Chris Meder

@evcurvefuturist.com

8970 Followers 126 Following

Futurist | Exponentialist | Humanist Electrification → #Bettrification Software → Automation → Intelligence Solar • Wind • Batteries • EVs • BESS • AI • BIO

Infographic titled "Nuclear Hopium: It's Not About Engineering. It's About Economics." comparing the economics of nuclear power with solar, wind and battery storage. The left panel lists common "nuclear hopium" beliefs, including that economics no longer matter, investors will fund 10–20 year projects despite falling renewable and battery costs, batteries will stop getting cheaper, and electricity markets will resemble today's. It concludes that the engineering challenge was solved decades ago and the remaining challenge is financial. The central panel compares new capacity added globally from 2014–2023, stating solar added about 2,670 GW versus 40 GW for nuclear. After accounting for average capacity factors (around 20% for solar and 85–90% for nuclear), it claims solar still delivered roughly 16× more average power output, or about 1,470% more. The lower sections explain that wind also added comparable average power after capacity adjustments, while batteries increase the value of renewable generation by shifting energy, reducing curtailment and replacing gas peakers. A "bigger picture" section highlights rapid growth in solar, wind and battery manufacturing, contrasted with rising costs and longer construction times for many new nuclear projects. The footer argues that energy investment decisions are ultimately driven by financial returns rather than engineering capability, contrasting the question "Can we build it?" with "Should we build it?" The graphic features solar panels, wind turbines and battery storage containers in the background, with EV Curve Futurist branding in the top-right corner.
Kenya is another interesting energy transition story. Not because it followed western pathway, because it largely skipped it. Most industrial economies evolved through: Coal → Oil → Gas → Renewables Kenya evolved through: Hydro → Geothermal → Wind → Distributed Solar That difference matters. While many developing economies locked themselves into imported fossil fuels, Kenya steadily built one of Africa’s cleanest electricity systems around domestic renewables, particularly geothermal from the Great Rift Valley. By 2025: • Geothermal ~39% • Hydro ~33% • Wind ~13% • Solar ~3% • Fossil generation ~10% • Renewables ~90% And this transition wasn’t primarily driven by ideology. It was driven by economics, energy security and system resilience. Imported diesel was expensive. Fuel volatility hurt the economy. Geothermal was domestic. Wind and solar kept getting cheaper. So the system flipped. Fossil generation steadily got squeezed while renewables became the backbone. What makes Kenya especially interesting is that it may represent an early prototype for future African energy systems: • Renewable-heavy • Decentralised • Modular • Less dependent on massive fossil infrastructure • Increasingly integrating distributed solar + storage In many rural regions, rooftop solar and mini-grids are scaling faster than traditional centralized expansion ever could. And that may be one of the biggest underappreciated global stories right now: Developing economies may no longer follow the historical western industrial pathway. Cheap renewables, batteries and decentralised systems are starting to change the sequence itself. Kenya is one of the clearest real-world examples of that shift becoming visible.