J.C. Bradbury

@jcbradbury.com

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Economist, Georgian, Gadfly Stadium Subsidies, Film Incentives, Local Economic Development, Sports Economics Tariffs bad. Vaccines good. Conjecture is not evidence. jcbradbury.com Book website: ThisOneWillBeDifferent.com

Bennet Brauer air-quote meme: "Very Real"
The team’s new board of directors, composed of controlling owner Tom Dundon and at least four co-owners, was scheduled to meet Monday afternoon. The official said one “very real” potential outcome of that meeting could be the ownership group resetting the negotiations and starting over, including tossing aside the $365 million commitment the state made earlier this year.
Scene from Rogue One. Are we blind?
Grouped bar chart comparing year-over-year brick-and-mortar card spending growth in World Cup host cities and other U.S. cities before and during the tournament period. Total card spending growth rose from about 1.5% to 2.5% in host cities, while declining from about 2.5% to 1.8% elsewhere. Retail spending excluding restaurants increased slightly in host cities, from 2.0% to 2.3%, but fell elsewhere from about 3.4% to 2.5%. Restaurant spending showed the largest host-city increase, rising from about 3.1% to 6.0%, compared with a small increase from 4.0% to 4.2% in other cities. Data are from Bank of America and compare May 20–June 9 with June 10–30.
Blazers source said the team has been examining other recent arena deals in Oklahoma City and Utah, and may start looking for a new deal in Portland — which might even include asking for a new arena in Portland. “The city’s delay has given us time to study what a market deal is,’’ the Blazers source said. “And let’s just say the $600 million deal that was supposed to be done six months ago was a way-below-market deal.’’
With virtually no publicly disclosed documentation, $600 million is claimed to be necessary for renovating a functional 30-year-old building. By comparison, Tampa Bay Rays Tropicana Field was devastated by a hurricane requiring a new roof, field, and totally renovated interior that was completed for $60 million. Why is 10 times that amount necessary for the Moda Center?
On Thursday, a coalition of local businesses, organized by former Blazers lobbyists, issued a press release calling on city leaders to approve a term sheet and cement the team’s future in Portland.
Barney Fife and Andy Taylor feigning smiles of happiness as they prepare to eat Aunt Bea's kerosene-like pickles.
Sideshow Mel: Oh, no. Here comes the local growth coalition of connected insiders, who want their club seats upgraded!
Of the city’s involvement in the deal, Tampa City Council chairperson Alan Clendenin said, “If you can’t go through, you go around.” “If the city is not going to be cooperative and be able to reach this deal, they’re going to look at other opportunities,” he said of the baseball team. “And unfortunately, there’ll be a cost of the city not having participated in the process.” Hagan criticized the resistance from some city leaders given the size of Tampa’s proposed contribution compared with the county’s. “When you look at the project itself, the return on investment is incredible, and that’s what’s so frustrating when people are so shortsighted and can’t see the big picture,” he said. Still, Hagan said, he is confident that a deal will move forward with or without the city.
Still, hotel occupancy during this period was down by 4% from this time last year. Part of this was because of the expectation that the matches would bring wall-to-wall crowds, Pate said, deterring usual summer travelers from passing through the city. However, the revenue hoteliers received per available room was up by 11% from this time last year. “Even though we’ve booked fewer rooms (than) in a typical summer, the revenue has been much higher,” Pate said. “So that’s been good; that’s obviously been very beneficial for the hoteliers.” ACVB’s current data only tracks hotel occupancy for the first six matches in Atlanta. During that period, hotel occupancy was at its highest June 20, the day before the noon match between Spain and Saudi Arabia. About 80% of hotel rooms were booked, according to ACVB. This was followed by June 27, the day of the evening match between the Congo and Uzbekistan, when 74% of rooms were booked.
Porch of Wynkoop Brewing
What Manfred has not yet said publicly is what would happen if this project fails to get approved and the team’s 20-year quest for a new stadium remains ongoing and likely expands beyond the Tampa Bay area. Manfred, and Gov. Ron DeSantis, have said previously they would prefer to keep the team in the state, so it seems likely Orlando interests would get the first pitch for relocation. But if that doesn’t seem feasible, MLB could grant permission for the Rays to explore other options ahead of a planned expansion of two teams by the end of the decade. Those options could include Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina; Nashville; Montreal; Salt Lake City; Portland; and Austin/other sites in Texas.
Map of North American MSAs with populations > 1 million with and without NBA teams. Post describes map.
Silver’s remarks follow a report by Oregon Public Broadcasting this week that city councilors will vote without seeing the specifics of what the money would be used for. Independent sports columnist John Canzano then reported that Dundon and the Blazers have largely broken off written communication with city officials; Canzano surmised that Dundon was slow-walking a deal in hopes that a “no” vote by the City Council would allow him to pursue more lucrative markets.
“Build it and they will come” often acts as a slogan among optimists in commercial real estate. But what happens if they don’t come?
Despite uncertainty over the outcome, Indiana lawmakers passed the law to build the stadium with overwhelming bipartisan support and remain hopeful it will come to fruition. Asked for comment, Indiana House Speaker Todd Huston said in a statement that local elected officials and residents of Lake and Porter counties have been very supportive. “This project will be a catalyst for growth across the entire northwest Indiana corridor, creating jobs, attracting new residents and businesses, boosting tourism and generating new revenue that will benefit the region and taxpayers for generations to come,” Huston said. “I’m optimistic about getting this project across the finish line and continuing to work with local officials and residents to bring this transformative opportunity to northwest Indiana.”
A buyer should beware of a Bentley on sale for half price, says public finance analyst Geoffrey Propheter. So should the public on a sports stadium, Propheter says. “With sports facilities, few lawmakers ever ask what’s behind the curtain,” Propheter, an associate professor at the University of Colorado Denver, told the Tribune. “They are so in love with what they see that they ignore what they can’t see.”
Super Nintendo Chalmers: May I see it? Principal Skinner: No.
As a deadline to commit public dollars to Moda Center renovations rapidly approaches, it appears that Portland city councilors will be asked to approve spending $120 million on arena renovations next month without knowing where that money will come from in the city budget. According to city officials, that’s because the Portland Trail Blazers have yet to share details of the renovation plans they have in mind for the Moda Center. The Blazers say they need the city to commit to funding before they’ll share designs.
If you miss this, you'd better be dead or in jail. And if you're in jail ... break out!
"The citizens who are going to either vote for you or not vote for you during the next election should understand that it's not something that promotes economic development, even though they argue it does," Zimbalist said. "If they're calling upon the city to put down $300 million or $500 million or a billion dollars in this thing, they like to be able to make the argument that this is going to be really good for the local economy. That argument is not to be believed."
The mixed-use argument: Does The Battery change the math? Supporters of the Tampa project frequently point to The Battery Atlanta as a model for what Tampa could achieve. The Battery Atlanta is the mixed-use development surrounding the Atlanta Braves' Truist Park in Cobb County, Georgia. Zimbalist said The Battery is a legitimate success story, but cautioned against assuming Tampa's project would replicate those results. "I think it is a successful case study. It's not overwhelmingly successful, as might be claimed, but it is successful," he said. "If Tampa were able to do something like that, then let's look at it closely."
Zimbalist, who estimates he turns down about three-quarters of the expert-for-hire solicitations he receives, argued that instead of it creating a conflict of interest, the Braves’ remuneration gave his work a stamp of legitimacy. “If I didn’t get paid there is an element in it that says I am not a professional, I am doing it for some other reasons,” Zimbalist said. “The payment thing is, ‘damned if you do, damned if you don’t.’”
The Rays say the project would generate $55.5 billion in economic impact over 30 years. A separate study commissioned by the Tampa Sports Authority put that figure even higher at $75.5 billion over the same period. What independent economists are saying Zimbalist said those projections should be viewed with deep skepticism. Not because the project lacks merit, but because the firms that produced those numbers were paid to reach favorable conclusions. "Every time a stadium proposal is made by a team, they always go out, and they hire a company. They pay them big bucks, could be a million dollars, to do a study, and it's very clear what that study is supposed to show," Zimbalist said.
Reds from Shawshank Redemption: I look back on the way I was then: a young, stupid kid ... I want to talk to him. I want to try to talk some sense to him, tell him the way things are. But I can't. That kid's long gone, and this old man is all that's left.
Owner Tom Dundon’s wife, Veruschka Dundon, along with their five kids, fill the first two lines of names as they are all engraved on the trophy. The family’s inclusion drew mixed reactions on social media, but the addition of family members who are deemed to be “involved with the team” isn’t new. In 2024 and 2025, Florida Panthers owner Vincent Viola included his wife, Teresa, and their three sons.
He signed up for four booths, two in South Downtown and two at Steele Bridge. He said he spent $128,000 on booth fees, rental equipment, labor and perishable food. Using a tool provided for Welcome to ATL vendors, he projected he would make about $40,000 a day for the 16 days he was going to be vending. That would’ve been more than $600,000 in one month. But sales fell far below those projections. He said he sold less than $1,000 in the four days he had his booths set up before cutting his losses and pulling out of the activation.
For Pete's Sake, He's Fleeing the interview Scene from the move Fargo
Local economic development policy administration is another contributor to the prevalence of stadium subsidies. Sports venues are often promoted as economic development projects, even though research evidence demonstrates that stadiums are poor development anchors. This represents a symptom of a broader problem in local policymaking which sees the active promotion of economic development using incentives as necessary and productive. This chapter explains why incentives are not needed for real economic development to occur; in fact; evidence suggests that incentives may be counterproductive to their intended goal. The practitioner ethos among local economic development bureaucrats helps explain why economic development justifications for venue projects are persuasive among policymakers.
Epic handshake meme: Left arm: Idiots on the left Right arm: Idiots on the right Clasped hands: GDP is bad. Captain Pickard facepalm in corner representing economists
Diamond District ‘anchor’ largely stands alone The city has long-marketed Diamond District redevelopment as a sports and entertainment destination. Developers have planned to include park, retail and office spaces, a hotel and a mixed-income, mixed-use residential development on the 60-acre property, located along the Interstate 95 East corridor. Finally, at its heart, a new home for the Flying Squirrels. CarMax Park hosted its first game in early April, drawing crowds of fans for this highly anticipated opening night. However, as of the time of reporting, “not a single surrounding first-phase building has been completed, including the promised retail component and hotel,” per Nikas. “The stadium is open and the Flying Squirrels are playing baseball,” Nikas wrote. “But the broader district that justified the project remains substantially incomplete.” Nikas claims that the city and Diamond District developers are years behind their promised schedule. Initially, the surrounding retail component was meant to be completed in 2026 — alongside CarMax Park’s opening day — and the hotel in 2027. Deadlines for the initial four buildings in the development’s first phase have “slipped to 2028,” Nikas wrote, “meaning the promised retail component is now years behind schedule and the hotel has likewise been delayed.”
For the city’s part, city councilors should drop the inflammatory comments that reduce this issue to bumper sticker slogans. Funding a Moda Center renovation shouldn’t be a referendum on billionaires but rather a rational evaluation of how to upgrade a city-owned asset and ensure that an economic engine and cultural touchstone remains in Portland.
From the 1965 The Beatles concert at Atlanta Stadium.
Georg Costanza (a stocky, slow-witted, bald man) states: It's not socialism, if it's going to sports.