J贸n Steinsson 馃椊

@jonsteinsson.bsky.social

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Economics professor at UC Berkeley. https://eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/

A Bayesian Assessment of the Origins of COVID-19 using Spatiotemporal and Zoonotic Data Andrew T. Levin #33428 Abstract: This paper uses Bayesian methods in conjunction with spatiotemporal and zoonotic data to evaluate the odds ratio for two hypotheses regarding the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic, namely, an accidental laboratory leak of a chimera virus or the transmission of a natural virus from an infected wildlife mammal. The overall Bayes factor is decomposed into 4 components: (1) the odds that the outbreak would occur in the People鈥檚 Republic of China (PRC); (2) the odds that the outbreak would occur in Wuhan, conditional on its location in PRC; (3) the odds of observing the spatiotemporal pattern of confirmed COVID-19 cases with no known link to the specific wholesale market where wildlife mammals were being sold, conditional on the outbreak taking place in Wuhan; and (4) the odds of observing the spatiotemporal pattern of confirmed vendor cases at that market, conditional on the outbreak taking place in Wuhan. These four conditional Bayes factors are estimated as 2.3:1, 20:1, 27:1, ! and 12:1, respectively, and hence the overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak. This conclusion is robust to alternative specifications of the detailed statistical analysis.
Capital-asset ratio of national banks in the United States from 1863-2021. Started off around 35%. Fell gradually to less than 10% after WWII. Has been inching up since 1983. But still only around 15% in 2021.