Playing Dice With The Universe

@jefleppard.bsky.social

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A data nerd who loves music, movies, books, comics, games, math, and science.

Column chart showing the results of one million simulations of the 2025 Florida Panthers vs Edmonton Oilers Stanley Cup playoff series. Florida wins in 53.3% of the simulations, with 4-2 being the most likely series outcome but 4-3 being almost as close.
Column chart showing the results of one million simulations of the 2025 Dallas Stars vs Edmonton Oilers Stanley Cup playoff series. Dallas wins in 63.1% of the simulations, with 4-2 being the most likely series outcome.
Column chart showing the results of one million simulations of the 2025 Carolina Hurricanes vs Florida Panthers Stanley Cup playoff series. Carolina wins in only 51.2% of the simulations, with 4-2, 4-3, 3-3-4, and 2-4 all being almost as likely.
Table showing all teams in the 2025 NHL playoffs and their predicted outcomes based on one million simulations of a data model based on regular season and first round playoff stats. Dallas Stars now have the highest likelihood of winning the cup with 37.51% odds, while at the other end the Edmonton Oilers now have a 16.98% chance.
Column chart showing the results of one million simulations of the 2025 Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars Stanley Cup playoff series. Winnipeg wins in 67.3% of the simulations, with 4-2 and 4-1 being the most common series outcomes.
Column chart showing the results of one million simulations of the 2025 Vegas Golden Knights vs Edmonton Oilers Stanley Cup playoff series. Vegas wins in 64.7% of the simulations, with 4-2 being the most common series outcome.
Column chart showing the results of one million simulations of the 2025 Washington Capitals vs Carolina Hurricanes Stanley Cup playoff series. Washington wins in 59.3% of the simulations, with 4-2 being the most common series outcome.
Column chart showing the results of one million simulations of the 2025 Toronto Maple Leafs vs Florida Panthers Stanley Cup playoff series. Toronto wins in 53.0% of the simulations, with 4-2 and 4-3 being the most common series outcomes.
Table showing all teams in the 2025 NHL playoffs and their predicted outcomes based on one million simulations of a data model based on regular season and first round playoff stats. Winnipeg Jets still have the highest likelihood of winning the cup with 33.98% odds. Edmonton Oilers in last with only a 3.97% chance of going all the way.
Column chart showing the results of one million simulations of the 2025 Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Stanley Cup playoff series. Tampa Bay wins in 68.5% of the simulations, with 4-2 being the most common series outcome.
Column chart showing the results of one million simulations of the 2025 Los Angeles Kings vs Edmonton Oilers Stanley Cup playoff series. Washington wins in 61.2% of the simulations, with 4-2 being the most common series outcome.
Column chart showing the results of one million simulations of the 2025 Washington Capitals vs Montréal Canadiens Stanley Cup playoff series. Washington wins in 79.4% of the simulations, with 4-1 being the most common series outcome.
Column chart showing the results of one million simulations of the 2025 Vegas Golden Knights vs Minnesota Wild Stanley Cup playoff series. Vegas wins in 77.9% of the simulations, with 4-1 being the most common series outcome.
Column chart showing the results of one million simulations of the 2025 Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Stanley Cup playoff series. Toronto wins in 62.2% of the simulations, with 4-2 being the most common series outcome.
Column chart showing the results of one million simulations of the 2025 Carolina Hurricanes vs New Jersey Devils Stanley Cup playoff series. Carolina wins in 55.1% of the simulations, with 4-2 being the most common series outcome.
Column chart showing the results of one million simulations of the 2025 Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche Stanley Cup playoff series. Dallas wins in 54.8% of the simulations, with 4-2 being the most common series outcome.
Column chart showing the results of one million simulations of the 2025 Winnipeg Jets vs St. Louis Blues Stanley Cup playoff series. Winnipeg wins in 78.7% of the simulations, with 4-1 being the most common series outcome.
Table showing all teams in the 2025 NHL playoffs and their predicted outcomes based on one million simulations of a data model based on regular season stats. Winnipeg Jets have the highest likelihood of winning the cup with 26.19% odds. Montreal Canadiens in last with only a 0.25% chance of going all the way.