Jim Sullivan

@jimsullivan.bsky.social

575 Followers 471 Following

Meteorologist at NWS Cleveland. I forecast the weather with mixed results. Thoughts and views are my own. Fork off.

Loop of the 0Z NAM run 500 millibar heights and mean sea level pressure. It shows a surface low deepening extremely quickly to 970mb while moving slowly east-northeast off the Delmarva. At the same time, the 500 millibar low quickly deepens and captures the surface low. The low remains strong while gradually moving east-northeast to the right of southeast New England.
Loop of European model 500 millibar heights at 18z Saturday, a trend over the last 8 runs. Trends are for a deeper trough over the Rockies, slightly higher heights over the Northeast US, and more opportunity for heights to build ahead of the storm.
December 5th normals and records for Youngstown Ohio. Normals is 42 and 28 degrees and records of 71 and 9 degrees.
European ensemble mean 500 millibar heights and anomalies valid at 360 hours, including above average heights over the north Pacific, Alaska and extending into the Arctic with two closed height contours.
Satellite loop of hurricane Mellissa as of about 415 zulu Tuesday. The loop shows a large central dense overcast that is very cold and symmetric, and surrounds a very distinct, warm eye. The overall satellite appearance is improving, and the storm is moving slowly to the north-northeast towards Jamaica and eastern Cuba.
Dropsonde from recon in the eye of Hurricane Melissa, showing a surface pressure of 902 millibars and 22 knots of wind...implying a minimum central pressure of 900 millibars.
European model forecast 500 millibar heights and vorticity valid 21 zulu Tuesday October 21st. The model depicts a large closed low centered near Wisconsin, with a compact, sharp negatively tilted shortwave rotating around the closed low and moving into western OH and southwest Michigan.
Infrared satellite loop of tropical storm Kiko in the central Pacific, depicting a burst of convection north of the center collapsing early in the loop. As the convection collapsed gravity waves were evident, with brief disruption to clouds within Kiko's low level circulation.
A loop of the dynamic tropopause potential temperature from the 12z Saturday, August 30, run of the deterministic ECMWF model. It shows a trough developing over central Canada, the Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes this upcoming week with the trough originating from north of Alaska.
Observed sounding from a dropsonde released by hurricane hunters in the eye of hurricane Erin. The dropsonde hit water with a pressure of 920 millibars and 50 knots of wind.
NAM forecast 500 millibar heights, winds, vorticity for 18z Wednesday. The image depicts a strong jet streak over the Ohio Valley with diffluence over the upper Ohio Valley, and a negatively tilted vort max over the southern Great Lakes.
Picture of icicles hanging from a rocky hillside
Photo of the front of the Hook & Ladder
Loop of European ensemble mean 500 millibar heights and sea level pressure from this Saturday through Sunday, January 5th, showing a series of low pressure systems carving out a trough into the Great Lakes and Northeast, leading to a favorable pattern for prolonged lake effect snow.
Composites of past jet extensions, showing potential for a briefly more seasonable pattern across the lower 48 as western ridging relaxes followed by a chance for cold to return a few days later as a +PNA develops and increases chances for eastern troughing/cold.
Composites of past equatorward shifts, showing 500mb height anomalies peaking near Alaska 0 to 3 days after an equatorward shift with increasing risk of cold into North America shortly thereafter.
Probabilistic north Pacific jet phase from the GFS ensembles, showing high confidence in an ongoing equatorward shift followed by decent confidence in a jet extension to start December.
500 millibar pattern from the European ensemble mean through December 10th.
Radar loop and surface observations from the Lake Erie vicinity today, showing a small mesoscale low pressure developing over Lake Erie and pushing onshore near Cleveland, producing an organized area of heavy snow.
Radar showing heavy snow over my house
Climate prediction center hazards outlook for heavy snow for week 2. A slight risk across the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and central Appalachians and a moderate risk immediately downwind of the Great Lakes due to lake effect.