability, and nutritional status. Although these features have been extensively studied, less is known about the extent to which men differ in the relative importance they place on each trait. Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) identified distinct subgroups of Norwegian men (N = 395) based on how much importance they placed on breasts and buttocks in their evaluations of romantic partners. A four-class solution emerged, comprising Highly Body-Oriented (53%), Moderately Body-Oriented (20%), Buttocks-Oriented (18%), and Body-Unoriented (9%) subgroups. Predictors such as egalitarianism, materialism, and preferences for sexiness were, as expected, significantly associated with class membership, providing support for the validity of the typology. Notably, a consistent buttocks-oriented class emerged across all LPA solutions, whereas no distinct breasts-oriented group was found, as ratings of breasts persistently co-occurred with high ratings of buttocks, suggesting that breasts do not function as a primary preference in isolation. These findings reveal that buttocks may occupy a more central and stable role than breasts in male mate preferences, offering novel insights into the structure of physical attraction and heterogeneity in the male mating mind.
Very chubby baby arm
Chapter overview of the later chapters of precious little sleep on topics such as boundary testing, nightmares and night terrors…
Practical Steps to Reduce the Risk of SIDS Based on known risks for SIDS (and SUID), the following guidelines are strongly recommended for all of Baby’s first year: Never put your baby on their belly or side to sleep. Always put Baby on her back to sleep,12 and communicate clearly to other caregivers that they must do the same for the first year of sleep. Once Baby is flipping from back to front on her own, it’s fine to allow her to continue sleeping that way. (Note: Many babies sleep better on their stomachs, and you may feel that it’s okay “just this once” or because you have a monitoring device that claims to notify you if your child stops breathing. It is not. A good nap or fewer awakenings at night are not worth the increased risk. Don’t count on technology to enable unsafe choices, because there is currently no compelling evidence that technology is reliable for this.)
Fuss It Out (FIO) Who This Is Best For: Most babies older than 2 months Use all the great Power Tools that are age-appropriate for your child. Soothe your child until they are calm and drowsy. Put them in the crib while they’re still awake. Walk away. Set a timer for 15 or even 20 minutes. Wait for the full time allotment before returning to your baby—15 minutes can seem like an eternity, but it’s not, so no cheating. Regardless of how improbable it may seem that Baby will actually fall asleep, wait. Baby may fuss and grumble. Baby may sound as though he’s furious with you. (Note: He’s probably furious with you.) Give him space, see what he does with it. If your baby falls asleep, shazam! You’ve done it. This doesn’t mean you’re done and sleep will be one big puppy party from here on out, but you’ve taken a huge step toward independent sleep. This is your new bedtime routine. You may have some hiccups along the way and need to go in and help your child periodically, but for the most part you’ve successfully found a way to help your child sleep without you. But what happens if the timer goes off and your child is not asleep? Now you’ve got a decision to make, depending on the circumstances:
Cover of Alexis Dubief’s “Precious little sleep”
Sehr geehrte Frau Rohrer, die Schilddrüse ist sehr schön, Dear Ms Rohrer, the thyroid is very beautiful,
Babykarte mit einem kleinen Igel und dem Aufdruck „Servus Gloana Baby Knedl“
Blättrig-nadeliger Goethit vom Lake George, Park County, Colorado.
Carved head of a cucumber dragon
Garmin stress tracking from 3pm to 6:30. It’s all red aka high stress level, with a little dip just before 5pm
Dragon-shaped snack platter made from cucumber, cherry tomato and grape skewers, cheese cubes, blueberries, and curled red pepper strips.
When Avery Blank was at law school she had difficulty getting an internship because her applications were not taken seriously. People would see ‘Blank’ in the surname field and assume it was an incomplete application. She always had to get in touch and convince the selection committee that she was a real human. Brian Test and Jeff Sample fell foul of the same problem, but for slightly different reasons.
Post quote-posted below: I never thought I'd ask that question, yet here we are: Does anybody have a favorite mind map software? Use case: I'm trying to structure a lot of unstructured notes that connect different types of elements, which I'd like to be able to tag/sort into classes/whatever
Size also matters in bottles. Larger and larger bottles have appeared on club menus, most with biblical names like the jeroboam (3 liters) and methuselah (6 liters), which is the equivalent of eight regular bottles, priced at $40,000 for Cristal champagne at Club X. As bottle sizes increase on the menu, their prices rise exponentially, not linearly, as the display of the bottle size, not its liquid content, makes it valuable.22 Sometimes bottles are too heavy for the waitresses to carry, so large security guards bring them to the table and hoist them over a shoulder in order to pour the liquid into delicate champagne flutes. Because spirits are consumed more slowly and in smaller quantities, handles max out at 1.75 liters.
Cosmos mineral excavation kit for kids aged 7 to 11
Fly sitting on a pink fly swatter
A framed sticker of a sloth holding a band that says nap all day, sleep all night, party never
Flyer für Oskarshausen, eine der gelisteten Attraktionen: Kinder-Bergwerk Flyer for the amusement park “Oskarshausen”, one of the attractions: kids mine
Photo of a page from my daughter’s daycare portfolio. On the page, there’s a photo with three green mats that symbolize the different classes on the Titanic. Glass nuggets have been placed on them to represent passengers. Kindergarten kids are witnessing the scene.
cute chubby baby hand with a smiley face drawn on it
Participants were then randomly assigned to experience either low or high relative social class based on the following instructions: Now, please compare yourself to the people at the very bottom (top) of the ladder. These are people who are the worst (best) off—those who have the least (most) money, least (most) education, and the least (most) respected jobs. In particular, we’d like you to think about how you are different from these people in terms of your own income, educational history, and job status. Where would you place yourself on this ladder relative to these people at the very bottom (top)?
Franzi Franzbrötchen Likör
Pink spaghettieislikör served in a dark red 60s Likörglass.
A pink bottle of Franzi Spaghettieislikör
Wikipedia article on Maxwell’s demon, section headings. Circles is the section heading “recent progress”
Illustration of Maxwell's demon from Wikipedia By User:Htkym - Own work, CC BY 2.5, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1625737 Labels have been added: Maxwell's demon is German AC, one gas chamber is inside, the other one outside. The second panel says: The German AC only lets fast (= hot) molecules pass outside, thus lowering room temperature without creating surplus heat. Maxwell's demon is a thought experiment to ostensibly disprove the second law of thermo dynamics. From wikipedia: In the thought experiment, a demon controls a door between two chambers containing gas. As individual gas molecules (or atoms) approach the door, the demon quickly opens and closes the door to allow only fast-moving molecules to pass through in one direction, and only slow-moving molecules to pass through in the other. Because the kinetic temperature of a gas depends on the velocities of its constituent molecules, the demon's actions cause one chamber to warm up and the other to cool down. This would decrease the total entropy of the system, seemingly without applying any work, thereby violating the second law of thermodynamics.
Cover of Virginia Postrel's "The Power of Glamour: Longing and the Art of Visual Persuasion"
Japanese style cloth wrapped package with a card that says “Thank you for shopping with us. Your package was lovingly packed by” followed by illegible scribbles
Koro Pistazienschnitte Wafer sandwich filled with pistachio cream
Müller Reis mit Kokosmilch Typ Pistazien Cookie
Book cover of Einstein's Tutor: The story of Emmy Noether and the invention of modern physics
Elternfragebogen zur U8 MEF abgeändert nach Esser und Laucht.
Can of Collider Session IPA with a glass of beer next to it.
Mean satisfaction with the quality of friendships for boys and girls over time, separated by migration background. The gender gap opens somewhat in favor of boys among both groups.
DAGs for two different scenarios. Scenario 1: Survey mode causally affects the gender gap in life satisfaction. Scenario 2: Survey mode is confounded with the gender gap in life satisfaction.
Mean life satisfaction by survey mode in 2023. On tablets ("online") girls reported significantly lower satisfaction than on the paper version of the same questionnaire. This is not the case for boys.
Mean life satisfaction among female and male adolescents over time, split by migration background. Among students without migration background, there's only a very slight divergence in 2023. In students with migration background, girls ond boys in 2010 reported equal levels of life satisfaction that strongly diverged in 2023, with girls reporting lower satisfaction and boys higher satisfaction. 2015 is greyed out in these plots because the assessment of migration background in 2015 differed from the assessment in 2010/2023.