John Barton

@jpbarton.bsky.social

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Viruses, evolution, immunity, statistical physics | https://bartonlab.github.io

Inferred net changes in transmission for the SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha, Delta, and Omicron as they emerged, using data from Great Britain and South Africa. The bottom row of plots shows the local frequency of those variants over time, and the top row shows the inferred change in transmission as a function of time. Even when the variants are circulating at low frequencies among humans, they are inferred to have substantial increases in transmission.
A map of the inferred effects of SARS-CoV-2 mutations on the transmission of the virus. Most mutations inferred to strongly increase transmission cluster in the Spike protein, but a few are found in other proteins. Mutations inferred to substantially harm viral transmission are rare.