Jon Green

@jongreen.bsky.social

5464 Followers 578 Following

Assistant professor, Department of Political Science, Duke University jgreen4919.github.io

Actual turnout by self-reported prospective turnout via BlueLabs. Respondents who said they would definitely vote or had already voted have near-100% actual turnout. Respondents who say they will probably vote have ~75% turnout. Respondents who say they're 50/50 to vote or will probably not vote have ~50% turnout. Respondents who say they will definitely not vote have ~25% turnout. Respondents who say they don't know if they'll vote have ~70% turnout.
Martin and Peskowitz (2015): Parties and Electoral Performance in the Market for Political Consultants Abstract: We investigate whether the hiring relationships of candidates and political con- sulting firms better resembles the predictions of the "adversarial" or "allied" models of consultant-party interaction. We find that the highest-quality consultants are not allocated to the most competitive races, consultant-candidate relationships persist even as candidates' electoral prospects change, and firms who work for challengers face a higher risk of market exit than firms working for incumbents. The market focuses entirely on win-loss records and ignores the information on consultant performance available in candidates' vote shares. These findings depict a market driven by individual candidate, rather than aggregate party,
tuxedo winnie the pooh meme: political / sociopolitical
No, the failure to cover the tattoo indicates something different about Platner: Like John Fetterman, he is a fuckup. These men lack conscientiousness, meaning they don’t take care of the things they should take care of, whether that’s staying on blood thinners, covering up a Nazi tattoo, or getting a job. They are messy and immature, and they make gobsmackingly stupid choices as a result. Platner isn’t just the kind of guy who uses Kik to sext with women who are not his wife — he’s the kind of guy who, after his Kik sexting is discovered during his campaign’s self-opposition research, fails to delete his Kik account before the press finds his profile picture in which he’s shirtless and strategically holding his phone to obscure his Nazi tattoo. (Apparently, he still hasn’t deleted it.) He’s also the kind of guy who forgets his talking points about the issue, denies claims his campaign has already admitted to, and extends the news cycle, forcing his campaign to clarify what he really meant to say. This is just a man with poor executive function overall, and geniuses in the progressive consultant class and the Maine Democratic electorate have decided to saddle us with him as a Senate candidate.
we apologise again for the fault in the suspensions. those responsible for suspending the people who have just been suspended have been suspended
Ribs, Mac and cheese, salad, berries, beer
a dual/conjoiner strawberry
As I will demonstrate, a key issue in determining whether or not the separation of powers generates inefficient policies is the extent to which the executive can commit to not changing the agency's ideal point after the budget has been allocated but before policy has been set by the agency. If the executive cannot make such a commitment, the legislature will have to take account of potential executive opportunism by further restricting the agency's discretion by lowering its budget proposal. Alternatively, if the executive could commit to a moderate agency, the legislature would pass a more generous budget which might make the executive better off and ameliorate the appointments dilemma. Obviously, a key factor which determines the executive's ability to commit to a particular agency ideal point are the constitutional and legal provisions concerning the executive's ability to remove agency officials. If the executive lacks removal power (such as the case of independent commissioners in the United States), he will be unable to manipulate the agency's ideal point after budgetary decisions are made. However, if the agency head serves at the executive's will, ex post manipulation will be easier.
babe ruth calling his shot
Tony Bautista batting stance
A pitcher mid-delivery
82-0 with: Ja Morant (MEM 2020s) Kevin Durant (GSW 2010s) Elgin Baylor (LAL 1960s) Larry Bird (BOS 1980s) Wilt Chamberlain (PHI 1960s)
Recently I took a friend with only a high school degree out for a drink. Insensitively, I led him in to my local microbrewery. Suddenly I saw his face freeze up as he was confronted with beers such as “gose” and “hazy IPA” and ingredients like lactose, cacao nibs and caraway seeds. I quickly asked him if he wanted to go somewhere else and he anxiously nodded yes and we went down the street for Miller Lites.
We apologise again for the fault in the subtitles. Those responsible for sacking the people who have just been sacked, have been sacked.
Nowhere was this more apparent than in the 2022 Georgia Senate election, where Republicans supported Herschel Walker to take on incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock. Despite a series of false and unverifiable claims by Walker, as well as the near-complete absence of a comprehensive policy agenda, endorsements by Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell were enough to take the senate race to a runoff when neither candidate was able to claim 50% of the vote in the first round. This was a blatant attempt by the Republican power base to take advantage of name recognition and tough economic conditions to push through an unqualified candidate whose job would have been little more than rubber stamping the president’s agenda[Note: in 2022, Joe Biden was president.]. Walker’s inability to muster even a shred of credibility precluded him from winning the election in one of the most polarized states in the nation.
Disclaimer: This document reflects the views of the author, not the DNC. The DNC was notprovided with the underlying sourcing, interviews, or supporting data for many of theassertions contained herein and therefore cannot independently verify the claims presented.
“When I was elected DNC chair, I commissioned an after action review of the 2024 election that I wanted to be honest and transparent, and with actionable and specific takeaways for the future of the Democratic Party. When I received the report late last year, it wasn’t ready for primetime — not even close — and because no source material was provided, it would have meant starting over. I could not in good faith put the DNC’s stamp of approval on the report that was produced.”
Figure H.1: Co-listening behavior. Each line connects shows (nested within intermediate level show blocks) that respondents listed together; thicker lines represent more frequent co-listening behavior. Block color is listener-weighted show median among shows with left/right estimates; line color averages between show-level left/right estimates (gray where either co-listed show had insufficient political episodes to be included in left/right estimates).
Figure 5: Correlates of block-level listening behavior among podcast listeners, for blocks with at least 100 listeners. Point ranges reflect logistic regression coefficients with 95% uncertainty intervals. Black point ranges are statistically significant.
title: A Framework for Studying Podcasts and their Audiences at Scale authors: Jon Green and Dominik Stecula abstract: A large and increasing share of media consumption in the United States takes place on podcasts. However, two of the most theoretically interesting features of this development also make it difficult to study empirically: the boundary between political and non-political shows is porous, and the audience is highly fragmented in ways that frustrate standard survey research. We address these challenges by first inferring political discussion frequency, relative left/right orientation, and network cluster in a sample of roughly 7,600 popular shows that are either categorized as political or share at least one guest with a show categorized as political. We then demonstrate how these show-level metadata can be incorporated into survey research to dramatically broaden and deepen our understanding of the political information consumption in this developing ecosystem.
Title: Niche Ideologies in the Mass Public: The Case of Christian Nationalism Authors: Jon Green, Nick Davis Abstract: It is common in survey research to measure political attitudes by inferring latent dimensions along which all respondents can be scored. We argue that this approach is ill-suited for the study of “niche ideologies” that organize the beliefs of concentrated minorities within specific political domains. We support this argument with the case of Christian nationalism, which is theorized as an ideology but typically measured as an attitude. Across two survey samples, we show that response patterns are better explained by a process in which individuals endorse, reject, or are unfamiliar with clusters of beliefs associated with Christian nationalism than by processes in which responses are dimensional. We then demonstrate that measuring Christian nationalism as an attitude can distort its relationship with theoretically relevant policy preferences. Our results clarify distinctions between attitudes and ideologies and offer suggestions for how to investigate other niche ideologies in mass opinion research.
alexbward on X: President Trump did not announce an escort mission just now, US officials say. Project Freedom, earlier called the Maritime Freedom Construct, is a coordination cell. It'll tell US-flagged ships and others the safe lanes to navigate the Strait of Hormuz (aka no mines, etc.)
Leonardo Di Caprio pointing meme
Political compass meme Authoritarian left: everything is revisionist propaganda except actual revisionist propaganda, which is fine Authoritarian right: everything is genocide except actual genocide, which is fine Libertarian right: everything is slavery except actual slavery, which is fine Libertarian left: everything is theft except actual theft, which is fine
edited headline: FEMA Official Says He Teleported to Waffle House He Was Obviously Just Blackout Drunk. We Are Exactly the Same Type of Progressive as You.
Title: Political Pundits and the Maintenance of Ideological Coalitions Authors: Allison Wan and Jon Green Abstract: Political ideologies help groups advance diverse sets of interests under common agendas. However, it is unclear how these groups maintain their norms regarding what it means to be a member in good standing in a dynamic information environment. Building on theories of “long” political coalitions, we hypothesize that ideological elites’ rhetorical influence on one another will tend to be concentrated and specialized with respect to specific concepts. We find support for this expectation using an original dataset of over 1,000 prominent political pundits in the United States, in which we infer coalition membership and the diffusion of novel language over a range of specific concepts. While pundits may discuss many concepts, they tend to “send” language to other pundits in relatively few, resulting in both concentration and specialization of influence within coalitions. These results clarify conceptual distinctions between political ideologies and political philosophies, and demonstrate real-time dynamics of contemporary ideological coalitions.
The architect in the matrix
"He can't keep getting away with it!" meme but it's "We can't keep getting away with it"
at 17:30 in the second half siena is winning 47-34 against duke but only has a 37% win probability
Newt Gingrich on X: Instead of fighting over a 21-mile-wide bottleneck forever, we cut a new channel through friendly territory. A dozen thermonuclear detonations and you’ve got a waterway wider than the Panama Canal, deeper than the Suez, and safe from Iranian attacks. Community note: The open letter ends with: "The views expressed above do not necessarily represent those of anyone with brain cells" https://www.chinatalk.media/p/its-time
@nickmullen on twitter: itll be interesting to see who "hates the cops" when they get robbed and need someone to show up 7 hours later and shrug their shoulders
GBR: 1 USA: 0 Bottom 4th
What if Einstein gets an answer wrong? You can review every solution before he submits it. Einstein also improves over time as he learns your course material and professor's expectations.
From 2012 to 2024, Catalist showed a steady drop in the Black Democratic presidential share, from 96 percent in 2012 to 93 in 2016 to 89 in 2020 to 85 percent in 2024. The falloff is most acute among Black men, who went from 95 percent Democratic in 2012 to 79 percent in 2024.
Article: The political effects of X’s feed algorithm Abstract: Feed algorithms are widely suspected to influence political attitudes. However, previous evidence from switching off the algorithm on Meta platforms found no political effects1. Here we present results from a 2023 field experiment on Elon Musk’s platform X shedding light on this puzzle. We assigned active US-based users randomly to either an algorithmic or a chronological feed for 7 weeks, measuring political attitudes and online behaviour. Switching from a chronological to an algorithmic feed increased engagement and shifted political opinion towards more conservative positions, particularly regarding policy priorities, perceptions of criminal investigations into Donald Trump and views on the war in Ukraine. In contrast, switching from the algorithmic to the chronological feed had no comparable effects. Neither switching the algorithm on nor switching it off significantly affected affective polarization or self-reported partisanship. To investigate the mechanism, we analysed users’ feed content and behaviour. We found that the algorithm promotes conservative content and demotes posts by traditional media. Exposure to algorithmic content leads users to follow conservative political activist accounts, which they continue to follow even after switching off the algorithm, helping explain the asymmetry in effects. These results suggest that initial exposure to X’s algorithm has persistent effects on users’ current political attitudes and account-following behaviour, even in the absence of a detectable effect on partisanship.
Quote from man stabbed: what are you gonna do, stab me?
silver bulletin chart: how political figures are perceived by the left, right, and center. shows that Republicans rate Democrats from Alexandria Ocasio Cortez through Chuck Schumer as similarly extreme (while Democrats differentiate her, Mamdani, and Sanders from establishment Democrats) while Democrats rate Republicans from Donald Trump through Robert F. Kennedy as similarly extreme -- only rating Mitt Romney, Susan Collins, and George W. Bush as meaningfully more moderate -- while Republicans perceive more variation among these Republicans.
There’s pasta in the pantry and jarred sauce in the refrigerator. So what compels Kiely Reedy to keep having spaghetti with marinara delivered from the restaurant down the street, for several times the cost of cooking the dish herself? It’s not that the restaurant dish is particularly good, she said. “It’s the instant gratification.”
“We are going to put huge emphasis on scoops,” Weiss continued of her plans. “Not scoops that expire minutes later. But investigative scoops. And, crucially, scoops of ideas. Scoops of explanation. This is where we can soar, and where we’ll be investing.” Per THR, she described CBS News as “the best-capitalized media startup in the world,” but added, “But startups aren’t for everyone. They’re places that move at a rapid speed. They experiment. They try new things. They sometimes create noise and, yes, bad press. If that’s not your bag, that’s ok. It’s a free country and I completely respect if you decide this is just not the right place at the right time for you.”
Zaid Jilani on Twitter: I don’t think Tucker is antisemitic but in his interview with Peter Brimelow he says there has never been a real antisemitic movement in America. Today America is not very antisemitic but in the past, Jews did face widespread discrimination and legal repression.
Me in 2010 wearing a “Tom Perriello U.S. Congress” shirt
the come and take it meme but it's kirkland formula
Fair enough. I still wonder what happens with those kids who are held back and are then tested a year later. I guess they improve on average a lot on their own, no matter what is done, during that year. Also, I’m not sure what’s the ultimate policy goal: maybe to improve reading and math ability (as measured by test scores) when kids leave the K-12 system? I think this would be one of the traditional reasons to hold students back a grade, so that they have a longer time to learn the material, which could be helpful even if the treatment is having no effect on their learning trajectories. Another way of putting this is that I don’t think it’s always clear what people are estimated here. The causal effect of the treatment would apply to individual students, but the outcomes are being compared in the aggregate, which is a challenge given that the treatment affects who’s being aggregated.
We did it Joe meme
pregame view from our nosebleed seats at the uva / virginia tech game
my daughter wearing a uva game day shirt
a cartoon of a mound meeting between the pitcher and catcher. the catcher says "strike him out"
a traffic sign on campus reading “Max Grade - 10%”
We apologise again for the fault in the subtitles. Those responsible for sacking the people who have just been sacked, have been sacked.
No No thank you
@MLFootball on X: BREAKING NEWS: PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYS THAT HE IS NOT OPPOSED TO HIRING FIVE #NFL HEAD COACHES AS US WAR GENERALS. “We get best 4-5 coaches, put in room. Like war, it’s strategy. Attack; angle of attack. Some coaches would make Great War generals”
Larry Summers on U.S. economic outlook: 33% odds of stagflation 33% odds of recession 33% rapid growth, no surge in inflation
three QTs in a row of jokes responding to the sandwich guy getting acquitted: - if it wasn't on rye, can't be that guy - twelve hungry men - glory glory hoagie threw ya
@zoomer_doomer_ on X: I think people are underestimating just how much her endorsement in the 2028 primaries will matter [picture of Jennifer Welch]
The OUE’s 2023 Report on Grading catalogued the various efforts other colleges have made to alter grading practices. It was not an inspiring list. Yale tried raising awareness, circulating data about grades in the hopes that this would influence faculty practices. Grades stayed high. Cornell and Dartmouth tried adding more information, publishing median course grades on student transcripts in the hopes that this would encourage students to take more demanding courses. Only the most dedicated students did so. Finally, Princeton and Wellesley tried hard limits, capping the number of A grades that could be awarded in a single course. Within ten years, the faculty at both colleges voted to lift the caps. This history might seem to suggest that grading is an insoluble problem; what it really shows is that grading is a problem too complex to admit a single solution. Our approach bears that in mind. We are trying awareness raising, information sharing, and capping A+s all at the same time, and we are doing more than that as well. By reducing the pressures on grading, by altering the incentives, and by deciding to act collectively to solve the collective action problem, we can restore our grading to what it was before the dramatic changes of recent years.
To give ourselves the best chance to win, we recommend the following changes to our approach. Democrats need to: Focus our policy agenda and our messaging on an economic program centered on lowering costs, growing the economy, creating jobs, and expanding the social safety net. Advocate for popular economic policies (e.g., expanding prescription drug price negotiation, making the wealthy pay their fair share in taxes, raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour) rather than unpopular economic policies (e.g., student loan forgiveness, electric vehicle subsidies, Medicare for All). Convince voters that we share their priorities by focusing more on issues voters do not think our party prioritizes highly enough (the economy, the cost of living, health care, border security, public safety), and focusing less on issues voters think we place too much emphasis on (climate change, democracy, abortion, identity and cultural issues). Moderate our positions where our agenda is unpopular, including on issues like immigration, public safety, energy production, and some identity and cultural issues. Embrace a substantive and rhetorical critique of the outsized political and economic influence of lobbyists, corporations, and the ultra-wealthy, while keeping two considerations in mind: First, voters' frustrations with the status quo are not the same as a desire for socialism. And second, criticizing the status quo is a complement to advocating for popular policies on the issues that matter most to the American people, not a substitute.
So you have no concern, even to this day, that Joe Biden could serve as President through January, 2029? I did not see anything that would’ve given me concern. But you watched TV like the rest of us, right?
you're telling me this for the first time meme
Talladega Nights script except Ricky: “With all due respect, Mr. Dennit, I had no idea you’d gotten experimental surgery to have your balls removed.” Dennit: “What did you just say to me?” Ricky: “What? I said with all due respect!” Dennit: “Just because you say that doesn’t mean you get to say whatever you want to say to me!” Ricky: “It sure as hell does!” Dennit: “No, it doesn’t-” Ricky: “It’s in the Geneva Conventions, look it up!”