Chris Turnbull

@enemyinastate.bsky.social

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Journalist @Enemy In A State. "Gutter Journo" who, unfortunately, has to report from the gutter, as that's where 99.9% of politicians dwell patreon.com/c/EnemyInAState265

I have focused on one NPI for airborne transmission: masks/respirators. Another NPI is improving indoor air quality, as Morawska et al. [31] have recently called for. My model suggests that, for example, doubling the rate of turnover of air should reduce transmission by approximately 1 − 1/√2 ∼ 30%. This estimate is highly approximate but as obtaining population-level data on the effect of NPIs is so hard to do, this estimate may still be useful. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.
5 / 8 PHYSICAL REVIEW E 110, 064302 (2024) Estimating the population-level effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions when transmission rates of COVID-19 vary by orders of magnitude from one contact to another Richard P. Sear *,† School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, United Kingdom (Received 6 June 2024; accepted 7 October 2024; published 3 December 2024) Statistical physicists have long studied systems where the variable of interest spans many orders of magnitude, the classic example is the relaxation times of glassy materials, which are often found to follow power laws. A power-law dependence has been found for the probability of transmission of COVID-19, as a function of length of time a susceptible person is in contact with an infected person. This is in data from the United Kingdom’s COVID-19 app. The amount of virus in infected people spans many orders of magnitude. Inspired by this, I assume that the power-law behavior found in COVID-19 tran
HYSICAL REVIEW E 110, 064302 (2024) Estimating the population-level effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions when transmission rates of COVID-19 vary by orders of magnitude from one contact to another Richard P. Searo*,+ School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, United Kingdom (Received 6 June 2024; accepted 7 October 2024; published 3 December 2024) Statistical physicists have long studied systems where the variable of interest spans many orders of magnitude, the classic example is the relaxation times of glassy materials, which are often found to follow power laws. A power-law dependence has been found for the probability of transmission of COVID-19, as a function of length of time a susceptible person is in contact with an infected person. This is in data from the United Kingdom's COVID-19 app. The amount of virus in infected people spans many orders of magnitude. Inspired by this, I assume that the power-law behavior found in COVID-19 transm
ature Explore content v About the journal v nature > research highlights > article View all journals Publish with us v Subscribe Q Search Sign up for alerts Log in RSS feed RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT | 05 December 2024 What if everyone had masked up? Analysis of app data has an answer Modelling study based on almost 250,000 positive COVID-19 tests in the United Kingdom shows that universal masking could have cut transmission markedly. f K N95
Antonio Vargas B @Anto731 There are many Covid symptoms in people from Congo, probability of a new variant? 11:05 am . 4 Dec 2024 . 254 Views ...
Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing 2) The reported symptoms in patients include: . Fever . Headache . Nasal discharge and cough . Difficulty breathing · Anemia 9:16 am . 4 Dec 2024 . 10.9K Views ... 4 t7 38 165 4
Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing MYSTERY EPIDEMIC IN CONGO-Health officials investigate a new unidentified mystery flu-like disease in southwest Congo after 143 deaths, mostly in kids. WHO has now been dispatched according to sources. AP ASSOCIATED PRESS apnews.com Health officials investigate mystery disease in southwest Congo after 143 deaths From apnews.com 9:15 am . 4 Dec 2024 . 24.1K Views
19 (male) USA Death (COVID-19; Positive "incredibly tired for two weeks ... it was secretly attacking his body in a way they have never seen before") WFRB [38], New York Times [39] 19 (male) Canada Death (COVID-19) Positive CBC [40] USA (male) Recovered (COVID- Positive, GoFundMe [41], 19 (mild symptoms Negative The Fresno Bee for about a week, then chills, body aches, high fever, open-heart surgery, existing heart malformation found and valves on verge of failure) and Positive [42] "a talented basketball player" "all- time leading scorer" "member of the 2018 USSSA National Championship team" "Star athlete" "demonstrated academic and athletic perseverance" "Great student. 19 Great athlete" “played football, baseball and track" "named the homecoming king his senior year"
exceptional" "National Honors Society inductee" "had so much going on for her, ... future was bright" "extremely bright" "schedule was vigorous - top academic courses, including organic chemistry" "She picked up things so fast" 17 (female) USA cadiomegaly) Death (COVID-19; died two weeks after testing positive; found unresponsive in home) Positive BuzzFeed [26], NBCDFW [27] 18 (female) USA Death (COVID-19) Not reported Voice [28] The Citizens'
"intelligent" “bright" 8 (female) USA "A smart child" 9 “phenomenal" USA (female) CNN [5], Obituary [6]] "a curious student" “what you want every student to be" "lover of books ... always sneaking in extra reading time during classes, even during math" "leader" 9 USA (female) Death (COVID-19; paralysis in her arms and legs; brain inflammation) Positive (post- mortem) Positive WLWT [7], The Highland County Press [8], Spectrum News 1 [9] Death (COVID-19; Positive anosmial, died 4days after testing positive) Death (COVID-19) News Observer [4]
Table 1. News and social media reports of severe paediatric COVID-19 outcomes from March 15 to September 30 2020. Evidence of a Age(sex) Country Outcome high IQ "a bright little girl" 3 (female) USA Death (COVID-19) Information source(s) New York Daily News [1] “very bright” "smart little cookie" 5 USA (female) "a very intelligent and mature girl for her age" "learning English at lightning speed" “intelligent” “bright" 6 (female) USA COVID- 19 test Positive (post- mortem) Death (COVID-19; Positive ABC News [2] developed rare form of meningitis and brain swelling; died <2weeks after on ventilator) Death (COVID-19) Positive Tampa Bay Times [3] 8 USA (female) Death (COVID-19; Positive News Observer anosmial, died 4days after testing positive) [4]
NSW Health @NSWHealth Replying to @NSWHealth and @Taniabanks24 Sadly, COVID-19 itself has been associated with an increase in out of hospital cardiac arrest and sudden deaths in young people. 1:04 am . 11 Nov 2022 . Twitter Web App NSW 1,411 Retweets 399 Quote Tweets 2,574 Likes O 3
Evidence of myocarditis with high athletic intelligence In several of the paediatric cases of severe COVID-19 outcomes that we present in Table 1, the children were described as exceptionally talented athletes who experienced severe cardiac complications after SARS-CoV-2 infection. In the context of our hypothesis, and the 'hyper brain, hyper body' paradigm, we treat these cases as reflecting a high physical IQ [80] or high psychomotor [18], bodily-kinesthetic [ 19] intelligence; they are "exceptionally gifted" athletes [22] with "high performance brains, as well as bodies" [81]. Between June and August 2020, a group of doctors in the USA performed cardiac magnetic resonance imaging on 26 competitive college athletes recovering from COVID-19 disease, and reported that 15% had "findings suggestive of myocarditis" [82]. None of the athletes tested required hospitalization when infected, but these results convinced the country's Pac-12 and Big Ten collegiate conferences to postpone games
following SARS-CoV-2 infection have been cast in terms of concerns that the virus "may damage brain cells" [68]. King et al. also recommended lifetime cardiovascular management following Kawasaki disease [69], echoing concerns related to dysregulated immune response and acute myocarditis with COVID-19. One more eponymous autoimmune disease to receive attention during the pandemic is Parkinson's disease[70], [71], which can present with increased levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines in the brain, including IL-6 [72] and immune dysregulation [73]. Over the course of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, there was "a 2-3-fold-increased risk" of Parkinson's disease [74], and in October 2020, Israeli physicians reported a single case of probable parkinsonism following SARS-CoV-2 infection [75]. Moreover, Swedish research published in the same month identified high IQ as a risk factor for Parkinson's disease [76], which reiterates previous findings reliant on occupational complexity measures [77],
dentifying similarities between autoimmune diseases and COVID-19 Based on reports of antiphospholipid syndrome, autoimmune cytopenia, Guillain-Barré syndrome and Kawasaki disease, a "crossroad" of autoimmunity and SARS-CoV2 infection has been a topic of considerable interest to researchers (reviewed by Rodríguez Y et al. [60]). Early connections between COVID-19 outcomes and MIS-C highlighted similarities with the acute multisysteminflammatory Kawasaki disease, one of the most common causes of acquired heart disease in children. Our review did not find an association between paediatric Kawasaki disease and a high IQ, other than noting a significantly higher incidence of the disease in South Asian countries (highest in Japan [61]), which rank top in international IQ lists [62]. Of relevance however, levels of IL-6 can be significantly higher when Kawasaki disease patients develop (even rarer) Kawasaki disease shock syndrome (KDSS) [63], such that treatment strategies stress the importa
ASD, ADHD, twice exceptional Intelligence and gifted Over- excitabilities Physiological and psychological stress Inflammation and immune dysfunction Interleukin-6 Neuro- inflammation Parkinson's disease Myocarditis SARS-CoV-2 and MIS-C Download: Download high-res image (223KB) Download: Download full-size image Fig. 1. Intersections of studies cited that support a potential association between a high IQ and severe paediatric COVID-19 outcomes.
Furthermore, based on the increased risk of inflammation and immune dysregulation reported in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) [53], [54], researchers have been prompted to examine whether ASD could be a paediatric risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 [55]. This may be particularly relevant to our hypothesis given a recent synthesis report that proposed a genetic connection between ASD and a high IQ ("autism as a disorder of high intelligence" [56]). Offering "new insights and research questions into the nature and inter-relationships of intelligence, autism, and schizophrenia", the article cited genetic studies suggesting common alleles "for" autism "overlap substantially and significantly with alleles "for" high intelligence". Given these shared alleles, together with evidence of a high IQ co-occurrence in some children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) [58] (a condition commonly co-existing in children with ASD [57]), it is plausible that children with a high IQ
IQ, stress and autism spectrum disorder Acting as a pro-inflammatory cytokine, IL-6 is also elevated by psychological stressors, such as depression, with "an increased secretion" found in "high-stressed children" [44]. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been reported as posing significant psychological health risks to all children [45], but evidence suggests that a high IQ may increase those risks [46], [47]. Dabrowski included "imaginational, and emotional domains" in his description of multiple intelligences in individuals with a high IQ [18], and other researchers have suggested these individuals are "more sensitive to existential issues" [48]. One report on suicide in children with a high IQ described them as "understanding adult situations and world events but being powerless to affect their outcomes" [49]. Some perceived "problems that the world created" as "catastrophic", and their "solution was to remove all the problems, all at once". Correspondingly, a recent literature review explo
n the first week of infection, SARS-CoV-2 activates T cells, including virus-specific memory CD4+ cells that peak within two weeks, and remain detectable for a longer period in up to 100% of COVID-19 patients [38]. Long-lived memory T and B cells are a key feature of autoimmune diseases such as jSLE and lupus nephritis (LN), to name two, and in jSLE, an association with pro-inflammatory cytokines is evident [39], [40]. Of relevance, given the evidence linking IL-6 and a high IQ, recent reports indicate that "SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells" and "long-lasting memory T cells" may have a protective effect in patients recovering from COVID-19, and those who have never contracted the disease [41]. A 2008 study of H17 influenza virus in rodents reported that the activity of CD4+ T cells "diminished in the absence of IL-6", thereby compromising protective anti-viral immunity. When the virus activated dendritic cells (which process and present antigen to Tcells), high levels of IL-6 were produced
The role of interleukin-6 overproduction in SARS-CoV-2 infection Interleukin-6 (IL-6) is a pleotropic cytokine with a key role in regulating the body's immune response to viruses, and its overexpression is associated with immune system dysregulation [27]. Macrophage activation syndrome (MAS), which is related to hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH), is a rare complication of systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (SJIA), an autoimmune paediatric disease where increased levels of IL-6 correlate with disease activity [28]. Increased levels of IL-6 are noted with juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (jSLE) [29], [30], and have been used as a potential biomarker in the treatment of paediatric patients with non-juvenile idiopathic arthritis [31]. Elevated IL-6 levels have also been associated with increased disease severity in influenza virus infections; H1N1 influenza A [32], SARS-CoV-1 [27], and numerous paediatric cases with SARS-CoV-2 [33], including MIS-C [9], [34], [35]. A recen
Numbers of severe paediatric COVID-19 outcomes worldwide are currently very small (a near zero mortality rate [93]; 0.07% children have died in the USA [94]) and an estimated 2% of the general population has a high IQ [15], [85]. Via media reports alone, our review identified 27 cases where evidence of a high IQ was indicated (including 17 deaths in the USA, or 15% of the total 112 deaths reported there by October 1, 2020 [94]). Autoinflammatory evidence suggests IL-6 may amplify paediatric response to infections and contribute to a cytokine storm, and some researchers suggest, "Early detection of children with mild symptoms or an asymptomatic state, and early diagnosis of MIS-C are mandatory for the management of COVID-19 and the prevention of transmission and a severe inflammatory state" [95]. Similarly, Karpinski et al. argued the beneficial impact of understanding the relationship between high IQ and illness, and recent SJIA studies report a very low rate of MAS episodes (or milder
The body's innate and acquiredimmunesystems are critical in responses to a wide spectrum of assaults, including SARS-CoV-2 infection. We identify studies of autoimmunity to support our hypothesis that a high intelligence quotient (IQ) may put children at increased risk for severe COVID-19 sequelae; especially those whose viral load is high and/or who develop multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C). MIS-C is associated with a higher risk of COVID-19 morbidity and death, even in otherwise healthy children. As information and evidence about SARS- CoV-2 infection continue to expand, our hypothesis suggests adding a potentially intriguing piece to the pandemic puzzle for further investigation. Drawing on a select review of published research and case reports, we discuss immune dysregulation in paediatric patients with a high IQ, including post-infection cytokine expression in the myocardium. Further, we provide a review of 27 paediatric (≤19years; median age 16) case
ASD, ADHD, twice exceptional Intelligence and gifted Over- excitabilities Physiological and psychological stress Inflammation and immune dysfunction Interleukin-6 Neuro- inflammation Parkinson's disease Myocarditis SARS-CoV-2 and MIS-C Download: Download high-res image (223KB) Download: Download full-size image Fig. 1. Intersections of studies cited that support a potential association between a high IQ and severe paediatric COVID-19 outcomes.
High intelligence may exacerbate paediatric inflammatory response to SARS-CoV-2 infection Pauline McDonagh Hull a g Show more Outline https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mehy.2021.110677 7 Under a Creative Commons license 7 Bonnie M. Lashewicz a, Marvin J. Fritzler b V + Add to Mendeley Share Cite Get rights and content 7 . open access
"This is a helpful trend to look at because it suggests that these interventions, when you stop them, are associated with increases in hospital-onset respiratory viruses, and then when you restart them, they're associated with a decrease," Pak said. During the study time period, there were 641,483 total hospital admissions and among them, 30,071 community-onset and 2,075 hospital-onset SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and RSV infections. Unadjusted analyses revealed that the mean weekly ratio between hospital-onset and community-onset infections rose from 2.9% before Omicron dominance to 7.6% during Omicron dominance (95% CI 6%-9.1%). After universal testing and masking ended, the ratio surged to 15.5% (95% CI 13.6%-17.4%). It dropped to 8% after healthcare workers began masking again (95% CI 5%-11%). Pak noted that as hospitals enter another winter respiratory virus season, many are thinking about curbing infections. "Our study would support the use of targeted universal masking, which I th
This sort of gave us a natural opportunity to look at a before-and-after then in terms of rates of hospital-onset COVID, adjusting for all the other things that we could in this kind of study, particularly community rates of COVID infection," Pak told MedPage Today. In January 2024, Mass General Brigham reinstituted masking for healthcare workers but not patients, which led to hospital-onset respiratory viral infections declining by one-third. "This is a helpful trend to look at because it suggests that these interventions, when you stop them, are associated with increases in hospital-onset respiratory viruses, and then when you restart them, they're associated with a decrease," Pak said.
fter these safeguards were removed, there was a 25% jump in hospital-onset respiratory viral infections compared with the preceding Omicron-dominant period (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.02-1.53), reported Theodore Pak, MD, PhD, of Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, and colleagues. When hospital staff began masking again, the rates of hospital-onset respiratory viral infections decreased by 33% (RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.52-0.85), they wrote in a JAMA Network Open research letter. In May 2023, 10 Mass General Brigham hospitals stopped pandemic-era precautions of testing patients for SARS-CoV-2 upon admission and requiring masking. During universal testing, SARS-CoV-2 tests were collected for 92.9% of patients compared with 26.5% after universal testing ended. "When our healthcare system stopped universal admission testing and masking there was, after adjustment, a 25% increase in hospital-onset respiratory viral infections, which includes COVID, flu, and RSV [respiratory syncytial virus], compar
= Q ATHLETICS ARTS & CULTURE CAMPUS & COMMUNITY PEOPLE RESEARCH N95 Masks Nearly Perfect at Blocking COVID, UMD Study Shows Researchers Found Even Lower-Performing Masks Were Protective By Fid Thompson / May 31, 2024 f 1
MEDPAGETODAY* Infectious Disease > RSV Want to Limit Respiratory Virus Infections? Mask and Test in Hospitals - Healthcare workers masking makes a difference, study found by Rachael Robertson, Enterprise & Investigative Writer, MedPage Today November 27, 2024 4 X in Medical News From Around the Web CNN I don't have diabetes, but I wore a glucose monitor for six weeks. Here's what I learned about food (and anxiety) | CNN USA TODAY Weight loss drugs Wegovy and Zepbound strain budgets amid skyrocketing copays FORBES On This World AIDS Day, Experts Worry That Recent Gains May Be Lost Stopping universal masking and SARS-CoV-2 testing in hospitals led to a surge in hospital-onset respiratory viral infections relative to community infections, a cohort study found.
WILEY"Online Library Search MJA Perspective a Open Access Towards a cure for long COVID: the strengthening case for persistently replicating SARS-CoV-2 as a driver of post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 Michelle JL Scoullar , Gabriela Khoury, Suman S Majumdar, Emma Tippett, Brendan S Crabb First published: 24 November 2024 | https://doi.org/10.5694/mja2.52517 SECTIONS The Medical Journal of Australia Australia's most trusted source of medical information cc PDF TOOLS SHARE New insights into post-acute sequelae of coronavirus disease 2019 (PASC) or long COVID are emerging at great speed. Proposed mechanisms driving long COVID include the overlapping pathologies of immune and inflammatory dysregulation, microbiota dysbiosis, autoimmunity, endothelial dysfunction, abnormal neurological signalling, reactivation of endogenous herpesviruses, and persistence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).1,2 In this commentary, we describe some of these advances that
Irish dad #NotMild #CovidlsAirborne get it @amused_as_hell . 25 Nov ... She should maybe consider actually wearing one of these, given the blatant misinformation she's been told to her face under oath by @Lisaritchie111 & @SMHopkins and the constant coughing in inquiry room. FFP2, ffp3 unnecessary. Maybe get better HEPA filters than camfil as well CADR and Purchase cost 12 So here's bey ouchange botares Baroness Hullefl II 0:02 0% tl 10 56 O ilil 856 Beth Campbell Duke 320.23 ppm @BCampbellDuke . 25 Nov Wonder how she caught it. This demonstrates the importance of using a respirator in enclosed spaces during an ongoing pandemic. This is yet another opportunity to start showing leadership. Please take it. #MaskUp #N95sSaveLives t7 4 16
Prof Rhys Thomas MBBS MD FRCA @rhysthomas This is the problem doing a people facing job with an airborne pathogen at large. Should be paid 'danger money'. 10:47 am . 25 Nov 2024 . 801 Views t73 48 1 Post your reply Reply @wendymcg63 . 25 Nov ... t7 il 58 ... 3 WendyM X And should mask? 2 Prof Rhys Thomas MBBS MD FRCA @rhysthomas . 25 Nov And should ventilate with HEPA & UVC to minimise risk ... after all who wants to die or get sick from 'just' going to work 12 il 58
UK Covid-19 Inquiry @covidinquiryuk Due to a chest infection, Baroness Hallett will chair this week's Module 3: 'Healthcare systems' public hearings remotely. You can watch hearings live from 12:00pm (with a three minute delay) on our YouTube channel youtube.com/@UKCovid-19Inq ... ALT 10:25 am . 25 Nov 2024 . 56.1K Views 43 t7 86 123 23
Nancy @naner81 . 2h WTF is wrong with you. Whoever runs this account is a disgrace to public health. DON'T CONSIDER wearing a mask, JUST DO IT. WE SHARE THE AIR. 1 IN 28 IN ONTARIO CURRENTLY HAVE COVID. It's definitely more since Taylor's superspreader events that you so gleefully promoted. ill 203 35 DOSSRUPTARO Corruptario @corruptario . 1h Are you fucking kidding? Q1 Mary Lou Tatton @MLTspecialties . 1h Have you people lost your minds as well as your ethics? Did Covid turn your brains to Swiss cheese? Stop this. You're collectively being awful in messaging actual PH and ongoing Covid. Go 'wash' your brains while you're 'washing your hands'. Gaslighting extraordinaire. Q1 I happyintrovert @yankeefanbetta . 1h In other words .... if you got covid from the super spreaders event stay home. We continue to fail the public by pretending hand washing is sufficient in stopping the spread of an airborne virus. Cheers ! t7 Fab Beauroy @pandabearmom . 2h Who is writing this stuff?
TdotMum @TdotMum . 1h I'd urge anyone that finds this message offensive to complain to Toronto Public Health about this. @TOPublicHealth you have lost the plot. #ProtectNotInfect @MayorOliviaChow ... IIl TORONTO Q1 Concerned Citizen I* Do you mean, if you got Covid - a neurovascular pathogen, because you didn't wear a mask because public health told you to vax and relax & didn't properly warn the you about the dangers? Some will never recover. #LongCovid. toronto.ca Toronto Public Health - Complaints & Compliments Toronto Public Health's Feedback and Complaints process is for concerns related to services provide ... t79 36 ilu 287 @malolisica . 2h D 42 lu 274 ... O t7 10 Scott Squires @scottsquires.bsky.social @scott_squires . 1h You didn't push people to mask before the event which would have helped many from getting covid & now you 'consider' mask. Sick people: stay home! Wear a mask if you live with others! Wear a mask if you're silly enough to go out. You wouldn't
Toronto Public Health @TOPublicHealth We know "all too well" how magical it was having Taylor Swift & her fans here in Toronto If you're feeling "delicate" from the concert, "soon you'll get better"! Stay home if you are sick and consider wearing a mask. #TaylorSwift #TS13 #TaylorSwiftToronto D TORONTO ALT Credit: Paolo Villanueva (@itspaolop) 4:00 pm . 25 Nov 2024 . 4,426 Views
The primary driving factor of both current and future excess mortality is respiratory disease (including COVID-19 and influenza), with other causes including cardiovascular disease, cancer and metabolic illnesses. The cause of death split varies by a country's reporting mechanism. Optimistic scenarios require healthcare and medical advancements Swiss Re's report examines an optimistic scenario where excess mortality rates return to pre-pandemic levels as early as 2028. In this scenario, medical advances, such as weight loss injectables and cancer developments such as personalised mRNA vaccines, combine with a drop in the impact of COVID-19 and healthier lifestyle choices. Indirect impact of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality The interplay between COVID-19 and cardiovascular death rates is significant for excess mortality. The virus itself has a direct impact because it contributes to causes of death such as heart failure. Further, COVID-19 has had an indirect impact via the disruption to healthcare systems - a factor which emerged in the pandemic years. This disruption has led to a backlog of essential cardiac tests and surgeries, meaning that conditions such as hypertension have been underdiagnosed and therefore not treated.
Paul Murray, CEO L&H Reinsurance at Swiss Re says: "COVID-19 is far from over. The US reported an average of 1500 COVID-19 deaths a week for 2023 - comparable to fentanyl or firearm deaths.If this continues, our analysis suggests a potential scenario of elevated excess mortality extending over the next decade. However, excess mortality can return to pre-pandemic levels much sooner. The first step is to get COVID under control, with measures such as vaccinations for the vulnerable. Over the longer term, medical advancements, a return to regular healthcare services, and the adoption of healthier lifestyle choices will be key."
Paul Murray, CEO L&H Reinsurance at Swiss Re says: "COVID-19 is far from over. The US reported an average of 1500 COVID-19 deaths a week for 2023 - comparable to fentanyl or firearm deaths.If this continues, our analysis suggests a potential scenario of elevated excess mortality extending over the next decade. However, excess mortality can return to pre-pandemic levels much sooner. The first step is to get COVID under control, with measures such as vaccinations for the vulnerable. Over the longer term, medical advancements, a return to regular healthcare services, and the adoption of healthier lifestyle choices will be key."
. Report suggests potential excess mortality in the general population of up to 3% for the US by 2033 and 2.5% in the UK, the longest period of elevated peacetime excess mortality in the US . Key driver of excess mortality is the lingering impact of COVID-19; both as a direct cause of death, and as a contributor to cardiovascular mortality . Reducing the impact of COVID-19 on elderly and vulnerable populations will be key to excess mortality returning to zero Zurich, 16 September 2024 - Four years after the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries are still reporting elevated all-cause excess mortality compared with pre-pandemic levels. According to Swiss Re Institute's report The future of excess mortality after COVID-19, if the ongoing impact of the disease is not curtailed, excess mortality rates in the general population may remain up to 3% higher than pre-pandemic levels in the US and 2.5% in the UK by 2033.
Swiss Re Swiss Re Group > Media > Press Releases Covid-19 may lead to longest period of peacetime excess mortality, says new Swiss Re report
The Record "Individuals who are infected with COVID have many fewer T-cells," said Katzenback. "That's a problem for us because T- cells are a really important part of our immune system that helps defend us against infection." But at least three studies show COVID-19 actually kills off a significant number of the body's T-cells, so even when a someone recovers from COVID, they are at a heightened risk for other viral, bacterial and fungal infections. "That is causing a lot of people to go to the emergency rooms, rightly so, to seek medical aid and it is overwhelming our health care system," said Katzenback. The only other virus that attacks and kills T-cells is HIV, which causes AIDS, said Katzenback
But the major evidence we found for the primary etiology is that lymphocytes are infected by SARS-CoV-2[12] and when it happens viroporin 3a (ORF3a) [13] interacts with NLRP3 causing pyroptosis [14]. Pyroptotic immune cell-secreted pro-inflammatory cytokines might worse lymphopenia via the direct killing of lymphocytes, contributing to the dysfunction of adaptive immunity in COVID-19, and it is very well correlated with COVID-19 immunopathogenesis[15]. Even when SARS-related coronaviruses (SARS-CoVs) can hardly replicate in lymphocytes 16] due to rapid apoptosis or pyroptosis, and even when only a few times pyroptosis happens, virions from inside the lymphocyte can release intact outside, ready to infect another T-cells. This casuistic is a very clear picture of the strategy for viral persistence. The natural evolution of SARS-CoVs, in addition to spread-out more effectively by air, is to reduce the response capacity of the immune system to persist longer in the host, causing Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome.
5. Conclusions According to the results of the In-Silico, it is evidenced a natural evolution of the Betacoronavirus genera in order to balance propagation, infectivity and persistence. The main genotypes are evidenced in S/493, S/484, N/120 and N/152. Optimizing S/493 and S/484 means better airborne spread by infecting more the lungs and nasopharyngeal tissue meanwhile N/120 and N/152 genotypes reduce the Immune Response infecting lymphocytes allowing the virus to persist indefinitely, causing an Acquire Immune Deficiency Syndrome and other related syndromes to chronic viremia, especially with ALTuses that cause respiratory and blood diseases.
Original Article Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome correlation with SARS-CoV-2 N genotypes Inigo Ximeno-Rodrigueza 0 , Irene Blanco-delRio , Egoitz Astigarragab Gabriel Barreda-Gómez b ª Ixilka Biotech S.L, Bizkaia, Spain b Research and Development Department, IMG Pharma Biotech S.L, Derio, 48160, Bizkaia, Spain Received 26 December 2022, Revised 5 June 2023, Accepted 5 August 2023, Available online 19 August 2023. Show less
2000 1500 1000 500 0 Daily incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection per million people A 2500- Variant Alpha Delt 10micron Other Jan 1 2021 Feb 1, March 1, April 1 2021 2021 2021 May 1, 2021 June 1 2021 July 1 2021 Aug 1, 2021 Sept 1 2021 Date Oct 1, 2021 Nov 1, 2021 Dec 1, 2021 Jan 1 2022 Feb 1, March 1, 2022 2022 April 1, 2022 B Individual sequela Alpha O- Composite of sequela or death Delta Omicron Anxiety disorder Cognitive deficit Dementia Encephalitis Epilepsy or seizures Guillain-Barré syndrome Insomnia Intracranial haemorrhage Ischaemic stroke 0.68 Mood disorder Myoneural junction or muscle disease Nerve, nerve root, and plexus disorder Parkinsonism Psychotic disorder Any first outcome 0.50 0.99 0.96 0.93 0.96 0.73 0.95 0.81 0.98 0.96 0.98 1.08 0.99 0.94 0.95 0.99 0.98 0.95 0.97 1.04 0.99 1.01 1.00 1.17 1.05 0.56 0.97 0.94 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.75 1.50 Hazard ratio (95% CI) 1.00 2.00 0.50 1.50 Hazard ratio (95% CI) 0.75 1.00 1.10* 1.26# 1.13* 1.38 0.60 1.49$ 1.22 1.53: 1.26 1.51 0.68 1.53: 1.19* 1.45# 1.11 1.51: 1.27* 1.51: 0.99 1.32: 1.19 1.52$ 1.04 1.37₺ 0.86 1.53# 1.15 1.53: 1.08* 1.18$ 2.00 0.50 0.75 1.50 Hazard ratio (95% CI) 1.00 1.04 0.841 0.94 0.73# 1.48* 0.70 0.60 0.97 0.71 0.19 0.67# 0.95 0.74 1.25 0.70 0.94 0.71$ 1.20* 0.82 0.77 0.69 1.38 0.83 0.55 0.68 0.96 0.70 1.03 0.90 2.00
Conclusions Together, these data refute our initial hypothesis that the burden of Neuro-PASC will be greater for older adults. Our study demonstrates the opposite finding that younger and middle-age patients with Neuro-PASC are more severely affected than older patients, regardless of the severity of their acute COVID-19 and hospitalization status. We showed that younger and middle-age patients suffer from a higher burden of neurologic symptoms, fatigue, sleep disturbance, and cognitive dysfunction contributing to decreased QoL, compared to older patients with Neuro-PASC. However, older Neuro-PASC patients more frequently have abnormal findings on their neurologic exam, likely corresponding with a higher burden of pre-existing comorbidities. This is the first cross-sectional study to report an association of neurologic manifestations of PASC with young and middle age. Longitudinal studies are needed to truly capture the duration and fluctuation of Neuro-PASC over time. These findings have immense public health impact given that Neuro-PASC significantly contributes to the leading global burden of disability and disease caused by neurologic disorders. The impact of this condition causing disproportionate morbidity and disability in younger adults in their prime, who provide much of the workforce, productivity, and innovation in our society, may lead to critical issues of increased health care system burden, mental health crisis, socio-cultural deterioration, and economic recession. Continued identification and risk stratification for factors contributing to the development and severity of PASC is vital to minimizing and improving the disease and disability burden of this condition, which remains a significant global public health threat. Resources and efforts for prevention, detection/diagnosis, treatment/palliation, and rehabilitation should be increasingly focused on groups disproportionately affected by this condition.
Our study also has far-reaching implications for public health. Because younger and middle- age people are the most frequently and severely affected by Neuro-PASC, whether this could potentially translate into a higher or earlier incidence of subsequent cognitive impairment and neurodegenerative diseases in this population is a matter of serious concern for our clinic patients. A study of electronic medical records of 35,362 COVID-19 outpatients in Denmark showed an increased relative risk (RR) of 3.5 for Alzheimer's disease and 2.6 for Parkinson's disease compared to outpatients who did not have COVID-19.36 A meta-analysis of 12 studies including 2.6 million post-COVID-19 cases and 30.4 million controls showed a significant association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and increased risk of new-onset Alzheimer's disease (HR = 1.50), dementia (HR = 1.66), and Parkinson's disease (HR = 1.44) among COVID-19 survivors.37 Potential mechanisms triggering or accelerating neurodegeneration may include persistent inflammation, immune dysregulation, mitochondrial dysfunction, and/or endotheliopathy.38, 39 These mechanisms may be enhanced in younger people who display a more robust inflammatory response unique to COVID-19,40 whereas they may be less prominent in older individuals secondary to immunosenescence.41 However, the full impact of PASC in the development of neurodegenerative diseases may not be known for decades, as the current population of younger and middle-age adults affected by Neuro-PASC reaches old age.42, 43
NNP 18- 44 years NNP 45- 64 years NNP 65+ years TABLE 3B. Neurologic symptoms and signs attributed to PASC in non-hospitalized Neuro-PASC (NNP) patients across the adult lifespan Overall NNP P Blurred vision Ischemic Stroke Seizure Movement disorder Meningitis Encephalitis Focal sensory deficit Focal motor deficit Hemorrhagic stroke Other symptom n (6) Fatigue Shortness of breath Depression/anxiety Insomnia Chest nain Abbreviations: COVID = coronavirus disease; dysf = dysfunction; IQR = interquartile range; Neuro-PASC = neurologic post- acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection; NNP = non-hospitalized neurologic post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection; SD = standard deviation. p values that are statistically significant p < 0.05 are highlighted in bold. 346 (31.5) 15 (1.4) 21 (1.9) 6 (0.5) 0 (0) 1 (0.1) 3 (0.3) 2 (0.2) 1 (0.1) 169 (31.2) 3 (0.6) 12 (2.2) 5 (0.9) 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0) 2 (0.4) 1 (0.2) 151 (33.3) 7 (1.5) 9 (2) 0 (0) 0 (O) 0 (0) 3 (0.7) 0 (0) 0 (0) 26 (24.8) 5 (4.8) 0 (0) 1 (1) 0 (0) 1 (1) 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0) 0.23 0.005 0.37 0.07 N/A 0.1 0.14 0.6 1 963 (87.5) 511 (46.5) 763 (69.4) 627 (57) 334 (30.4) 479 (88.4) 244 (45) 387 (71.4) 299 (55.2) 181 (33.4) 388 (85.7) 221 (48.8) 318 (70.2) 275 (60.7) 133 (29.4) 96 (91.4) 46 (43.8) 58 (55.2) 53 (50.5) 20 (19) 0.19 0.42 0.004 0.08 0.01
TABLE 3A. Neurologic symptoms and signs attributed to PASC in post-hospitalization Neuro- PASC (PNP) patients across the adult lifespan Overall PNP PNP 18- 44 years PNP 45-64 years PNP 65+ years P manifestations (median [IQR]) Neurologic symptoms n (6) 24 Brain fog 0.06 0.49 Headache 32 (80) 60 (58.5) 21 (36.2) <0.0001 Numbness/tingling 23 (57.5) 63 (61.8) 27 (46.6) 0.18 Dizziness 25 (62.5) 60 (58.8) 26 (44.8) 0.14 Myalgia Pain other than chest Dysgeusia Anosmia Tinnitus 138 (69) 173 (86.5) 113 (56.5) 113 (56.5) 111 (55.5) 106 (53) 93 (46.5) 87 (43.5) 84 (42) 67 (33.5) 30 (75) 34 (85) 75 (73.5) 91 (89.2) 33 (56.9) 48 (82.8) 27 (67.5) 19 (47.5) 21 (52.5) 18 (45) 15 (37.5) 54 (52.9) 53 (52) 45 (44.1) 44 (43.1) 38 (37.3) 25 (43.1) 21 (36.2) 21 (36.2) 22 (37.9) 14 (24.1) 0.06 0.16 0.27 0.75 0.2
Objective To investigate neurologic manifestations of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (Neuro-PASC) in post-hospitalization Neuro-PASC (PNP) and non-hospitalized Neuro-PASC (NNP) patients across the adult lifespan. Methods Cross-sectional study of the first consecutive 200 PNP and 1,100 NNP patients evaluated at a Neuro-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) clinic between May 2020 and March 2023. Patients were divided into younger (18-44 years), middle-age (45-64 years), and older (65+ years) age groups. Results Younger and middle-age individuals accounted for 142 of 200 (71%) of PNP and 995 of 1100 (90.5%) of NNP patients. Significant age-related differences in the frequencies of comorbidities and abnormal neurologic findings demonstrated higher prevalence in older patients. Conversely, 10 months from COVID-19 onset, we found significant age-related differences in Neuro-PASC symptoms indicating lower prevalence, and therefore, symptom burden, in older individuals. Moreover, there were significant age-related differences in subjective impression of fatigue (median [interquartile range (IQR)] patient-reported outcomes measurement information system [PROMIS] score: younger 64 [57-69], middle- age 63 [57-68], older 60.5 [50.8-68.3]; p = 0.04) and sleep disturbance (median [IQR] PROMIS score: younger 57 [51-63], middle-age 56 [53-63], older 54 [46.8-58]; p = 0.002) in the NNP group, commensurate with higher impairment in quality of life (QoL) among younger patients. Finally, there were significant age-related differences in objective executive function (median [IQR] National Institutes of Health [NIH] toolbox score: younger 48 [35-63], middle-age 49 [38-63], older 54.5 [45-66.3]; p = 0.01), and working memory (median [IQR] NIH toolbox score: younger 47 [40-53], middle-age 50 [44-57], older 48 [43- 58]; p = 0.0002) in NNP patients, with the worst performance coming from the younger group.
35-49 50-64 65 and older 10 г 8.9 8 1.27.6 1.26 9 14.1 Percent 6 Chris Turnbull @EnemyInAState New Study shows that young people have nearly DOUBLE the risk of getting horrendously disabling Long Covid vs older people Nearly 1 in 20 young people have LC - younger much more likely to get LC Covid is mild in the young? Covid is LIFE DESTROYING IN THE YOUNG .. Figure 2. Percentage of adults who ever had Long COVID or currently have Long COVID, by age group: United States, 2022 18-34 YOUNGEST 4.7 4 OLDEST 1-33.8 12.7 12.3 2 ALT Ever Long COVID Current Long COVID 11:34 pm . 16 Nov 2023 . 40.1K Views
WILEY "Online Library Annals of Neurology / Early View aOpen Access Neurologic Manifestations of Long COVID Disproportionately Affect Young and Middle-Age Adults Natasha A. Choudhury MD, Shreya Mukherjee BA, Tracey Singer BS, Aditi Venkatesh BS, Gina S. Perez Giraldo MD, Millenia Jimenez BS, Janet Miller BS, Melissa Lopez MPH ... See all authors v First published: 22 November 2024 https://doi.org/10.1002/ana.27128 About Sections Research Article cc Abstract Objective To investigate neurologic manifestations of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (Neuro-PASC) in post-hospitalization Neuro-PASC (PNP) and non-hospitalized Neuro-PASC (NNP) patients across the adult lifespan. Methods Cross-sectional study of the first consecutive 200 PNP and 1,100 NNP patients evaluated at a Neuro-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) clinic between May 2020 and March 2023. Patients were divided into younger (18-44 years), middle-age (45-64 years), and older (65+ years) age groups. Results
Global Center for Health Security N UNMC disturbances, sometimes leaving people unable to work or even function independently. The SARS-CoV-2 virus is new, but postviral syndromes are not. Research on other viruses, and on neurological damage from the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in particular, is guiding work on long COVID. And the recognition that the syndrome may cause its many effects through the brain and the nervous system is beginning to shape Q
Dr. Lucky Tran @luckytran Trump's picks to lead US health agencies: HHS - Robert F. Kennedy Jr. NIH - Jay Bhattacharya CMS - Mehmet Oz CDC - Joseph Ladapo (TBC) FDA - Marty Makary (TBC) Surgeon General - Casey Means/Vinay Prasad (TBC) 9:34 pm . 19 Nov 2024 . 413.1K Views t7 312 107 599 209