John Schuhmann

@johnschuhmann.bsky.social

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Senior writer for NBA.com, proud Hokie, father of #LeaguePassAlert and Son of Dad.

Table showing the top 12 players in effective field goal percentage in the last 7 seconds of the shot clock over the last 2 years. All 5 Knicks starters are in the top 12 among 67 players with at least 300 field goal attempts. Anunoby: 3rd Towns: 5th Brunson: 6th Bridges: 10th Hart: 12th
Knicks’ defense 19. New York’s opponents have shot just 30.5% from 3-point range, which would be the lowest opponent playoff mark with a minimum of 500 attempts (40 total teams). That includes just 32.3% on wide-open 3s, the lowest opponent playoff mark (minimum 200 attempts) in the 13 years of tracking data (51 teams). 20. According to tracking data, the Knicks have blitzed 12.3% of ball-screens, the highest rate in the playoffs by a wide margin and up from 3.9% (16th highest) in the regular season. Brunson (18.6%), Robinson (15.5%) and Towns (14.3%) have the three highest blitz rates among 38 players who’ve been the screener’s defender on at least 75 ball-screens in the playoffs. 21. The Knicks have allowed just 0.83 points per chance when Towns has been the screener’s defender on a ball-screen, down from 0.98 per chance in the regular season. Who’s on the floor? 22. The Knicks have scored 126.3 points per 100 possessions with Brunson on the floor. That’s the highest on-court mark on offense among 146 players who’ve averaged at least 10 minutes per game.
Book cover: “101 Plays of the Playoffs” by Sean Sweeney.
Photo from Rocket Arena before Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Last season, the Knicks had a negative point differential through Game 5 of the conference semis, only climbing into the positive with a 38-point win in Game 6 against Boston. This year, they’ve got the best point differential for any team through two rounds in the 43 years of the 16-team playoff format, with half of their wins having come by 29 points or more. Three takeaways Only two teams – the Thunder and the Knicks – have scored more efficiently in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, with New York having seen the biggest jump in effective field goal percentage and the second biggest jump in free throw rate. Among the 87 players with at least 50 field goal attempts in the playoffs, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges have seen the biggest, second biggest and sixth biggest jumps in effective field goal percentage from the regular season. Unsurprisingly, the opponents have tried to attack both Towns and Jalen Brunson in the pick-and-roll. But the Knicks’ defense has held up, allowing just 0.85 points per chance when a ball-screen by the guy Brunson or Towns has defended has led directly to a shot, turnover or trip to the line. They’ve certainly benefitted from their opponents shooting just 31.2% from 3-point range, including just 31.7% on wide-open attempts. The starters have been better than they were in the regular season; The Knicks have outscored their opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions in 175 total minutes with their four healthy starters on the floor. But the Knicks have also had the No. 1 bench in the playoffs and outscored the Hawks and Sixers by an amazing 28.8 per 100 (allowing less than a point per possession) in Mitchell Robinson’s 130 minutes.
Table showing the previous 5 teams that went 8-6 through the first 2 rounds. 2003 Dallas - Lost in conference finals 2006 Phoenix - Lost in conference finals 2008 Boston - Won the Finals 2016 Toronto - Lost in conference finals 2020 Denver - Lost in conference finals
Table showing 10 players who've seen the biggest effective field goal percentage drops from the regular season to the playoffs. Jamal Murray Rudy Gobert Brandon Ingram Jalen Suggs Reed Sheppard Jalen Duren Nikola Jokić Jaylon Tyson Deandre Ayton Terrence Shannon Jr.
Table showing 10 players who've seen the biggest effective field goal percentage jumps from the regular season to the playoffs. OG Anunoby Karl-Anthony Towns Alex Caruso Julian Champagnie Scoot Henderson Mikal Bridges Jayson Tatum Rui Hachimura Tari Eason Collin Murray-Boyles
Table showing the 8 teams that have swept through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs since 2003. 2005 Miami - Lost in conf. finals 2009 Cleveland - Lost in conf. finals 2010 Orlando - Lost in conf. finals 2012 San Antonio - Lost in conf. finals 2016 Cleveland - Won Finals 2017 Golden State - Won Finals 2017 Cleveland - Lost in Finals 2026 Oklahoma City
Over the last nine seasons (since 2017-18), 18 different teams have made the conference finals in either the Eastern or Western Conference. The Pistons (last appearance: 2008) and San Antonio Spurs (2017) can make it 20 if they win their respective series in the next week. That would be two-thirds of the league. The Sixers are not one of those 18 teams, even though they have the league’s fifth-best regular season record over that nine-year stretch.
Shot plot from Pistons-Cavs showing that the Pistons had an expected field goal percentage of 49.1%, but shot 43.9%. The Cavs had an expected FG% of 42.4%, but shot 57.5%.
The Wolves had the most impressive first round, losing Donte DiVincenzo and Anthony Edwards early in Game 4, but they still beat the Nuggets in six games. After 19 years without a playoff series win, they’re in the conference semis for a third straight year. First round takeaways Pistons-Magic was ugly, but the Wolves had the best adjusted defense in the first round, allowing 13 fewer points than Denver’s No. 1 offense scored in the regular season. It was the Nuggets’ worst six-game stretch of offense all year, even though Nikola Jokić missed 16 straight in December and January. They saw the biggest drop in effective field goal percentage and the second biggest drop in offensive rebounding percentage from the regular season to the first round. Ayo Dosunmu missed Game 6, but averaged 21.8 points on a true shooting percentage of 74.9% over his five games, up from 14.4 on 61.9% over his 24 regular-season games with Minnesota. With that, the Wolves were able to outscore the Nuggets by four points (0.8 per 100 possessions) in the 107 minutes he played without Edwards. The Wolves outscored the Nuggets by 12.3 points per game in the restricted area, easily the biggest differential in the first round. That was more about their offense, which saw the biggest drop in 3-point rate from the regular season (42% of their shots, 16th) to the first round (34.5%, 14th). Naz Reid (from 51.4% to 37.3%), Jaden McDaniels (from 30.9% to 20.2%) and Julius Randle (from 28.7% to 21.5%) saw the third, 10th and 15th biggest drops, respectively, among 112 players with at least 25 field goal attempts in the playoffs.
Shot plot from the Raptors-Cavs game, based on difficulty of the shots.
A year ago, the Thunder won Game 1 of the first round by 51 points. This time, they only won by 35, beginning their title defense by holding the Suns to just 84 points on 93 possessions, their fourth-worst offensive performance of the season. The case for the Thunder: There have been seven teams in NBA history that outscored their opponents by at least 11 points per game in the regular season. Six of them went on to win the championship, while the seventh (the 1971-72 Bucks, +11.2 per game) lost in the conference finals to a team (the Lakers, +12.3) above them on the list. The Thunder outscored their opponents by 11.1 points per game, not quite as good as last season (12.9), but still remarkable given the absence of Jalen Williams for 49 games. The Thunder defense allowed 8.3 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league average, the second-best differential in the 30 seasons for which we have play-by-play data. The most efficient shots come at the basket, and no team protected the basket better than the champs. They ranked first (by a wide margin) in opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area (60.7%) and second in the (lowest) percentage of opponent shots that came in the restricted area (24%). The case against the Thunder: Jalen Williams hasn’t been the same player that he was a year ago, especially regarding perimeter shooting. The Thunder also saw a big drop in transition opportunities this season. So there’s a greater burden on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to create in the half-court, and their offense hasn’t been nearly as good (2.8 points per 100 possessions better than league average) as it was last season (5.6 per 100 better). Something to watch in Game 2: Gilgeous-Alexander finding his jumper. While Williams shot 9-for-15 on Sunday, the reigning MVP was just 5-for-18, including 0-for-8 from outside the paint. This was both the best mid-range shooting season (54.9%) and the second-best 3-point shooting season (38.7%) of his career.
Madison Square Garden before the start of Hawks-Knicks.
Table showing the 9 teams that finished the season with at least 50 wins & their records in games played between them. 1. Oklahoma City: 16-8 1. Detroit: 14-7 3. San Antonio: 16-9 4. New York: 10-10 5. Denver: 10-13 6. Boston: 9-12 7. Houston: 0-13 8. Cleveland: 8-12 9. L.A. Lakers: 7-15
Table showing the 14 games in the last 30 seasons where a team scored more than 150 points per 100 possessions. The 2025-26 Celtics account for the 2nd, 4th, 11th and 13th most efficient games on the list.
Cleveland 75, Miami 42
Scoreboard image of tonight's 3 NBA games. Scores: 55-65, 56-65 & 59-65
Table showing the 5 teams in NBA history with the largest average point differentials in games they won. 1. Charlotte 2025-26: 18.1 2. Milwaukee 1970-71: 17.5 3. Oklahoma City 2024-25: 17.3 4. Boston 2021-22: 16.9 5. Philadelphia 2011-12: 16.8
The Hawks’ 11-game winning streak ended in Houston on Friday, but they won the following night (against the Warriors). Atlanta is in the top six in the East, thanks to the head-to-head tie-breaker with the seventh-place Sixers. Three takeaways The winning streak started with a weak stretch of schedule, but it also coincided with CJ McCollum replacing Zaccharie Risacher in the starting lineup. The McCollum lineup has now played more than 250 minutes and has outscored opponents by 27.7 points per 100 possessions, which would be the best mark for any lineup that played at least 250 minutes in the 19 seasons for which we have play-by-play data. It’s obviously benefited from the weak schedule, but it was also a plus-22 in a little more than 20 minutes as the Hawks ended the Magic’s seven-game winning streak last Monday. Nickeil Alexander-Walker scored a career-high 41 points in the win over Orlando and has averaged 23 ppg in March, with the best true shooting percentage (72.2%) among the 41 players who’ve averaged at least 20 points this month. Alexander-Walker’s jump in per-game numbers is partially about an increase in minutes, but he’s also averaged 22.1 points per 36, up from 13.4 last season, with a huge jump in usage rate and a small jump in efficiency. The Hawks’ schedule over the last few weeks hasn’t just been soft in regard to the opponents. It’s also been home-heavy, with 10 of the wins on this 12-1 stretch having come at State Farm Arena. (They were 10-16 at home before the streak.) After they host the Grizzlies on Monday, they’ll play six of their final 10 games on the road and eight of the 10 against teams with winning records.
Jalen Johnson recorded his 12th triple-double of the season on Saturday (the Hawks are 8-4 in those games) and is now averaging a hair more than eight assists per game (fifth in the league). If he can maintain his current numbers, he would be just the fifth different player in NBA history to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists, joining Nikola Jokić (five seasons, including this one), Russell Westbrook (four), Oscar Robertson (three) and Wilt Chamberlain (one).
Three takeaways Jalen Williams remains out, but the Thunder got healthier last week, with Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein all returning from short absences. Ajay Mitchell came back from a 20-game absence last Monday, and he was in the starting lineup for each of the last two games, having started just nine of his previous 44. Among the team’s two-man combinations that have played at least 200 minutes together, the combo of Mitchell and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the best on-court mark on offense, with Oklahoma City having scored 123.3 points per 100 possessions in its 604 minutes. Aside from their win over the Nuggets last Monday (129 points on 100 possessions), the Thunder’s offense has been pretty average over the last month. But they’ve allowed just 106 points per 100 (second) since the All-Star break, even though six of their 12 post-break games have come against top-10 offenses. Their last four opponents have combined to shoot just 51.3% in the paint, and the Wolves had 25 turnovers (16 of them live balls) on Sunday afternoon. Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t been the most efficient scorer in the clutch this season, but he leads the league with 153 points scored with the score within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime, and he’s certainly had some clutch highlights of late. He made four huge step-back 3s over the span of three games, culminating with his game-winner against the Nuggets last Monday. Then he hit two pull-up 2-pointers for the lead in the final 65 seconds against Boston on Thursday, before Chet Holmgren gave the Thunder their final lead at the free-throw line. Over his career (and including postseason), Gilgeous-Alexander has shot 245-for-504 (48.6%) on clutch shots, easily the best mark among guards who’ve attempted at least 250 in the 30 years for which we have clutch data.
Tweet from April, 2022... "Scottie Roy, gets the screen from Pascal Allenbeeyay, passes to Precious Mostimproved, hands to Gary Alldefense, over to Freddie Allstaaaarr... Gooood! From Brantford!"
Clippers broadcast graphic from Thursday... 3-point defense 21-4 record when holding opponent under NBA avg. of 35.9% 5-24 record when opponent shoots 36.0% or better.
After a couple of bad losses, the Wolves went into the break with a pair of comfortable wins and they’re just 1.5 games behind the third-place Nuggets. Three numbers to know This would be the 13th time in the last 16 seasons where the Wolves had fewer actual wins than “expected” wins, based on their point differential. They’re one of four teams that rank in the top eight on both ends of the floor and have the point differential (fourth best in the West) of a team that’s 37-19. But they’re just 12-12 (1-5 since mid-January) in games that were within five points in the last five minutes, even though Anthony Edwards has been the league’s best clutch shooter. They’ve allowed 8.8 fewer points per 100 possessions at home (108.3, third) than they have on the road (116.9, 22nd). That’s the league’s biggest home-road differential on either end of the floor. Among 192 players with at least 100 3-point attempts in each of the last two seasons, Jaden McDaniels (from 33.0% to 45.4%) and Ayo Dosunmu (from 32.8% to 44.7%) have seen the two biggest jumps in 3-point percentage. Coming up: The Wolves have the league’s third toughest post-break schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.522), though three of their first four games are against teams that currently have losing records. They were 14-1 against that group in mid-December but have since gone 8-8.
Jalen Johnson, F, Atlanta Hawks 1. Has averaged 8.2 assists per 36 minutes, up from 3.1 per 36 last season. That’s the second biggest jump among 262 players who’ve played at least 300 minutes in each of the last two seasons. He leads the league with 182 total assists on 3-pointers, with his 3.6 assists per game on 3-pointers ranking fourth among players who’ve played at least 25 games. 2. One of eight players – Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama are two of the others – with at least 60 total dunks (62) and at least 60 3-pointers (83). Nikola Jokić, C, Denver Nuggets 1. Leads the league in on/off differential for what would be the fifth straight season. The Nuggets have been 15.8 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor (plus-11.7) than they’ve been with him off the floor (minus-4.1). 2. Official league leader in both rebounds (12.3) and assists (10.7) per game. No player in NBA history has ever led the league in both rebounds and assists per game (in the same season or in separate ones).
Scoreboard image: Lakers 69, Nets 40 at the half.
Table showing the Spurs' opponents shooting in the paint with Victor Wembanyama on and off the floor. On floor: 50.8% shooting, 39.7% of their total shots. Off floor: 58.8% shooting, 50.4% of their shots.
Penn State Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer Commits To Virginia Tech
The Bucks are 5-3 since Giannis Antetokounmpo returned to the lineup, and they handed the Lakers their first clutch loss of the season on Friday. But they’re still not looking like anything better than a SoFi Play-In Tournament team in the East. Three takeaways Antetokounmpo has recorded a positive plus-minus in seven of his eight games since his return, and the Bucks outscored Denver by 16 points in his 33 minutes on the floor on Sunday. But in an ironic twist, the Nuggets took advantage of the minutes when their opponent’s best player was on the bench, outscoring the Bucks by 20 in Antetokounmpo’s 15 minutes off the floor. Over the eight games total, Milwaukee has been 32 points per 100 possessions better with Antetokounmpo on the floor (plus-16.9) than its been with him off the floor (minus-15.1). Antetokounmpo had just 12 points in the paint on Sunday, but is still averaging 24.7 points in the paint per 36 minutes, which would be the most for any player in the 30 seasons for which we have shot-location data. His field goal percentage in the paint (73.5%) and the percentage of his shots that have come in the paint (79%) are both the highest marks of his career. Overall, Antetokounmpo has more points, 731, than minutes played (730), but his 2.12 steals + blocks per 36 minutes would be the second-lowest rate of his career. Still, he made the two biggest defensive plays in the Bucks’ win over the Lakers on Friday, blocking LeBron James’ layup with the score tied and 40 seconds left and then stripping James from behind after the Bucks took the lead. Coming up: The Bucks are now 6-15 (4-8 with Antetokounmpo) against the 16 teams currently over .500, a mark that includes a three-point loss (without him) in Minnesota three weeks ago. They’re back home to face the Wolves on Tuesday before hitting the road again and facing the Spurs for the first time.
2 tables showing the NBA teams with the biggest differences between their actual wins and their "expected" wins (based on point differential). The Lakers are at the top of the first list. They're 22-11, with the point differential of a team that's 17-16. They're followed by Chicago, Washington, Utah and Sacramento. The Rockets area t the top of the second list. They're 21-11 with the point differential of a team that's 25-21. They're followed by Boston, Miami, the Clippers and Charlotte.
Screen grab from "Hoosiers," where Rate Butcher is shooting off one leg.
Table showing the 10 players with at least 3 made field goals to tie or take the lead in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime. Keyonte George (5-for-9) and Alperen Sengun (5-for-13) are at the top of the list. Anthony Edwards (4-for-5) is third.
The Suns are hovering just outside the top six in the West, having won three straight games, including a thrashing of the Dončić-less Lakers on Tuesday. Three takeaways The Suns made some big defensive plays down the stretch of their first of two wins in New Orleans over the weekend. Mark Williams picked Derik Queen’s pocket, Ryan Dunn blocked a Zion Williamson layup for the lead, and then Dunn deflected a Jordan Poole pass in the final minute. Phoenix is averaging 10.8 steals per 100 possessions, the highest rate for any team in the last 23 seasons. Overall, the Suns now rank as the league’s most improved defensive team, having allowed 4.2 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did last season. A lot of that improvement is the league’s biggest jump in opponent turnover rate, but they’ve also seen significant drops in both opponent 3-point rate and opponent 3-point percentage. The Suns haven’t been as good an offensive team as they were last season, but their game against the Lakers was an opportunity for them to break out of a little offensive slump, and their 132 points on 95 possessions were their best offensive performance of the season. It came with 25 points on 10-for-15 shooting from Dillon Brooks, who continues to register the highest true shooting percentage of his career (56.8%) while having seen the league’s biggest jump in usage rate (from 17.6% to 28%) among 316 players who’ve played at least 200 minutes in each of the last two seasons. Coming up: The Suns are the only team that hasn’t played in an Eastern Conference arena, and they’ve played just two total games against the East thus far. They’ll double that total in the next three days, finishing their four-game trip with visits to Washington and Cleveland. Their game in D.C. on Monday (for which Williams is suspended) will be their second rest-advantage game of the season.
Brook Lopez had been out of the rotation for much of the last month, but he started the second half in Zubac’s place on Saturday and had one of his better games of the season, scoring 11 points and blocking two shots in less than 25 minutes. The Clippers have still scored just 104.1 points per 100 possessions in Lopez’s 308 minutes, though that breaks down to 120.9 per 100 in 151 minutes with James Harden also on the floor and an anemic 87.7 per 100 in 157 minutes with Harden off the floor.
Table showing the players with the highest true shooting percentage in a season where they averaged at least 20 points per game. No. 1: Nikola Jokic this season: 29.8 points, 71.8% No. 2: Nikola Jokic, 2022-23: 24.5 points, 70.1% Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season is fifth on the list and the highest for a player averaging at least 30 points per game. 32.1 points, 67.3%
Maybe there wasn’t enough emphasis on schedule strength as the Thunder won 24 of their first 25 games, outscoring their opponents by a ridiculous 17.2 points per 100 possessions. Only five of those 25 games were against the other 14 teams that currently have winning records, and only three were against teams that currently rank in the top 10 offensively. They’re now halfway through a stretch where they’re playing six of eight against winning teams.
The Spurs came up short in the Emirates NBA Cup final on Tuesday, but they’ve won their last six games that count toward the regular-season standings. They’re second in the West and one of three teams that rank in the top six on both ends of the floor. Three takeaways The Spurs hadn’t played De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle together through the first three games that all three were available. But when the Cup final went to clutch time, it was those three plus Devin Vassell and Victor Wembanyama who were on the floor together. That group couldn’t get the job done (it was outscored, 14-8, in the final 4:09) against the Knicks, but it could be the lineup that the Spurs call on in big moments going forward. There were no big moments over their next three games, with the Spurs leading all three by at least 24 points. They had everybody available for both games of their Thursday-Friday back-to-back, and they were their two biggest wins (combined margin of 53 points) since opening night in Dallas. Wembanyama has been back for just four games (that count), and he’s played just 81 minutes (all off the bench) in those four games. But that’s all it’s taken for the Spurs to climb from 16th (before his return) to fifth in points allowed per 100 possessions. They’ve allowed just 88.3 per 100 in those 81 minutes with him on the floor, with the context being that 39 of the 81 came against the Wizards. Coming up: The Spurs and Thunder are playing five times this season because they met in the NBA Cup semifinals. All five meetings are in the span of six weeks (Dec. 13 to Feb. 4), and the second and third are this week as the Spurs are in Oklahoma City on Christmas. Wembanyama had 42 points, 18 rebounds and four blocks in his Christmas debut, a three-point loss in New York last year.
The Nuggets got an easy win in Sacramento on Thursday, with Nikola Jokić shooting 14-for-16 on his way to 36 points. They’ve won four straight games overall and 11 straight on the road. Three takeaways The Nuggets now have the league’s No. 1 offense by a pretty healthy margin as they’ve scored 9.5 more points per 100 possessions than the league average. That would be the best differential in the 30 seasons of play-by-play data. But they’ve played three more games against teams that currently rank in the bottom 10 defensively (10) as they have against teams that currently rank in the top 10 (seven), and their schedule is about to get much tougher in that regard, with 10 of their next 11 games coming against top-10 defenses. The Nuggets’ starting lineup – with Spencer Jones and Peyton Watson in place of Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon – has outscored opponents by 20.8 points per 100 possessions, the best mark among 21 lineups that have played at least 100 minutes. Braun and Gordon have (basically) been out for the last 11 games, with Jones and Watson combining to shoot 33-for-74 (45%) from 3-point range over that stretch. The Nuggets also have the league’s fifth-ranked bench, up from 22nd last season. They’ve outscored their opponent in Jokić’s minutes off the floor in six of their last eight games. Coming up: The Nuggets haven’t played the Thunder or Lakers, but they’re 5-1 within the top seven in the West, with the highlight being their three-point win in Houston on Nov. 21. They’ll face the Rockets two more times this week, hoping to end a four-game losing streak at home as they begin a four-game homestand on Monday.
Crew chief Zach Zarba provided an explanation to a pool reporter. “Rule 4 section 6G, the frontcourt backcourt status is not obtained until a player with the ball has established a positive position in either half in this instance during the throw in the last two minutes of the fourth period and the last two minutes in any overtime period,” Zarba said. “So, obviously that is where we were at that point. Brunson and the trajectory of the pass were headed towards the backcourt. Brunson’s momentum was taking him there when he touches the ball. Due to that momentum, he’s not considered in a positive position at that time. That’s why that play is legal.”