Hen Banowell

@hanowell.me

412 Followers 543 Following

Writing a hybrid memoir + narrative science nonfiction book about the statistical paradox of competing risks and how it applies to my near-death. Posts are my own thoughts. This is a personal account. MEDIO·TUTISSIMUS·IBIS CUSTOS·VIAE·MEDIAE

Cute dogs sleeping
X-ray showing the authors ICD
A pug and a Texas mutt
A page in the poster’s journal where he has written a treatment that envisions his heart and the Cascadia subduction zone as latent timers counting down to deadly events.
A directed acyclic graph that shows how not controlling for other stuff that happened in 2022 leads to biased estimates of how AI impacts occupational employment interacting with time since the magical month of Nov 2022, especially when you can't control for occupation because AI exposure and AI usage measures are invariant across all occupations in all periods.
Photo of hardwood floor showing beneath a carpet that never should have been laid down.
Classic cat in a suit drinking coffee at a table while reading the paper meme with caption above that says "I should read more of Rohrer's papers."
Image of Deep Throat from All the President's Men saying, "These are not very bright guys."
A directed acyclic graph showing how an unmeasured competing mediator of the occupational effect on a labor-market outcome biases the effect of occupational AI exposure.
Picture of a Bay Area garden
Two gorgeous people gettin hitched
Photo on I5 South
A picture of two adorable people who are about to get hitched.
Passage from an article by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkman at https://paulgp.substack.com/p/ai-and-the-research-o-ring that reads: "The evidence for continued and dramatic AI improvement is convincing. The figure above replicates the graph made by the non-profit METR (Model Evaluation & Threat Research), which benchmarks the time that it takes different AI models to do tasks, and the current iteration documents exponential growth in ability to do more complex tasks (“the 50%-time horizon is the duration at which an agent is predicted to succeed half the time.”) Frontier models continue to break through barriers rapidly, especially in code and math."
What goes around, goes around, goes around
Screen shot from the LACE methodology from the Census, page 9
A chart showing that the magical month of Nov 2022 isn't just the time when they released ChatGPT. 1-year real interest rate per FRED.
Chart from Scwarz article in Risk edition of Asterisk magazine claiming incorrectly that overlapping 95 percent bootstrapped CIs indicate changes that are not statistically significant at p < 0.05.
Page from a calendar that shows NYT headlines on the day. This one from an article about how children’s play changes due to increasing vehicular traffic.
Image from an MRI of the author's brain from the side.
From Blade: “They’re everywhere.”