Jonas W. Schmid

@jonaswschmid.bsky.social

1308 Followers 1479 Following

Researching autocratic politics, ministers & international cooperation at the University of Oslo.

Coefficient plot showing the main results from the paper. Models show the marginal increase in the probability of being removed from cabinet during years with economic booms and normal economy relative to years of economic crises. The bars indicate 95 percent (thin) and 90 percent (bold) confidence intervals.
Bar chart from the paper comparing the average removal rates of finance ministers in autocracies and democracies during economic booms, crises, and normal economies, including and excluding years of leader changes.
Abstract Are the highest-ranking public officials rewarded for good performance? Using the case of finance ministers, we argue that this depends on the type of regime. Democratic leaders have incentives to retain high-performing finance ministers because they are accountable to the population through free and fair elections. In the absence of free and fair elections, autocrats face opposing incentives. While growth stabilizes the regime, a high-performing minister of finance can also be a potential rival. Moreover, autocratic finance ministers will, to a higher degree than democratic, be judged on their ability to enrich the leader rather than creating growth. As a result, autocrats reward finance ministers less for economic growth than democrats. Using data on over 2,800 finance ministers in the period 1966–2021, we dem- onstrate a close link between economic growth and the retention of finance ministers in democracies but not in autocracies. The findings indicate that democracies are better at fostering and rewarding competence at the highest level of political office, speaking to the merits of democracy relative to autocracy.
Logo of the Michael Scott Paper Company from the TV show the office.
Zoom screenshot of the orga committee's meeting with various filters on the members' faces.
AI generated image of a giant Donald Trump Bronze statue on the White House Lawn.
Picture of a presenter in an auditorium
Picture of presentation at workshop
Ozzy Osbourne and Lemmy Kilmister together some time in the 80s.
The IQ bell curve meme with average iq people preferring beamer and the dumb and intelligent people preferring Power Point.
A graphical illustration of the mechanism described in the post.
A coefficient plot showing the main results of the experiment. The force majeure and opposition treatments reduced approval of Erdogan relative to the control, there is no effect for the minister and private companies treatments.
An example for one of the treatment articles in the experiment. It first describes the earthquake and its consequences, followed by a statement by president Erdogan that blames the earthquake on nature and states that it is simply impossible to prepare for a disaster like this.
The title page of a paper listing the title: "Blame Shifting in Autocracies Following Large-scale Disasters: Evidence from Turkey"; the authors: Edward Goldring, Jonas Willibald Schmid, and Fulya Apaydin; and the abstract: "Large-scale disasters, particularly when handled poorly, often spark popular outrage and threaten an autocrat’s hold on power. Autocrats frequently employ blame shifting strategies to redirect public anger and weather these storms. We examine whether blame shifting after a large-scale disaster helps or hurts an autocrat’s popularity through a mixed-methods research design in the electoral autocracy of Turkey in April-July 2023, following the February 2023 earthquakes. An online survey experiment (n=3,839) identifies the effects of blaming the aftermath of the earthquake on the opposition, a force majeure, private construction companies, or a govern- ment minister, while focus groups explore the mechanisms behind these effects. We find that blaming the opposition or a force majeure leads to a backlash, especially among those more able to critically evaluate information. Focus groups reveal that these backlash effects are driven by voters’ dismay at electoral opportunism and the incumbent’s polarizing language following a large-scale disaster."; and the note that the paper is forthcoming in Perspectives on Politics.
Putin sits in front of a portrait of Donald Trump with "Employee of the month" written underneath.