Grid Status

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Datacenter-driven load growth has been top of mind for the last two years, but the most rapid expansion in demand over the last decade has been in ERCOT's Far West Weather Zone. This quadrupling of demand started well before the AI-driven datacenter bonanza, and also predates Texas' spurt of crypto-mining load growth. Instead, it has been anchored in the latest expression of a traditional Texas industry: oil and gas. Anyone who's sited a battery project in West Texas can tell you about the criss-crossing mess of wires as you attempt to nail down a particular line, tap, and voltage while dodging or dealing with the extensive land holdings of a handful of powerful entities that aren't particularly interested in someone else's infrastructure. Conversely, efforts to expand cheaper and more reliable electric power across basin operations have been welcomed with open arms. Three other tidbits to call out: Demand is almost completely flat hour-over-hour, which speaks to the predominance of industrial load across all seasons as opposed to the typical rise and fall of areas with higher populations. Starting in 2024, a mid-day bump appears as battery capacity expanded across the region. This has completely disappeared since the implementation of RTC+B, as wholesale storage load is no longer included in real-time load reporting from ERCOT. Summer months, where AC load was able to produce a small evening peak, shifted to a morning peak from the battery demand. This should shift back in 2026 with the aforementioned RTC+B change.
Load northeast of Denver, particularly around Reunion, served by United Power Inc., a local co-op, saw persistently higher prices across the entire day-ahead clear. Conversely, locations south of Denver, away from load, had lower prices. In the midday, Pueblo Hydro was among the lowest priced locations, while in the morning, Colorado Highlands Wind, even further from load in northeastern Colorado, saw the lowest prices. In the evening, it was another hydro facility south of Denver that had the lowest price, but this time, northwest of Colorado Springs. The 28 MW Tesla (no relation) hydroelectric plant is on the grounds of the US Air Force Academy. This resource is non-dispatchable, but still considered by SPP in modeling the grid.
day-ahead prices for power markets in the US and Canada
Similar to nearby New England, NYISO’s heating is dominated by oil and natural gas . While pipeline limitations are not as big of a concern as in ISO-NE, extended cold snaps and high demand in zones J and K can drive up spot pricing.  
The vast majority of heating in ISO-NE is fossil, split between heating oil and natural gas . The reliance on natural gas, particularly in densely populated areas in Eastern MA, along the Connecticut River, and in the NYC suburbs, place added strain on pipeline supply during cold weather events.
Primary home heating fuel source varies across US regions This is mostly driven by climate, historical prices, and year of industrialization/electrification.
quebec flipping from a new exporter to importer with nyiso over the last 7 years
load forecast error in PJM around Halloween
timeline of events in the western interconnection
CAISO, SPP, and AESO and their new market timelines
large load demand growth for dominion, aep, ppl, comed, and dayton in PJM, from 2025 thorough 2035, bar chart
Video of using the nodal analysis app
chart showing load with and without battery charging in CAISO
chart of net load in spp on september 6th and 16th, much bigger swings on the 16th
In the first half of 2025 Traditional Data Centers load grew by about 5% Most of this was observed from April 1 to May 10. (3.9%) Current installed capacity = 6,400MW Approved to Energize (LLI) + Operational (non-LLI)
On key summer days in 2025, crypto curtailment in ERCOT has met or exceeded the entire day-ahead load forecast error From January through July, crypto mining in ERCOT grew by ~200 MW on net to ~4 GW, far lower than assumed by forecasts prior to 2025, but more than enough to drastically reshape peak load curves during the 4CP season. graph showing this
nodal price map on gridstatus.io
congestion rent attributable to TSAs over the last 11 years
timeline of the 1977 blackout
nodal price map showing the mid-atlantic of PJM
chart of load and load forecast in bge, load might only top out at like 5k MW
Msg ID: 104779 Message Type: Load Shed DirectivePAI Trigger Priority: Action Effective Start Time: 08.11.2025 15:52 Regions BGE A Load Shed Directive has been issued to mitigate an N-5 cascade analysis at 115kv Chestnut -Fredrick Rd 110-528-A in BGE . Additional Comments: Load shed directive to maintain post contingency flow below 115% of load dump rating.
bar charts with load forecasts and demand records across markets
HH and LNG prices over time
PPL demand, demand + Google and Amazon, capacity deficit
capacity factors for holtwood, safe harbor, and susquehanna
bar chart showing what the post says
PJM’s 2026/27 BRA cleared at the market cap across the entire RTO, signaling no end to Big Tech’s insatiable demand for datacenter power
These deals come at an already challenging time for PJM. While PPL cleared ~8.6 GW in the recent 2025/2026 Base Residual Auction (BRA) and only hit a peak load of 7.6 GW during late June’s record-breaking heat wave, these PPAs tie into existing generation, exacerbating PJM’s growing supply imbalance and cutting into supply. Many saw the 25/26 BRA as a flashing alarm that the balance between supply and demand was tightening fast. PJM has faced tens of GWs in generation retirements while load growth, driven by data centers in Dominion, has taken off. Capacity prices hit record highs, driving double-digit rate hikes and even prompting some states to threaten to leave PJM entirely. At the same time, generation buildouts have lagged. The RTO’s now-infamous interconnection freeze slowed generation additions, and the bulk of new capacity has been intermittent renewables without storage. Queue reforms are expected to accelerate new additions relative to the status quo, but starting from a low point means there is a long way to go. While all three plants may rely on the Susquehanna River, their real-time basis exposure has diverged sharply in recent years. Unlike new plants relying on modeling to provide benchmarks, these facilities have decades of operation to inform the contours of a PPA. As tech companies ramp up power consumption, they have become savvy buyers, likely factoring in basis hedges while at the same time paying a premium for firm, clean power when it is increasingly hard to come by.
During the June heatwave, behind-the-meter solar in New England shifted peak demand by 2 hours and nearly 3 GW. Without BTM solar, ISO-NE may have broken its nearly 20 year-old demand record, challenging assumptions about load growth in the region. Stephen King’s foreboding New England is not the first place you’d think of as a leader in solar generation, but the region’s heavy concentration of behind the meter (BTM) solar was able to meet nearly 6 GW of load over the afternoon of June 24th while utility scale solar produced only 750 MW. Even during the shifted evening peak, BTM is estimated to have reduced hourly load by over 800 MW. BTM helped keep prices under control during solar hours, shifting volatility to the evening net load peak when expensive oil generators ramped up to meet ~3.5 GW of load. While BTM solar had a notable impact during the heatwave, it was nowhere to be found during this year’s winter peak. On January 21st, load peaked after sunset, meaning BTM systems were unable to offset demand. The lack of BTM generation coincides with operational challenges from pipeline constraints during the winter as gas is utilized for direct heating. ISO-NE is currently a summer peaking region, but heating and transportation electrification is expected to shift the peak to winter in the 2030s. The adoption of these technologies has been slower than expected, leading to weaker load forecasts in recent years. Despite BTM’s growing role in shaping summer demand, the transition to a winter-peaking region without distributed battery adoption alongside BTM solar presents new challenges. While the heatwave at the end of June certainly drove attention, summer is not over yet, and factoring BTM solar into decision-making is increasingly important. Track this, along with wider grid dynamics, with our live pages for New England and beyond.
wind forecasts and actual in PJM
Tomorrow, Dominion, the epicenter of data center load growth in the US, is forecasted to smash its previous early-June load record by almost 2 GW. Already in 2025, the zone set a new all-time demand record, reaching 24.6 GW on the morning of January 23rd. Now, before even reaching the solstice, demand is projected to surpass the peak of 2022’s entire summer. This continued growth indicates we may be in store for more record demand and volatile congestion in the coming months and lays bare the potential for threats to grid stability like last summer’s near miss. With temperatures expected to surge into the 90s across Virginia, PJM’s latest forecast has Dominion exceeding 21 GW across the midafternoon, peaking over 21.4 GW during HE 18. Dominion’s rapid load growth, fueled by hyperscale data center developments in Northern Virginia, is even clearer during the off-peak. Since 2019, off-peak load has grown by 4 GW, reflecting the 24/7 power needs of most traditional data center operators. Follow the latest forecasts and real-time updates on our PJM live page and stay tuned for more coverage of major summer load events and trends across the US and Canada.