Jonas Schöley @jschoeley.com · Jul 3 Excess death modeling suggests a huge excess during the heatwave followed by a persistent moderate death deficit in the following fall and winter.
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I use a simple heuristic to estimate the displacement matrix whereby I proportionally distribute all deficit to the excess time points. Other and better solutions are possible. The resulting model is one, where the observed deaths are expressed as expected deaths re-shuffled in time.