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Screenshot of the beginning of the linked article
Screenshot from the Evolving Hockey GAR projections page. Top players shown: Nathan MacKinnon Connor McDavid Quinn Hughes Nikita Kucherov Jason Robertson
EH Past Games Page showing the last game of the 25-26 season: CAR at VGK, 2026-06-14 rolling win probability. CAR goes up 1-0 early, has a sizable win probability advantage, and wins 3-0
EH Game Prediction: VGK 35.8% - 64.2% CAR CAR with the strongest forward and defensemen groups. Carter Hart in net for VGK, Frederik Andersen in net for CAR
Screenshot from the linked article. Carolina Hurricanes (M1) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (P1) 77.4% | 22.6% Simulation shows Carolina winning in five games, although six and seven games are not the far off. The only player for Carolina below average is Frederik Andersen. Vegas has five players below average, although their high-end skaters are arguably better than the Canes.
Shot location chart from Evolving Hockey for the same game. Large number of shot attempts (with larger polygons) shown close to the net.
Screenshot of the cumulative xG totals chart from Evolving Hockey from CAR / MTL through three periods, 2026-05-25. CAR: 5.22 - MTL: 1.93 (all situations) Score: 2-2 Carolina with numerous spikes, Montreal small gradual increase over 60 minutes.
CAR / MTL 77.4 % - 22.6% Carolina most likely in 5 games. Full roster for both teams listed. Carolina has the significantly stronger roster with only Frederik Andersen graded below average.
EH Win Probability Chart: BUF 8 - 3 MTL, 2026-05-16... MTL goes up 3-1 at the end of the first period and then gives up 7 consecutive goals (several empty netters)
Screenshot of the Evolving Hockey Contract Projection page/table. Top five players listed: Connor Bedard Jason Robertson Artemi Panarin Leo Carlsson Adam Fantilli
Screenshot from the linked article above. Buffalo Sabres (A1) vs. Montreal Canadiens (A3) 47.3% - 52.7% Both rosters are quite similar. Buffalo has potentially a bit more "high-end" talent among their skaters, but Montreal top-4 are better. Dobes (MTL) grades out (84.8) above Lyon (63.6) in net. This is an extremely close projection for this series, with Buffalo actually slightly favored in a game-7 situation (likely due to home-ice advantage).
Screenshot of the linked article preview visualization for Vegas vs. Anaheim. 62.9% - 37.1 The article better explains the rosters listed here.
Screenshot of the cumulative xG chart from Evolving Hockey Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche, 2026-05-03 Score: MIN 2 - COL 3 xGF (All sit): MIN 0.81 - COL 1.43
Cumulative xG chart from Evolving Hockey Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning, 2026-05-03 xGF (all sit): MTL 1.03 | T.B 2.45 Low event affair overall, very few high event xG values here.
Screenshot from the article linked: Colorado Avalanche (C1) vs. Minnesota Wild (C3) 85.7% - 14.3% All players for Colorado save Nicholas Roy above average, all blue. Minnesota has a strong top-end, but 5 of their players below to well-below average. Rest of the lineup hovering around 60-70 in our ratings. Colorado in 5 most likely outcome.
Screenshot of the series visualizations from the linked article. Carolina Hurricanes vs. Philadelphia Flyers 86.9% / 13.1% Carolina's roster includes only above average players except ofr Frederik Andersen. The Flyers roster is somewhat deep with above-average players, but multiple players are below average, and the Hurricanes have ~9 players better than anyone on the Flyers (per our models).
EH Team Std Table (EV), 25-26 Playoffs through 2026-04-30: Table showing COL (+2.13) and MIN (+2.03) as the highest EV goal differential teams per 60
EH Game Shot Chart (EV, Adj): EDM at ANA, 2026-04-30. NHL Rink with diamonds of various colors (shot type) and sizes (xG value of shot). EDM 3.27 - 2.40 ANA in xGF
Screenshot from Evolving Hockey for the UTA / VGK 2025-04-29 game showing the cumulative xG. UTA: 3.83, VGK: 2.62 More or less even through the first two periods. UTA took the xG lead after that.
Screenshot of EH team standard data sum table for the 25-26 playoffs
VGK 49.5% UTA 50.5%
BUF 63.7% BOS 36.3%
Table showing the top-20 Hart Leaders for the '25-26 season. There is a lot of data here that is not convenient to, unfortunately, share. Players: Connor McDavid Cole Caufield Nathan MacKinnon Moitz Seider Lane Hutson Zach Werenski Nikita Kucherov Quinn Hughes Mark Stone Jake Sanderson Leon Draisaitl Macklin Celebrini Brandon Hagel Evan Bouchard Martin Necas Nick Suzuki Alex Debrincat Mark Scheifele Tyler Bertuzzi
EH Team Point Projections chart (by division). Teams still with a chance: PHI - 52.9% CBJ - 32.2% WSH - 9.6% NSH - 27.6% L.A - 77.1%
Screenshot of the big board presented in the linked article. Cap hit range is league minimum to $8M (John Carlson), all metrics are positive except the last three players in points. Top 20 players shown: Charlie Coyle Dylan Holloway John Carlson Michael Bunting Nick Blankenburg Jason Dickinson Ilya Mikheyev Trevor Zegras Bobby McMann Matias Maccelli Nicholas Robertson Cole Perfetti Nick Foligno Bobby Brink Philipp Kurashev Mackie Samoskevich Mathieu Joseph Pavol Regenda Shakir Mukhamadullin Justin Barron
S.J @ COL, 2025-11-16 - S.J 18.5% - 81.5% COL. Almost mirror reverse images of underlying shot metrics
Screenshot of the Under/Over performing fantasy projections page on Evolving Hockey. Top 5 skaters shown: Leo Carlsson Cutter Gauthier Macklin Celebrini Connor Bedard Marcus Johansson
RAPM chart from Evolving Hockey for Connor McDavid, '25-26. EV xGA/60 and CA/60 are both over 2 standard deviations above the positional mean. All powerplay components are well-above average.
EH Win Probability Chart: MTL at EDM - Oilers gave up 4 unanswered goals before eventually coming back to win 6-5
EH Standard Team Tables Page - team stats at 5v5 (score & venue adjusted) Ducks leading in CF% (2 games played, 61.31%)
EH Win Probability Chart: CGY at EDM EDM went up 3-0 at the middle of the 2nd period, CGY scores 3 unanswered goals to tie and then wins in the shootout
EH Standard Team Tables Page after 2025-10-07 games
EH Game Projections, 2025-10-07: CHI at FLA: 41.7% - 58.3% PIT at NYR: 42.5% - 57.5% COL at L.A: 52.9% - 47.1%
Screenshot of the Evolving Hockey team point projections table. I'm going to attempt to copy all of the information below: Metropolitan Rank Team Points Playoff% 1 SD± 1 Hurricanes 107.2 98.0 8.1 2 Capitals 94.0 67.1 8.4 3 Devils 93.5 66.2 8.4 4 Rangers 89.6 47.1 8.4 5 Blue Jackets 85.8 30.2 8.4 6 Islanders 84.6 24.9 8.4 7 Penguins 81.3 13.8 8.4 8 Flyers 78.7 8.6 8.4 Central Rank Team Points Playoff% 1 SD± 1 Avalanche 111.2 99.4 8.0 2 Stars 102.3 93.8 8.3 3 Mammoth 94.2 71.5 8.3 4 Jets 91.4 58.3 8.4 5 Blues 87.7 41.4 8.4 6 Wild 87.0 38.6 8.4 7 Predators 78.6 9.7 8.4 8 Blackhawks 73.1 3.0 8.3 Atlantic Rank Team Points Playoff% 1 SD± 1 Lightning 105.1 95.6 8.2 2 Sabres 98.8 84.5 8.3 3 Senators 96.4 75.4 8.4 4 Panthers 93.6 64.7 8.3 5 Maple Leafs 91.3 51.8 8.4 6 Canadiens 88.1 38.1 8.4 7 Red Wings 82.8 17.7 8.4 8 Bruins 82.1 16.3 8.4 Pacific Rank Team Points Playoff% 1 SD± 1 Oilers 110.3 99.3 8.0 2 Golden Knights 101.1 90.7 8.2 3 Kings 99.6 88.2 8.3 4 Canucks 91.0 55.1 8.3 5 Flames 83.9 23.6 8.4 6 Kraken 82.9 20.0 8.4 7 Ducks 76.0 5.4 8.4 8 Sharks 72.1 1.9 8.3
Shot chart for the St. Louis Blues - Dallas Stars 2025-09-20 preseason game. STL: 0.68xG, DAL: 0.68xG
Screenshot of the Fantasy Projections page from Evolving Hockey. Various filter and weight options are displayed at the top, and the top five players in the table based on the default weights for a points league appear below: Nathan MacKinnon David Pastrnak Nikita Kucherov Connor McDavid Leon Draisaitl
Chart: Contracts Signed in May & June: Per Year Data: Evolving Hockey & CapFriendly Plot is a line graph with points at each year, which are shaded based on the number of contracts signed for the given year, showing the change in average cap hit of contracts signed during May & June from 2007-2025. X-axis shows years from 2007-2025, y-axis shows the average cap hit.
Screenshot of the Player Projections table from Evolving Hockey. Multiple filter options are shown at the top, and the top five players in the table are listed: Connor McDavid: 19.3 David Pastrnak: 17.2 Nathan MacKinnon: 15.7 Quinn Hughes: 15.1 Leon Draisaitl: 14.4
EH Shot Chart - EDM at FLA, 2025-06-17: EDM 1.59 - 2.99 FLA (xGF). NHL rink showing diamonds for shots with the size corresponding to the xG value of each shot. Florida heavily dominated
EH Game Projection for Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals: FLA 47.6% - 52.4% EDM
EH Win Probability Chart - 2025-06-04, FLA at EDM EDM wins 4-3 in OT after coming back from a 1-3 deficit early in the 2nd period.
Edmonton Oilers 52.9% Florida Panthers 47.1%
EH Rolling Win Probability Chart: FLA 5 - 3 CAR. CAR started out hot and then gave up 3 unanswered goals... They tied it to bring it back to basically 50/50 and then lost it
CAR (M2) vs. FLA (A3) 57.2% - 42.8% Carolina most likely in six games, but it's very even.
EH Rolling Cumulative Corsi Chart (All Sit, No Adj): DAL 46 - 52.8 WPG. Rather low event game where WPG took advantage on the powerplay.
EH Game Prediction Chart - DAL 50.5% - 49.5%
A portion of the Evan Bouchard contract plot from the site. 8yr x $10.6M, 53.9% likelihood. Status: RFA, Age: 25, Position: D, Shoots: R, Signing with: Edmonton.
EH Game Projection: FLA 55.7% at 44.3% TOR FLA with the stronger skaters and Bobrovsky and in net TOR with much weaker skaters and Stolarz in net
TOR (A1) / FLA (A3) 33.3 % - 66.6% FLA in six most likely outcome
EH Rolling Win Probability Chart: STL 3 - 4 WPG WPG down below 20% for most of the game, dropping to 0.8% right before their 2nd goal. They tie it and it stays even through OT until WPG score in 2OT.
Win probability chart for Colorado / Dallas (game 7, 2025-05-03). Colorad held an ~75% chance or greater until the last 10 minutes of the 3rd period. The chart reflects this drastic change in win probability after Dallas' three goals.
EH Game Projection: WPG 56.3% at 43.7% STL Hellebuyck and Binnington in net
EH Series Projections CAR 84.9% - 15.1% J.J Carolina most likely winning in 5 games
EH Rolling Win % Chart - L.A at EDM: Rolling line graph showing EDM leading until the 2nd when L.A scored 3 unanswered goals... and then EDM score 4 goals in the last 10 minutes to win 7-4.
EH Cumulative Corsi Chart (EV, Adj): CAR 82.4 - 78.5 N.J Line chart showing CAR and N.J's cumulative rolling corsi counts - CAR led most of the game and N.J started to catch up in the OTs
EH Game Projections: FLA 48.6% - 51.4% T.B TOR 48.1% - 51.9% OTT VGK 54.5% - 45.5% MIN WPG 52.5% - 47.5% STL
Winnipeg Jets (C1) vs. St. Louis Blues (WC2) 69.6% 30.4%
Toronto Maple Leafs (A1) vs. Ottawa Senators (WC1) 53.8% 46.2%
EH Team Point Projections Chart (all teams sorted by projected points and displayed with Playoff% and SD+/-).