Ben Harris

@econharris.bsky.social

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Brookings VP and Director of Economic Studies. Former Assistant Treasury Secretary and Chief Economist to VP Biden. Co-author of The Retirement Challenge.

Line chart titled “Total Deficits as a Percentage of GDP” showing five projections from 2025 to 2036. The y-axis ranges from about 1% to 8% of GDP, and the x-axis shows years. The baseline (black line) rises gradually from about 5.7% in 2025 to around 6.6% by 2036, with a peak near 6.5% in the early 2030s. Traditional productivity (blue dashed line with squares) declines steadily from about 5.7% to roughly 1.6% by 2036. Labor market (red dashed line with triangles) trends downward from about 5.7% to around 4.0%. Health and mortality (green dashed line with diamonds) stays near 5.5–5.9% early on, then declines modestly to about 4.6% by 2036. Combined disruption (purple dashed line with squares) follows a similar downward path, falling from roughly 5.7–5.9% to about 4.0% by the end of the period.

Figure showing the in-migration, out-migration, and net immigration in the United States from 2020 to the present with projections for 2025 and 2026. Net immigration peaks in 2023 followed by a downturn, potentially reaching negatives in 2025 and 2026.