Daniel Donner

@donnermaps.bsky.social

4161 Followers 810 Following

Contributor @the-downballot.com. Focusing on data, maps, and demographics. Find our data (and the CD hexmap template!) at https://the-db.co/data

Seven blue districts radiating out from the Twin Cities on a map of Minnesota. Only one red district runs along the western border.
A hypothetical California congressional district map showing 52 seats won by Harris by more than 10 points. Many of the districts are elongated, stretching from the Bay Area or metro Los Angeles out into rural areas.
Under the proposed plan, there are four fewer safe democratic seats, but there are also four strong Republican seats that are replaced by seats lost by Biden by only about 10 points. In a very strong Democratic environment, some of these seats could be in play. For comparison, Democrats outperformed Biden's margin by 10 points in the recent FL-01 special election and 18 points in the FL-06 special election.
Stock price chart of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) showing a peak in April 2024 of around $80, descending to its current price of $9.17. Sad.
Graph showing only 51% of Republicans say the economy is currently getting better, down from about 70-75% before the Iran War.
We, therefore, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Waters, solemnly publish and declare, That these United States are, and of Right ought to be Free FROGS TOGETHER STRONG
In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury.
For altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments
For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever
For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences
For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent
For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world
For protecting them from punishment for any Murders which they should commit
For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us
He has excited domestic Insurrections amongst us
He has obstructed the Administration of Justice
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures
He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people
The history of the present King is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these Waters
Chart showing women who change their name upon marrying tend to be older, less educated, and more Republican.
Graph showing presidential approval jumped significantly at the initiation of the Gulf War and Iraq War. Grenada and Panama also provided a bump. For Afghanistan, Bush's approval was already at nosebleed-high levels and so there was essentially no bump. Trump's approval has gone down since the start of the Iran War.
Chart showing progression of the number of open Republican house seats over the election cycle for the years 2006 to 2026. 2026 is on a record-setting pace.
Graph of poll asking "Overall, do you think AI is having a positive or negative impact on the world?" with results shown decreasing from around -20 net negative impact in May 2025 to -39 in February 2026.
Dog food label reading "Ken-L Ration since 1922"
Map of Bush's approval ratings in February 2006. He is above 50% in only six states: ID, UT, WY, NE, OK, and AL.
Nine small maps showing presidential approval ratings by state and education level, and changes from 2006 to 2026. The maps are discussed in the following tweets.
Table showing median democratic overperformance in Special Elections Relative to 2020 Presidential Margin was 9.2 from Jan 23 to Oct 23, 0.2 from Nov 23 to Oct 24, 8.9 from Jan 25 to Oct 25, and 6.4 from Nov 25 to Feb 26
Political environment calculated from special elections for the 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024 and 2026 cycles as a function of time in the election cycle. 2026 shows the most democratic environment along with 2018. 2022 is near zero, 2020 is in the middle, and 2024 ended up between 2020 and 2018 (but started just as high as 2018).
Graph showing Democratic margins in Virginia special elections compared to 2020 presidential margins. 9 of 11 specials have Dem overperformances for the 2026 cycle, despite mostly taking place in very blue districts. In contrast, only 4 of 12 specials show Dem overperformances for the 2022 and 2024 cycles.
A graph showing Democrats outperforming the 2024 presidential margin in the vast majority of special elections in the 2026 cycle.
Democrats are outperforming in special elections for the 2026 cycle. Last night's Minnesota special election is highlighted in the upper right quadrant, with a margin of D+91 in a seat Harris won by 71 points.
A graph showing that this cycle's special election results consistently favor Democrats, on average.
A Doonesbury cartoon from 1987 about Trump's airline. In the last panel one character says "Wow! Marble tray tables!" and another says "I think I fractured my knee..."
Graph of special election margins vs 2024 presidential margins.
Extreme gerrymander: Proposed IN districts for 2026
Chart showing progression of the number of open Democratic house seats over the election cycle for the years 2006 to 2026. 2026 is on a record-setting pace.
Map of PA-04 from 1928
Chart showing progression of the number of open Democratic house seats over the election cycle for the years 2006 to 2026.
Graphic showing five quarter circles of diminishing sizes representing areas of 23.5, 8.6, 2.6, 0.7, and 0.2
Graph showing current price of frozen whole turkey hens at about $1.70 per lb compared to $1.00 per lb a year ago
A screenshot of an image search result for the phrase "examples of north korean propaganda" showing similar aesthetics to the Trump administration's graphics
Screenshot of USDA.gov website on 10/26/25 with a box of white text on a red background reading "Senate Democrats have now voted 12 times to not fund the food stamp program, also known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Bottom line, the well has run dry. At this time, there will be no benefits issued November 01. We are approaching an inflection point for Senate Democrats. They can continue to hold out for healthcare for illegal aliens and gender mutilation procedures or reopen the government so mothers, babies, and the most vulnerable among us can receive critical nutrition assistance."
Text reads "He has destroyed our institutions and toppled our monuments of democracy." Illustration depicts and excavator destroying a building.
Frogs frolicking in a field near a pond in front of mountains with poofy clouds and a rainbow
A scared and pained frog in a pot of steaming water
The US Capitol building, blocked by barricades, with frogs outside
A very mad frog in jail
Falling bills of currency with frog faces
A frog pond blockaded by barbed wire
A soldier chasing a panicked frog
A violent explosion.
An unhappy frog with a Gavel of Justice about to bang down on their head
A group of standing cranes staring down at a worried frog
A line of soldiers in silhouette