Guy Yeomans

@guyyeomans.bsky.social

1348 Followers 1940 Following

Professional: Foresight & Horizon Scanning | Research: Resilience (CNI / Societal) & Comprehensive Security, Total Defence, National Preparedness | Emerging Risks & CM / EM | Military mobility | High North, GIUK-NGap & Arctic Futures | Personal: #OnXII

Photo taken from the top of the BT Tower looking towards the City of London

Screenshot of a quote taken from an article published by Chatham House, published on June 8th 2026, and titled "Will the UK’s Defence Investment Plan finally be honest about Britain’s defence?". The quote references the Defence Industrial Plan, or DIP, and reads "If it’s honest, the DIP will finally have to make a choice between focusing on capabilities to defend the mainland UK and the Arctic and ‘High North’ or opt for a massive effort to reconstitute its ability to project force around the world – with all the associated costs."

Photo taken in Ladywell Walk in Birmingham, UK. Image shows the Mapstone building in the foreground, with the Radisson Blu hotel tower in the background.

Screenshot taken from an article titled "UK supply chain unprepared for major shocks such as war, report warns" published by The Guardian on Sunday 24th May 2026. The text extract reads "It comes nearly a year on from the publication of the government’s national security strategy, initiatives such as moves to prioritise British suppliers for contracts in sectors vital to national security, and calls by Keir Starmer for a “whole-of-society” approach to security and resilience.

But there are concerns that the issue has lost focus amid other political distractions, while the Commons defence committee reported last November that the “national conversation” sought by the prime minister had yet to start, with little public engagement and no clear central direction."

Machine translated screenshot of part of an article titled "Forberedes på krig: – Hva blir vår rolle?" published by Forsvarets forum on 27th April 2026. The screenshot reads "The new guide will be completed in June 2026, and will be published together with the scenarios for the emergency preparedness exercise "Norway exercises". It is a national preparedness exercise for the municipalities, where they will practice what they do if Norway is hit by war this autumn."

Screenshot of Hammerfest harbour, Norway. The ships Seapeak Meridian, Kystvakt W324 and Polarlys can be seen.

Photo taken at the Resilience First Spring Reception held at the British Academy, London on Thursday 30th April 2026. Image shows keynote speaker Elisabeth Braw.

Quote from an article titled 'Ready Or Not, We Fight' published by Minna Ålander on 24th April 2026. The text reads "The Nordic countries have hitherto prepared to hold the line until allied (i.e. American) reinforcements arrive. But now it looks increasingly evident that Europeans are on their own and no such reinforcements will arrive from North America, apart from whatever Canada can contribute."

Screenshot of a text extract from an article titled 'Risk management must evolve to remain fit for purpose' published in the Financial Times on 29th April 2026. The extract reads "Greater emphasis must be placed on the ability of institutions to withstand extreme shocks, the robustness of their crisis management frameworks and the effectiveness of their contingency planning."

Screenshot of text from an article titled 'Defence dithering is harming the UK' by Camilla Cavendish, published by the Financial Times on Saturday 18th April 2026. The text reads: "In the north Atlantic, the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap, patrolled by Iceland, Denmark, Norway and the UK, remains critical to protecting America’s eastern seaboard from Russian submarines."

Screenshot of a webpage providing details of the 'Connecting for continuity: Strengthening UK resilience' event hosted by PwC in London on Tuesday 14th April 2026.

Screenshot of an extract from the House of Commons Defence Committee report titled "The UK contribution to European Security: Government Response" published in January 2026. The extract, taken from page 22, reads "We welcome the proposal of a Defence Readiness Bill. However, the Government has not yet determined what specific measures it wishes to include in the Bill, let alone written it. This should be agreed within Government and legislation published as soon as possible. (Recommendation, Paragraph 127)"

Screenshot taken from the 4th Report – The National Security Strategy published by the National Security Strategy Joint Committee on 27th March 2026. The extract title is "Changing security dynamics in the Arctic and need for greater UK attention" and the text reads "It was stated that Russia has significant interests in the Arctic, despite
frailties that Operation Spiderweb exposed in the Russian ‘Bastion’. Despite its important status in polar science, the UK was seen by some experts as not sufficiently serious in considering its Arctic interests and assets when regional stability is under challenge. There were calls for greater UK focus on Norway, as well as awareness of future challenges to both Iceland and Greenland. Svalbard and the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap were flagged as possible flashpoints in future."

Photo of the side of the Lloyds Building in The City, London, England.

Photo taken at the launch event of the Resilience Imperative campaign in London on 24th March 2026. Photo shows rows of seated people in front of a presentation screen & a standing presenter. The presenter was Lady Olga Maitland.

Screenshot of an extract from a written answer to a UK Parliament question tabled on 11 July 2025 (UIN 67219). The answer was provided by Ms Abena Oppong-Asare (Labout) and the extract reads: "The UK Government Resilience Action Plan is underpinned by well-established Cabinet Office governance structures, including the National Security Council (Resilience), which oversee the implementation and delivery of resilience matters across UK government."

Photo of the Voyage sculpture in Hull with The Deep aquarium in the background.

Photo of the City of London taken from Lothbury / Prince's Street and showing Wheeler's golden statue of Ariel (spirit of the air) atop the Bank of England in the foreground

Photo from inside the Espresso House cafe on Kaivokatu in Helsinki, Finland looking across to the Central Station

Photo showing the interior of Bar Sotima within the Varusteleka shop in Helsinki, Finland.

Photo taken from the 50th floor viewing gallery at The Lookout, London, EC2N 4BQ. The photo is looking south-east, showing Tower Bridge and HMS Belfast. Taken at night so internal reflections are overlaid on the image.

Photo of Western Approaches HQ in-house specialist Lauren giving a talk on 'WRNS & WATU'. The contribution of the Women's Royal Naval Service (the Wrens) was instrumental to the Command's success.

A photo of the wall map in the Western Approaches HQ museum, Liverpool, L2 8SZ. The close up shows the plot of convoy ONS.5 (Outbound to North America, Slow - April 1943), which traversed Icelandic & Greenlandic waters.

Photo of the Operations Room at the Western Approaches HQ museum in Liverpool, L2 8SZ. The image shows the large, floor-to-ceiling map of the Atlantic Ocean, with the monitoring desks in front.

Dawn photo of Three Smiths Square in Helsinki, showing the Kolmen sepän patsas statue, with the Stockmann department store behind it. Taken at the end of November 2024.

A graphic with the Finnish phrase "Kriisinsietokykyämme tullaan entisestään vahvistamaan"

Screenshot of a Google Trends results page for the search term "GIUK Gap"

Screenshot of the Helsinki Service Map online tool, showing the city's civil defence sections.

Screenshot of two linked Twitter posts, with each displaying a confirmation message of achieving a walking target of 1000 miles in a year. These represent 2022-2023 and 2023-2024.

Screenshot of an OpenSreetMap record of a walk I made in Stockholm which covered Djurgården and the city centre. The distance was 13.83 miles.

Screenshot of an OpenSreetMap record of a walk I made in Helsinki which covered the southern half of the Innerstadens strandstråk / Inner city waterfront trail. The distance was 11.57 miles.

Photo of holding a mobile phone and looking at the display which shows a confirmation message that achieving a total of walking 1000 miles in a year has been met successfully.

Screenshot of a comment made in an article titled "Striking back through the fog: A more muscular approach to sub-threshold threats" published by the Council on Geostrategy on 6th August 2025. The extract reads "The 2025 Resilience Action Plan goes some way to addressing these faults, but more should be done. Significant investment should be placed in shoring up the UK’s resilience, perhaps most especially the public understanding of the risk and information sharing on how to act in, and react to, crises."

Photo of five books stacked on top of each other on a table. The books, in top to bottom order, are 1) Nuclear War by Annie Jacobsen 2) Come What May by Lucy Easthope 3) War in the Smartphone Age by Matthew Ford 4) How to Survive a Crisis by David Omand and 5) Norway's War by Robert Ferguson

Screenshot from an article titled "World War III is on our doorstep – Ukraine is already inside" published by Ukrainska Pravda on 14th July 2025. The extract reads "The Azov model is an asymmetric institution that operates within the framework of the regular army while retaining the flexibility unique to network-based structures. This is where its strategic value lies. When it comes to the armies of the future, environments like this will form their core. Not corps built according to the NATO handbook, but units capable of responding rapidly, of adapting, of acting autonomously and without interruption even when completely cut off from the main forces. This is where the example of Azov becomes critically important. Amid the chaos, Azov did not merely survive – it built its own adaptive architecture of warfare."

Screenshot taken from an article titled "Home Affairs is central to Australia’s security, safety and economic prosperity" published by The Australian Strategic Policy Institute on 18th July 2025. The extract text is "National security and national safety are not the same. Security is about shielding sovereignty, institutions and strategic interests from hostile threats. Safety is about keeping people, communities and critical infrastructure functioning and protected, regardless of whether the threat is natural, accidental or deliberate. If national security is about stopping the bomb, national safety is about ensuring the fallout doesn’t cripple our ability to recover."

Screenshot taken from a UK House of Commons Defence Committee report titled "Defence in the Grey Zone" and published on 9th July 2025. The extract, taken from page 24 reads "Conclusion:
As the recent SDR sets out, homeland resilience will become a significant activity for the MOD in the coming years and will require more cross-Government planning and coordination. The MOD is unlikely to lead many of these work streams. However, even with limited resources, it can proactively make an immediate impact by engaging with wider Government, society and industry; by sharing its expertise on grey zone threats; and by applying its planning and leadership skills to help build greater consensus on the challenges and enhance long-term resilience. Further, a dedicated Homeland Security Minister would be more likely to drive through the urgent changes required to improve the UK’s current levels of preparedness and resilience."

Screenshot of an extract from a Financial Times article titled "UK defence funding will hit 5% of GDP by 2035, Starmer to tell Nato summit" published on 23rd June 2025. The extract reads "The 1.5 per cent of non-core spending has been billed by the government as “homeland security” and “resilience” investment and is expected to cover things such as civil preparedness, cyber threats, border and energy security and other areas with defence-adjacent purposes, with the details to be agreed at the Nato summit."

Screenshot of an extract from an article published by the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (Brussels) titled "Enemy in the Crates: The Risks of Pre-deployed Covert Payloads for European Defence". The text highlighted in the extract reads "Here, an additional emphasis is needed on civil-security-military protocols and standards, as any lapse in civilian procedures can enable the deployment of Pre-deployed Covert Payloads." The article was published on June 18th 2025.

Screenshot from an article titled "Could an alliance of eight small countries turn out to be Europe’s anchor?" published in The Guardian newspaper on 9th June 2025. The extract reads "Both Nato and the EU are drawing extensively on the “total defence” playbook of Finland and Sweden to engage the public and private sectors and civil society in military readiness, civil preparedness and economic resilience in the face of Russian and Chinese hybrid warfare tactics. There is much to learn from their whole-of-society approach."

Photo of participants seated around a table taking part in the National Preparedness Commission (NPC) breakfast discussion on 'Protecting critical services by building preparedness against satellite data disruptions' which took place at One Great George Street, London on Wednesday 4th June 2025.

Screenshot of a BlueSky post discussing the use of the train network in Ukraine to help facilitate the visits of international leaders, diplomats and government representatives and especially the role of Kyiv-Pasazhyrskyi train station.

Photo of the Finnish icebreaker fleet taken in Helsinki at the end of November 2024 taken from across the harbour at Pohjoisranta

Screenshot of an article published in The Guardian newspaper on Friday 28th March 2025 titled "Japan unveils first plan to evacuate 100,000 civilians from islands near Taiwan in event of conflict". The extract text is "Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, said the evacuation plans had been drawn up “on the assumption [Japan will encounter] a situation where armed attacks are predicted”, Kyodo said."

Screenshot from the communique announcing the launch of the EU Preparedness Union strategy on 26th March 2025. The extract text is "Concretely, the Strategy includes 30 key actions and a detailed Action Plan to advance the Preparedness Union's objectives, as well as developing a ‘preparedness by design culture' across all EU policies."

Screenshot of a promotional flyer for the 13th International Railway Summit in Vienna taking place in Vienna on the 3rd-5th June 2025. The extract text is "The strategic importance of rail has been dramatically underscored by recent geopolitical developments. As defence becomes a more prominent consideration in the upcoming MFF due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, rail's direct and multifaceted contributions to military mobility, logistics, and civilian evacuation have become increasingly significant."

Screenshot from a Renew Europe article published on March 25th 2025 titled "Renew Europe MEPS call for EU-wide crisis preparedness guide". The text of the extract is "Renew Europe is calling on the European Commission to incorporate this proposal into its forthcoming communication on the "EU Preparedness Union" and to ensure that all European households receive accessible, practical information on crisis preparedness."

Screenshot from a The Guardian newspaper article titled "Was Heathrow’s response to fire at a substation really the best it could do?" published on Monday 24th March 2025. The excerpt reads "The business accepts that absolute operational, system and infrastructure resilience is impossible,” it starts, adding vaguely that it will work to mitigate impacts “within the risk/return balance set by the company”. In summary: “In the pursuit of its objectives, Heathrow airport is willing to accept, in some circumstances, risks that may result in some financial loss or reputational exposure".

Screenshot from a Financial Times article titled "Why was Heathrow airport slow to resume operations after substation fire?" published on Tuesday 25th March 2025. The excerpt reads "In some ways, this seems to [have been] a process failure,” said David Wallom, professor of informatics at Oxford university. “It seems like Heathrow had never considered the possibility of this scale of failure.”"

Screenshot from a Financial Times article titled "Why was Heathrow airport slow to resume operations after substation fire?" published on Tuesday 25th March 2025. The excerpt reads "Resilience must “strike the right balance between risks and costs”, said Olivier Jankovec, director-general of trade group Airports Council International Europe. “Ensuring minimum disruptions and keeping operations going as much as possible is simply not always possible — especially when faced with rare and extreme events.”"

Screenshot of an extract from an article titled "Civil resistance courses gain popularity in Lithuania amid growing uncertainty" published by Lithuanian Radio and Television (LRT) on March 10th 2025. The extract says "So what to do? Prepare. Soldiers need to arm and train to do their job, civilians too. Each one of us, from the singer to the schoolboy, plays an important role in the life of society, and if we continue to play that role, regardless of our fears, we are creating the very real universal defence that is so talked about now,” it said."

Photo taken at the National Preparedness Commission event titled "Preparing for a growing reliance on digital interdependencies" which took place in London on Wednesday 5th March 2025. Image shows Lord Toby Harris standing on a stage and introducing the event.

Photo taken from London Bridge, London looking east. The picture shows the River Thames, HMS Belfast, Tower Bridge and the buildings of Canary Wharf in the background.