David Gampe

@gampedavid.bsky.social

2966 Followers 1205 Following

#geographer, #climate and #ecosystem scientist and post-doc at #LMU Munich (Climate change, droughts and other extremes, climate-biosphere interactions, ecosystem modeling) | born at 350 ppm | feminist & naive dad | board game aficionado | Views are my own

Colored line-plots showing the summer temperatures (May-September) from 1850-2100 for the UK (A) and the corresponding heat-related mortality (B) for the CanESM5 large ensemble (DAMIP archive). Colors refer to the applied factual (All, green) and counterfactual (Natural forcings only, blue; anthropogenic greenhouse gases only, red; and anthropogenic aerosols only, purple) forcings. Future projections are based on the SSP-245 pathway. Solid lines represent the mean of the large ensemble, i.e., the forced response. Shading in both panels refer to the 95% empirical confidence interval representing both, the uncertainties of the health risk function and natural climate variability (assessed as spread over the 10 members of the SMILE). See https://tinyurl.com/yzpy8v55 for details.