Jeremy Yoder says no war @jbyoder.org · May 27 Chris provided weather data simulated without human-caused climate change, and when we fed that counterfactual weather into the model... it recovered out-of-season blooms in the fourth quarters of 2018 and 2025. Here's just Q4 for each of those years, under factual and counterfactual conditions:
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This actually makes sense. The model found Joshua tree flowering is mostly driven by precipitation—the out-of-season flowering events were in years with unusually wet fourth quarters—but in Joshua tree's range climate change has had a much bigger impact on temperature than on average precipitation.