Dan Schroeder

@dvschroeder.bsky.social

872 Followers 214 Following

Physicist, educator, number-cruncher. Cartoon by the great Cal Grondahl. physics.weber.edu/schroeder

Screen capture from https://x.com/atrupar/status/2046612079122043392 of post by Aaron Rupar, sharing video clip of U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying "I'm pretty confident coal will lead the world in global electricity production when I die".
Map of the big island of Hawaii, with dots representing its utility-scale power plants: mostly oil-fired (brown), with one sizable geothermal plant (green) and a bit of solar (yellow), hydro (dark blue), and biomass (tan). Near the south end of the island is a light blue dot representing the island's only active wind farm, with a popup box of data: 21 MW, 60.6% capacity factor. Source: https://physics.weber.edu/schroeder/energy/PowerPlantsMap.html?lat=19.59861&lng=-155.58289&zoom=9&yr=2024&dotm=0&dotsz=0.92&show=2047
Map of the Hawaiian islands with a dot/circle for each utility-scale power plant, sized according to its net generation in 2024. The map is dominated by brown dots representing oil-fired plants, with a scattering of other colors for solar, hydro, wind, and biomass. The largest dots are in Oahu, reflecting its high population.
Screen capture of a spreadsheet table listing planned utility-scale electrical generation facilities in Hawaii, sorted by county.
Chart from https://ember-energy.org/data/us-electricity-data-explorer/ comparing monthly electricity generation from wind in Utah and Indiana, from 2008 through March 2026. Although it shows strong seasonal fluctuations, the curve for Indiana is is far above that for Utah and has risen more in recent years, now averaging about 13 times higher than Utah's.
Chart from EIA's Electricity Data Explorer (link below) showing US monthly electricity generation from coal and solar from January 2007 through April 2026. Both curves show large seasonal fluctuations, but the long-term trends have been steadily downward for coal (dropping by about a factor of 3) and steadily upward for solar (which was negligible in the early years and is plotted only beginning in 2014). The curves cross for the first time at the very last data point, for April 2026. This point is circled and labeled: 40,912 GWh solar, 39,777 GWh coal. Source URL: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/0?agg=2,0,1&fuel=vtvv&geo=g&sec=g&linechart=~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-99.M~~~~~ELEC.GEN.TSN-US-99.M&columnchart=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.M~ELEC.GEN.COW-US-99.M~ELEC.GEN.NG-US-99.M~ELEC.GEN.NUC-US-99.M~ELEC.GEN.HYC-US-99.M~ELEC.GEN.WND-US-99.M&map=ELEC.GEN.ALL-US-99.M&freq=M&start=200701&end=202604&ctype=linechart&ltype=pin&rtype=s&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0
Figure 6 from Herman Kahn's 1976 book "The Next 200 Years", captioned "Projected cost ranges for several types of solar energy". The horizontal axis runs from 1985 through 2020, while the vertical axis indicates the "cost ratio" of the given renewable technology to "conventional" energy sources. For each source, a band indicates the range of possible projections. The band for photovoltaics starts highest at 6 to 10 (times "conventional") but drops most steeply, ending at 0.7 to 1.0. The other bands are for solar thermal electricity, process heat, heating/cooling of buildings, ocean thermal electricity, wind, and bio-conversion. These start between 1 and 3 (times "conventional") and drop gradually to the range 0.7 to 2.0, with all but solar thermal electricity at 1.0 or less.
Figure 1 from Kahn's book The Next 200 Years, captioned "The Great Transition". The figure shows a schematic S-curve (flat at both ends but rising steeply in the middle), running from 1776 at the left to 1976 in the middle to 2176 at the right. At each of these three points, labels indicate the global population, gross world product (in 1975 dollars), and GNP per capita. The projection for 2176 is 15 billion people and a per-capita GNP of $20,000.
Oblique view (from Google Maps) of the neighborhood just west of downtown Salt Lake City, looking west to where the north-south railroad tracks loop outward to miss the two historic railroad stations and instead pass by the newer transit hub, which includes cheap and ugly building known locally as the Amshak. The two older stations and the transit hub are highlighted, with the rest of the image darkened.
View looking up a suburban, tree-lined street toward mountains that are barely visible through smoky haze.
Chart from the US EIA (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/) showing hourly electricity generation by source in the Pacificorp East balancing authority (PACE), for June 17-23, 2026. The main sources are coal, gas, solar, and wind. Coal's contribution fluctuates pretty abruptly in response to the big variations in solar (and wind to a lesser extent), with changes in coal generation by as much as a factor of 3 over about four hours.
Chart from https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/electric_overview/US48/US48 showing hourly electricity generation from June 15-21, 2026, broken down by source, for the 48 contiguous US states. The curve for natural gas is above all of the others at every hour of every day, varying between morning lows and evening highs. Nuclear is steady, at about half the average level of gas. Solar fluctuates the most, but barely exceeds nuclear at mid-day and never comes very close to gas. Coal fluctuates in a similar way to gas, but is almost always a little below nuclear. Wind and hydro are also significant, while many other sources are far lower than any of these.
Screen capture from https://fire.airnow.gov/#9.08/40.1126/-112.0131, made early on 21 June 2026, showing a map of the Iron Fire and its surroundings, including Utah Lake and Provo to the northeast. I have added labels for the towns of Eureka, Fairfield, and Eagle Mountain, as well as the outline of the Faraday Solar Farm. Although the mapped outline of the fire's extent does not extend to the solar farm, there are "satellite detection" dots covering a wider area that does include the solar farm.
World map with each country colored according to the largest single source of electricity in that country: either coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, solar, wind, or geothermal. Source: https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/what-is-the-largest-source-of-electricity-in-each-country
Chart from Ember showing annual electricity generation in Asia, broken down by sources, from 2018 through 2025. Solar and wind have grown over this time to become comparable to gas and hydro, but the most striking feature is that coal generation is still enormous compared to any of the others. Link to source: https://ember-energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/?entity=Asia&mode=split&date=2025-01-01&date_from=2018-01-01&metric=absolute
Stacked area chart showing 12-month trailing total of electricity generation in California (not CAISO!) broken down by source, from January 2002 through March 2026. The largest source over most of this time has been natural gas, but solar generation has grown tremendously in recent years and surpassed gas (in the 12-month trailing total) beginning in March 2025. There has been a notable decrease in gas generation over the most recent two years. From March 2024 to March 2026, the 12-month trailing total generation from gas dropped from 93k GWh to 69k GWh, a 26% decline. Chart from https://bpierpont.github.io/state-generation/.
Chart from the Ember Electricity Data Explorer of monthly electricity generation in the United States, broken down by source, from January 2022 through May 2026. Each of the nine curves shows significant seasonal fluctuations, but generally the order from highest to lowest is gas, nuclear, coal, wind, solar, hydro, bioenergy, other fossil (mostly oil), and other renewables (geothermal). The solar curve has been rising, however, often surpassing wind and now, for May 2026, barely surpassing coal (which is always low in the spring). The crossing point of these two curves is circled in red for emphasis.
First page of a more detailed derivation of Einstein's divergent integral expressing the ultraviolet catastrophe.
Chart from https://ember-energy.org/data/us-electricity-data-explorer/ of monthly CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled electricity generation in California and Texas, from January 2001 through March 2026. Both states show large seasonal fluctuations, and both show a slight gradual decline over the years. The Texas curve, however, is about four times as high as the California curve, indicating that TX CO2 emissions from electricity generation are about four times as high as CA. (These date do not include electricity imports, which would raise the curve for CA somewhat. On the other hand, CA's population is somewhat higher than that of TX.)
Stacked area chart of monthly trailing 12-month electricity generation in California by fuel type, from 2002 through early 2026. The chart shows total annual generation rising from 200,000 GWh in the earlier years to about 250 GWh more recently, with enormous growth in solar (much of it "distributed" rather than utility-scale). Fossil generation—almost entirely natural gas—has declined somewhat over this time period and now supplies less than 30% of the total. Source: @brendan.bsky.social, https://bpierpont.github.io/state-generation/
Two paragraphs from a 30 May 2026 Fox News report (https://www.foxnews.com/media/bill-maher-blasts-californias-education-results-cites-two-surging-red-states) on Bill Maher's recent show, in which he compared California's renewable energy development unfavorably to that of Texas. [begin quote from Fox News] "Texas has passed California in solar and blows away California when it comes to wind and energy storage," Maher said. "How does a state with no pro-climate policies produce better climate results than a state where here, even though we have so much better bumper stickers on our Priuses?" Energy Information Administration data cited by Inside Climate News showed Texas produced 58,634 gigawatt-hours from utility-scale solar in 2025, compared with California’s 53,713 gigawatt-hours. The outlet reported Texas passed California in installed utility-scale solar capacity in 2024, though California remained ahead when small-scale solar was included. [end of quote]
A brief excerpt from an English translation of Einstein's photoelectric effect paper, https://en.wikisource.org/?curid=59468. The excerpt reads: This condition for dynamic equilibrium not only lacks agreement with experiment, it also eliminates any possibility for equilibrium between matter and aether. The wider the range of frequencies of the resonators is chosen the bigger the radiation energy in the space becomes, and in the limit we obtain: \int_0^\infty \rho_\nu d\nu = \frac{R}{N} \frac{8\pi}{L^3} T \int_0^\infty \nu^2 d\nu = \infty.
Chart of world electricity generation, 12-month running totals, from January 2020 through March 2026, broken down by sources: coal, gas, hydro, nuclear, wind, solar, other fossil (mostly oil), bioenergy, and other renewables (mostly geothermal). Over most of the time period shown, the curves fall in the order just listed, from highest to lowest. But wind generation has been increasing, and solar has been increasing even faster, so that both converged with nuclear at around the start of 2026. The order of these three has now reversed, with solar highest, followed by wind and then nuclear.
Screen capture of a sentence from More and More and More: An All-Consuming History of Energy, by Jean-Baptiste Fressoz: "But rich countries have also seen their consumption of wood energy increase: the United States burns twice as much as it did in 1960, and Europe three times as much as it did at the beginning of the twentieth century." (I've highlighted the claim about the United States.)
Chart of global electricity generation by source, based on BloombergNEF New Energy Outlook 2026, Economic Transition Scenario. I have attempted (perhaps not very accurately) to convert the numbers in the Bloomberg version of the chart from percentage share to absolute terawatt-hours. The chart runs from 2000 through 2050, and shows curves for coal, gas, hydro, nuclear, oil, wind, and solar—in that order from highest to lowest during the early years. The chart shows future projections of dramatic increases in solar and wind, and a dramatic drop in coal, with hydro remaining flat, nuclear rising gradually, and oil dwindling to very low levels. Gas generation is projected to drop slightly until around 2035, then rise through 2050. After 2044 the order shown is (from highest to lowest) solar, wind, gas, hydro, coal, nuclear, oil.
Chart from linked BNEF article showing global energy (battery) storage additions by year, from 2020 through 2036 (projections), broken down by market (China, US, etc.). The chart shows extremely rapid growth up to the 2025 value of about 110 GW, then a slow-down over the next couple of years, followed by approximately linear growth to 300 GW by 2036.
A map of the 48 contiguous states with a blue dot for every wind farm, sized by the wind farm's total electricity generation in 2024. The dots are very strongly clustered in the Great Plains and are sparse or nonexistent in most of the eastern and western states. Source: https://physics.weber.edu/schroeder/energy/PowerPlantsMap.html?lat=27.76133&lng=-96.67969&zoom=4&yr=2024&dotm=0&dotsz=-0.1&show=256
Map of the U.S. (48 contiguous states) showing estimated temperatures at a depth of 5.5 km below ground level. Published by SMU (Blackwell et al., 2011). The map generally shows much higher temperatures in the western states.
Chart from the Ember Electricity Data Explorer of monthly electricity generation in the United States, broken down by source, from January 2022 through April 2026. Each of the nine curves shows significant seasonal fluctuations, but generally the order from highest to lowest is gas, nuclear, coal, wind, solar, hydro, bioenergy, other fossil (mostly oil), and other renewables (geothermal). The solar curve has been rising, however, often surpassing wind and now, for April 2026, barely surpassing coal (which is always low in the spring). The crossing point of these two curves is circled in red for emphasis. URL for interactive version of this chart: https://ember-energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/?metric=absolute&fuel=total&tab=main&chart=trend&temporal_res=monthly&date=2026-04-01&date_from=2022-01-01&mode=line&multi=false&entity=United+States
Google Maps screen capture showing the southwest side of Kemmerer, Wyoming, with the Naughton Power Plant near the northwest corner of the image and the Kemmerer Unit 1 Natrium Reactor near the south edge of the image, a few miles away.
Screen capture from OpenGridWorks showing electrical transmission lines in San Diego County, California.
Since August 2025, developers have faced a mix of setbacks, including not receiving expected communications from DoD, having meetings to discuss the status of their projects cancelled without the opportunity to reschedule, and being informed that the department has stopped processing their applications, according to people with knowledge of the situation. The affected projects include 35 that had completed negotiations and are awaiting sign-off from the DoD — first reported by Axios in March. More projects are now facing a shutdown — 30 of which had undergone negotiations, received verbal signoffs and were waiting for written confirmation, about 50 are in the process of negotiations and 50 that previously would probably have been declared risk-free, according to developers and consultants. The wind farms could generate 30 gigawatts, enough to power 15mn homes. Letters sent to developers in early April said the agency was reviewing its processes for evaluating energy projects’ impact on national security.
Chart of EU electricity generation vs. time of day, broken down by sources (wind, solar, hydro, biomass, geothermal, nuclear, gas coal, oil, waste) for 2 May 2026.
Screen capture showing part of the form EIA-860M data for planned US generating units as of March 2026, highlighting the entry for Fervo Energy's Cape Generation Station (Beaver County, UT), geothermal unit CP1G1. The planned operation month is 10 and the planned operation year is 2026. The nameplate, net summer, and net winter capacities are, respectively, 53 MW, 30 MW, and 33 MW.
Table from the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2025, page 417, showing world electricity sector projections for annual generation in the "Current Policies" scenario for the years 2035, 2040, and 2050. Although this scenario has coal still ahead of solar PV in 2035 (10,308 TWh to 9,068), it has solar PV well ahead of coal by 2040 (12,033 TWh to 9,619).
Chart of 12-month rolling totals of world electricity generation by source, from January 2020 through February 2026. Over most of this time period, the order of the sources from largest to smallest was coal, gas, hydro, nuclear, wind, solar, other fossil (oil), bioenergy, and other renewables (geothermal). Wind generation has been rising, however, and solar has been rising even faster, so that solar surpassed wind in late 2025 and both solar and wind surpassed nuclear around the start of 2026. Data from https://ember-energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/.
Cover illustration of the book Voodoo Science: The Road from Foolishness to Fraud by Robert Park (Oxford University Press, 2001). The illustration shows a single roadway or path in the foreground, which branches repeatedly into many paths receding into the distance.
New York Times chart of U.S. average price of unleaded gasoline (as reported by AAA) from around September 2024 through early March 2026. The chart shows an abrupt 11% increase during the most recent week, to the current value of $3.32 per gallon. The price was about the same back in September 2024, but gradually drifted down, with many fluctuations, to a minimum near $2.80/gallon at the end of 2025. The price then rose gradually during January and February, followed by the recent abrupt rise.
Stacked area chart of US annual electricity generation from 1950 through 2025. Total generation rose dramatically and pretty steadily through around 2007, then flattened until around 2021, and is now rising again. Coal generation accounted for about half the total until 2007 but has fallen dramatically since then, though it ticked upward in 2025. Gas, wind, and solar have grown dramatically in the last two decades, although wind has grown only slightly since 2022.
Chart of 12-month running totals of world electricity generation by source, from January 2020 through November 2025. The largest three sources during this time period are coal, gas, and hydro, in that order, with wide gaps between them and relatively little recent change. The next three are nuclear, wind, and solar, but nuclear has held steady while wind has increased and solar has increased even faster, so by November 2025 they are nearly in a three-way tie, with the order soon to become solar, wind, nuclear. The three minor sources, now far below solar, are other fossil (mostly oil), bioenergy, and other renewables (mostly geothermal).
Brief excerpt from NYTimes article (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/16/climate/endangerment-finding-auto-emissions-regulations.html): "The United States will essentially have no laws on the books that enforce how efficient America’s passenger cars and trucks should be."
Chart from https://ember-energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/?entity=Cuba&fuel=res showing annual electricity generation from renewable sources in Cuba from 2000 through 2023. The total has ranged from just over 1 TWh in 2002 down to just under 0.5 TWh in 2005. The largest share is bioenergy, which has declined significantly since 2000. Solar generation has grown to make up for much, though not all, of the decline in bioenergy. Hydropower has fluctuated over the years with no obvious long-term trend. Wind power has grown but remains the smallest of the four renewable electricity sources.
Map of the 48 contiguous states from https://physics.weber.edu/schroeder/energy/PowerPlantsMap.html, with a blue dot for every wind farm, sized by total generation in 2024. The map shows that the vast majority of US wind generation is concentrated in a band running from Texas up through the Great Plains, with a branch extending from Iowa eastward to Michigan. Wind generation is sparse in the northeastern and western states, and almost nonexistent in the southeast.
Tweet from Elon Musk on Sep 7, 2024: "The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. "These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years. "Flight rate will grow exponentially from there, with the goal of building a self-sustaining city in about 20 years. Being multiplanetary will vastly increase the probable lifespan of consciousness, as we will no longer have all our eggs, literally and metabolically, on one planet."
NASA photo of the vapor trail of the Space Shuttle Challenger as it exploded on the morning of January 28, 1986. We see a dense white and gray cloud trail rising from the lower left, against a black background. At the center of the photo the trail suddenly broadens into more of a ball shape, with multiple smaller trails chaotically shooting out from it.
Data table from the linked EIA site showing that during November 2025, the Intermountain Power Project generated 397,485 MWh from coal and 288,228 MWh from natural gas. Coal generation was similar during the three prior months, while there was no gas generation before November 2025.
Screen capture from the Global Energy Monitor Global Wind Power Tracker map (https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-wind-power-tracker/tracker-map/) showing a map of eastern China, Korea, and Taiwan, with a green dot for each operating offshore wind farm. There are well over a hundred of these dots strewn along China's east coast, from the Bohai Sea and Korea Bay in the north to Hainan in the south. There are also a few dots near the west coasts of Taiwan and South Korea.
Paragraph from Sammy Roth (www.climatecoloredgoggles.com/p/matthew-yglesias-climate): "Even worse, Yglesias subtly implies there's no real-world difference between reducing emissions slowly and reducing them quickly. He slams climate advocates for opposing fossil fuel projects that would keep the world from reaching net zero climate pollution by 2050, saying the perfect shouldn't be the enemy of the good — as if net zero were a purity test invented by activists, rather than a target set by leading scientists to ensure we maintain a reasonably safe planet."
Excerpt from essay by Sammy Roth (https://www.climatecoloredgoggles.com/p/matthew-yglesias-climate), responding to Matt Yglesias (https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/opinion/democrats-liberals-oil-gas-industry.html?unlocked_article_code=1.9k8.OPOh.i7NfuOm7AOLP&smid=url-share): "Energy-wise, the piece sounds like it was written a decade ago, when solar power was far more expensive and batteries didn't exist at scale. To hear Yglesias tell it, keeping the lights on affordably is possible only with gas. He should really spend more time in California, or even Texas, where cheap solar-plus-battery plants are limiting the need for costlier gas plants."
Image of the top of the front page of the Salt Lake Tribune, March 24, 1989, reporting on the University of Utah announcement of what came to be known as "cold fusion". The main headline reads "U. Fusion Finding Energizes Scientists". The article under the headline features a photo of Stanley Pons and Martin Fleischmann at their press conference, and its byline reads "By Tim Fitzpatrick And Anne Wilson". The article includes a quote from physicist Edward Teller, with a photo. A second article by Fitzpatrick has the headline "Nuke Fusion Offers Particle of Hope For a Better World".
Photo looking southwest from the Wasatch Mountains across South Ogden, Hill Air Force Base, and northwestern Davis County toward Great Salt Lake, Antelope Island, and the Stansbury Mountains. The valleys are filled with a thick haze layer, bright with reflected sunlight, with contrasting dark mountain peaks poking above it.
Photo of islands in Great Salt Lake and mountains beyond, with urban development in the foreground and gray clouds above. The sky near the horizon is bright and tinted orange, and this light from the sky is reflecting from much of the lake, contrasting with the dark shaded islands.
Screen capture from the EIA Hourly Electric Grid Monitor (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/electric_overview/balancing_authority/LDWP) showing a chart of hourly generation from coal within the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power balancing authority, from November 7 through December 6, 2025. The generation level bounced between about 310 MW and 640 MW until Nov 23, then settled at about 350 MW early on Nov 25, then abruptly dropped to zero on the morning of Nov 26. It has remained at zero since then.
Screen capture from https://deepfission.com/technology/ of section titled "Development Timeline", saying "Deep Fission plans to be commercially operational in Q3 2028" with a "150 MWe commercial plant".
Screen capture from the EIA Hourly Electric Grid Monitor (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/electric_overview/balancing_authority/LDWP) showing a chart of hourly generation by energy source within the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power balancing authority, from November 21-27. The data indicate that natural gas is almost always the largest source, with significant contributions from solar, wind, and coal. The curve for coal fluctuates in the approximate range of 350 to 630 megawatts up to mid-day on Wednesday, November 26, when it abruptly drops to zero. It remains at zero through all of November 27, Thanksgiving Day.
Screen capture from linked site (https://emp.lbl.gov/capacity-and-generation-state, "State %" tab) showing a map of solar PV generation in 2024 as a percentage of electricity consumption by state, for the 48 contiguous US states (with data for AK, HI, and DC in a side box). The highest percentages are in NV (34%), CA (29%), HI (22%), ME, AZ, UT (17% each), NM, RI (16% each), CO, MA (12% each), NC (10%), FL, TX (9% each). The US as a whole is at 7.5%, many states have very low values, with ND, KY, AK, KS, NE, OK, and WV all below 1%.
Chart of California's annual low-carbon (non-fossil) electricity percentage, from 2009 through 2024, including estimates for imported electricity and rooftop solar. Based on data from the California Energy Commission, https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/2024-total-system-electric-generation, except for in-state solar generation data is from Ember, https://ember-energy.org/data/us-electricity-data-explorer/. The numbers generally trend upward, with considerable fluctuations and changes in rate: 2009 34% 2010 38% 2011 42% 2012 33% 2013 35% 2014 35% 2015 38% 2016 46% 2017 54% 2018 53% 2019 58% 2020 57% 2021 56% 2022 58% 2023 62% 2024 66%
Chart of California's annual low-carbon (non-fossil) electricity percentage, from 2009 through 2024, including estimates for imported electricity and rooftop solar. Based on data from the California Energy Commission, https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/2024-total-system-electric-generation, except for in-state solar generation data is from Ember, https://ember-energy.org/data/us-electricity-data-explorer/. The numbers generally trend upward, with considerable fluctuations and changes in rate: 2009 41% 2010 44% 2011 49% 2012 39% 2013 40% 2014 41% 2015 44% 2016 54% 2017 60% 2018 59% 2019 62% 2020 61% 2021 59% 2022 62% 2023 64% 2024 67%
Chart of California's annual low-carbon (non-fossil) electricity percentage, from 2009 through 2024, including estimates for imported electricity. Based on data from the California Energy Commission, https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/2024-total-system-electric-generation. The numbers generally trend upward, with considerable fluctuations and changes in rate: 2009 41% 2010 44% 2011 49% 2012 39% 2013 40% 2014 40% 2015 42% 2016 52% 2017 58% 2018 57% 2019 60% 2020 58% 2021 56% 2022 58% 2023 60% 2024 63%