John Springford

@johnspringford.bsky.social

19109 Followers 1795 Following

Economist and occasional politics dabbler. Working on a project to improve labour markets. Associate fellow, Centre for European Reform. Visiting fellow, Institute for Policy Research, Bath University.

Economic hubris, political nemesis There was another mismatch too. Economists believed they were answering the central question facing the country: would Brexit make the country more or less prosperous? Many voters were asking a different question altogether. Who should make UK laws? How should immigration be controlled? What kind of country do we want to be? These are not questions that economics can settle, nor should it pretend to. Looking back, one of our mistakes was to assume that because the economic consequences were important, they would also be decisive.
Munira Mirza: Prioritising the welfare of those who live and contribute in the UK over those who have recently arrived or want to come here. Helping young British entrepreneurs grow their businesses rather than be forced to leave because they face costs that multinationals can absorb. Making sure we capture some of the value of AI rather than become entirely dependent on the US. Giving parliament the power to decide who gives away our territory, not international courts.
Last week a Commission spokesperson said that “the entry/exit system is fully operational across all Schengen countries and works well” and that the “rules provide for the necessary flexibility to ensure border fluidity”. They added that “most often long waiting times are not related to the operations of the EES, but to pre-existing factors, such as staff shortages, infrastructure limitations, as well as concentration of flights in specific slots”.
Back in 2016, 1.64m trucks went through the tunnel. Last year, post Brexit, there were 1.16m. So there are almost half a million missing lorry journeys a year - nearly 30% of this economically critical, high-value cross-Channel traffic has been lost.
"But also, we've got a solution, we've got a competitive advantage." After spending "well over £1m, maybe £1.5m", Moss adds he "wouldn't want to see that investment lost". - Businessman to BBC
BBC News: Goodwin suggested that being white can be considered an important part of the overall British national identity. "In Britain one of the symbols of who we are is the white British people. Part of the makeup, it's part of our composition as a nation. There's nothing inherently bad about saying that, it's simply the reality of who we are." Although Goodwin also said earlier in the interview: "Yes, it is possible to be black and be English. It is not as likely as it is to be white British and English, but it's possible."
A graph of female labour force participation in the UK, 1921-2024: from a bit over 30% to a bit less than 60%
Dutch TTF natural gas futures price
A chart by Philip Lane on renewables penetration vs electricity prices
On air quality, where there was such momentum in the first few years of Khan’s term, progress has stalled. Environmentalists think Khan has said “job done”, they argue there’s much more to do. The Ulez scheme, too, has become so politically toxic that it forced Khan to abandon the genuinely radical policy of pay per mile road charging — a policy the Greens have now taken as their own, appealing to motor-free young Londoners more used to Lime bikes than manual gear changes.
Victorian? sign on a wall in Bankside saying "Commit no nuisance"
There are growing calls to make information on outcomes far more accessible, so applicants know what they are getting. “Students often get more information when buying a new phone than when signing up for a degree,” says Sir David Behan, who led a government review into higher education regulation in 2024.
The inflation shock after the 2022 energy crisis does not offer a simple guide to action. A big jump in inflation followed the rise in energy prices. But there were several other imbalances in the European economy at the time. Consumer demand came roaring back after Covid lockdowns were lifted, fuelled by savings built up during the pandemic. Supply was also constrained by problems in global distribution, with ships stuck in the wrong locations, and some manufacturing plants slow to restore production. The economy today is more balanced, with European demand weaker and the supply side less constrained by the effects of the pandemic.
A Swiss Guard with orange and blue pantaloons, jacket and gaiters, black beret, halberd.
There was planning reform, aiming to speed up building of homes and infrastructure, which this government sees as a broadly deregulatory agenda. There was energy, in which the government is already driving a large amount of investment, and is now trying to speed up delivery on nuclear (deregulation again) and subsidising parts of energy bills (more interventionist). There was capital, with Reeves hoping regulatory reforms will direct more capital towards productive businesses. And most interestingly, there was labour, where Reeves made it fairly explicit that her policy is to raise the cost of labour to try and force businesses to invest more in capital.
"The macro fund of London-based Caxton fell 15 per cent to March 20, while Citadel’s fixed income fund GFI was down 8.2 per cent in March. ExodusPoint, a multi-manager hedge fund that specialises in macro bets and bond trading, was down 4.5 per cent for the month while macro hedge fund Brevan Howard’s master fund was down 6.6 per cent."
Our guidance position We are unlikely to support the use of standard width double-glazed units or triple-glazed units in listed buildings other than on existing or proposed modern extensions. This is because they are not regarded as consistent with the traditional character and appearance of listed buildings, and would likely conflict with the requirement to preserve the special architectural or historic interest of the building.
Most officials and academics who conducted Brexit forecasts shied away from trying to model these potential gains. Quantifying the beneficial effects of sovereign regulation is fraught with difficulty, because we have weak tools to assess whether a rule is good or bad for the economy, and it is impossible to estimate whether UK or EU rules will be better across the hundreds of rules that are made each year. For example, the UK has signalled that it will impose fewer restrictions on the use of personal data for the development of AI models than the EU, to help the industry grow. But the potential benefits are impossible to forecast accurately, because the industry is in its infancy, and its impact on productivity across the economy is uncertain. In other areas of regulation, we have a better understanding of the benefits, but it is not clear if the British public would support a laissez-faire approach. The use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in agriculture, which are banned in the EU but not in the US, could raise farm productivity significantly, and some are currently allowed in the UK. But other US practices such as widespread use of hormones and antibiotics in animal husbandry – which, combined with very large farms, explain the high productivity of American livestock farming – have been too controversial for the government. EU environmental legislation, by its very nature, prevents businesses from doing things that add to output, at least in the short term, but harm the environment. Yet there’s no indication that the British public would support a general roll-back of protections, and the UK-EU FTA prevents Britain from going too far in that direction in any case. If the UK did slash environmental red tape, it would find that the EU would curb market access.
Last week he called for the shadow justice secretary Nick Timothy to be dismissed for a perfectly legitimate remark about Muslim prayers in Trafalgar Square. It happens that I don’t agree with Timothy; but I think the topic of his intervention deserved more than a saloon bar rant.
Leaving the EU has not resolved the dilemma facing all European governments – between maintaining employment as societies age and political pressure to reduce immigration. EU free movement offers a system in which more individuals make decisions, rather than bureaucrats, who have to use the blunt instrument of visa eligibility to control flows. Free movement with the EU also opens up a trade policy that is less damaging to the economy. It will be one of the demands the EU will make for significant participation in the single market. Since the UK immigration has been similar to other receiving countries in Europe, control has so far made little difference to outcomes. The central Brexit trade-off has always between sovereign decision-making and higher trade and output. While ‘taking back control’ appears to have modestly raised employment in Britain so far, a return to free movement would bring bigger benefits.