Kevin Pelton

@kpelton.bsky.social

50368 Followers 424 Following

Assistant GM for Connecticut Sun (future Houston Comets). Using numbers to learn about the game.

Who might have the tools to do that? Over the course of the season, just three teams have on average met all four established criteria. One of them, alas, is Oklahoma City itself. The other two are potential Thunder playoff foes. The Minnesota Timberwolves lost last season's conference finals in five games but did hand Oklahoma City its single worst loss of the past two years: A 143-101 Game 3 win. They also split the 2024-25 regular season series. The Thunder's 113-105 win over Minnesota last month was a one-point game with 1:02 left.
Blazers-Spurs tipoff
2025-26 NBA wins above replacement player (WARP) leaders: 1. Luka Doncic, LAL (.78) 2. Stephen Curry, GSW (.78) 3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC (.72) 4. Victor Wembanyama, SAS (.66) 5. Donovan Mitchell, CLE (.49) 6. Jimmy Butler III, GSW (.48) 7. Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (.44) 8. Kyshawn George, WAS (.43) 9. RJ Barrett, TOR (.43) 10. Austin Reaves, LAL (.40)
Note, this is not my prediction (or ESPN's) of how this season will unfold. The outcomes are produced at random via simulation, and everything else, including player stats, takes creative license.
Tipoff of Aces-Fever
Yang Hansen signs autographs
Honestly, I don't really want to answer any questions today. I just want to say this one thing -- I wrote it down. This season was really hard for me. The biggest thing for me, the feedback I've gotten from my friends, family is that a lot of people think I'm not healthy. I was available for 40-ish of the games this year. I was completely healthy. If you asked me this time last year if I would make it through an entire WNBA season, I wasn't sure. So that's all for this availability time. I don't have anything to say about this season. I don't have anything to say about basketball, nothing. I just want everyone to know that I'm healthy. I feel great. The fact that I was able to show up every day as my best self and do everything I could to earn time on this court was a win for me. I just don't think I was given the opportunity I deserved here and I feel like I have so much basketball left to play. If that's here, if that's somewhere else, I don't know, but I just want to reiterate the fact that I'm healthy. I hate the fact that so many people think I'm not and I'm a liability and I can't make it through a season because I worked my ass off to get back to this level, to be able to compete at this level and to show up every day. For me to get that feedback all year long was very frustrating, so I just want to use this availability time to just assure everybody that I'm good. I feel amazing. This is the best my body has felt in two years and moving forward I hope that I can show everybody the type of player that I was before I got sick and the player that I strive to be in the future because I work really hard at that. I appreciate you guys for being here and listening and giving me a platform for this, but that is literally all I have to say about this season.
Turner's defensive upside isn't quite as high as Lopez's. He topped out at fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting, where Lopez was second in 2022-23. But Turner was often asked to serve as the only rim protector for the Pacers before Pascal Siakam's arrival. He has never played with a secondary defender as strong as Antetokounmpo. And opponents shot slightly better against the slowing Lopez inside five feet last year, per GeniusIQ tracking on NBA Advanced Stats, than they did against Turner. Certainly, the contrast between Lopez and Turner was on full display when the two centers met in the first round of the playoffs. Turner averaged 16.8 PPG and 2.2 BPG as Indiana won the series in five games, part of a strong postseason run. Lopez totaled just eight points and one block in the final three games against the Pacers, yielding his starting job to backup Bobby Portis for what proved to be Lopez's final game in Milwaukee.
The external doubt hasn't stopped pouring in since Myles Turner announced that he was signing with the Milwaukee Bucks. Plenty of outsiders don't think the fit will work, even taking it as far as to make a few bold claims. ESPN's Kevin Pelton is among them, saying "Turner's defensive upside isn't quite as high as [Brook} Lopez's." Given Turner's defensive pedigree, that's outrageous.
2025 Playoffs Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP): 1. Kelsey Mitchell, IND (.6) 2. Jackie Young, LVA (.6) 3. A'ja Wilson, LVA (.5) 4. Natasha Cloud, NYL (.4) 5. Dominique Malonga, SEA (.4) 6. Naz Hillmon, ATL (.4) 7. Jewell Loyd, LVA (.3) 8. Breanna Stewart, NYL (.3) 9. DeWanna Bonner, PHX (.3) 10. NaLyssa Smith, LVA (.3)
Rank/Player/Offense/Defense/Total (Value) 1. A'ja Wilson: 5.0/2.3/3.6 (9.0) 2. Napheesa Collier: 5.0/1.9/3.4 (7.4) 3. Allisha Gray: 3.7/-0.3/1.7 (6.9) 4. Jackie Young: 3.7/0.2/1.9 (6.6) 5. Nneka Ogwumike: 2.7/0.6/1.6 (6.3) 6. Alyssa Thomas: 2.2/1.3/1.8 (5.9) 7. Veronica Burton: 2.2/0.8/1.5 (5.6) 8. Aliyah Boston: 2.4/0.4/1.4 (5.6) 9. Kelsey Mitchell: 3.7/-1.2/1.3 (5.6) 10. Dearica Hamby: 2.8/-0.2/1.3 (5.6) 11. Rhyne Howard: 3.2/0.2/1.7 (5.4) 12. Sabrina Ionescu: 2.9/0.3/1.6 (5.4) 13. Skylar Diggins: 2.0/0.4/1.2 (5.3) 14. Brionna Jones: 2.4/0.5/1.4 (5.1) 15. Gabby Williams: 0.1/1.7/0.9 (4.8) 16. Courtney Williams: 1.3/0.9/1.1 (4.8) 17. Paige Bueckers: 3.0/-0.5/1.3 (4.8) 18. Breanna Stewart: 2.0/1.8/1.9 (4.7) 19. Kayla McBride: 2.2/0.1/1.2 (4.6) 20. Alanna Smith: 1.2/1.3/1.2 (4.4)
Most WNBA playoff appearances by franchise LAS: 20/29 (69%) NYL: 20/29 (69%) SEA: 20/26 (77%) PHX: 19/29 (66%) CON: 17/27 (63%) LVA: 16/29 (55%) MIN: 16/27 (59%) IND: 15/26 (58%) WAS: 15/28 (54%) DAL: 14/28 (50%) ATL: 11/18 (61%) CHI: 9/20 (45%) HOU: 9/12 (75%) SAC: 9/13 (69%) CHA: 6/10 (60%) CLE: 4/7 (57%) GSV: 1/1 (100%) MIA: 1/3 (33%) POR: 0/3 (0%)
Sky attempted 10 of 13 second-quarter shots in the paint, all within five feet.
“He brings a swagger,’’ the source said to The Athletic. “If Tom was the owner last year, he would have been trying to get Luka (Dončić). He would be like, ‘Why should the Lakers have him?’’’
1. MIN .875 (21-3) 2. ATL .783 (18-5) 3. IND .630 (17-10) 4. SEA .625 (15-9) 5. PHX .600 (15-10) 6. NYL .586 (17-12) 7. GSV .520 (13-12) 8. LVA .500 (13-13) 9. WAS .400 (8-12) 10. LAS .385 (10-16) 11. DAL .269 (7-19) 12. CHI .250 (7-21) 13. CON .172 (5-24)
Other WNBA players, most notably A'ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces, have been immortalized with statues at their college homes. Bird is the first outside a WNBA arena ...
Empty Rogers Arena with WNBA court being dismantled
WNBA single-game scoring by age. Dominique Malonga is now the youngest player to score at least 20 points. Diana Taurasi was the oldest.
"Freedom of speech" meme
Cooper Flagg shoots a free throw
1. Napheesa Collier, MIN (0.35) 2. A'ja Wilson, LVA (0.28) 3. Kayla McBride, MIN (0.27) 4. Breanna Stewart, NYL (0.26) 5. Azurá Stevens, LAS (0.23) 6. Allisha Gray, ATL (0.23) 7. Sabrina Ionescu, NYL (0.22) 8. Jonquel Jones, NYL (0.22) 9. Aliyah Boston, IND (0.21) 10. Gabby Williams, SEA (0.20)
1. Napheesa Collier, MIN (0.35) 2. A'ja Wilson, LVA (0.34) 3. Breanna Stewart, NYL (0.26) 4. Allisha Gray, ATL (0.26) 5. Aliyah Boston, IND (0.25) 6. Jonquel Jones, NYL (0.25) 7. Sabrina Ionescu, NYL (0.24) 8. Caitlin Clark, IND (0.21) 9. Satou Sabally, PHX (0.21) 10. Natasha Cloud, NYL (0.21)
Storm-Mercury pregame
Biggest NBA Playoff Upsets since 2000 (via Sports OddsHistory.com) 2007: Golden State Warriors over Dallas Mavericks (Round 1) +1200 2012: Philadelphia 76ers over Chicago Bulls (Round 1) +900 2020: Denver Nuggets over LA Clippers (Conf Semis) +850 2023: Miami Heat over Milwaukee Bucks (Round 1) +750 2025: New York Knicks over Boston Celtics (Conf Semis) +550 2009: Orlando Magic over Cleveland Cavaliers (Conf Finals) +550 2004: Detroit Pistons over Los Angeles Lakers (NBA Finals) +500 2025: Indiana Pacers over Cleveland Cavaliers (Conf Semis) +425 2011: Atlanta Hawks over Orlando Magic (Round 1) +425
1. New York (32.6 expected wins) 2. Las Vegas (30.7) 3. Minnesota (29.7) 4. Atlanta (27.5) 5. Indiana (26.5) 6. Seattle (22.4) 7. Dallas (21.6) 8. Phoenix (19.2) 9. Chicago (19.2) 10. Los Angeles (16.8) 11. Washington (14.5) 12. Golden State (14.0) 13. Connecticut (11.4)
Thunder still ahead of pace of NBA's all-time leaders in cumulative point differential.
Offensive rating relative to the season-long average over the NBA season. Starts around average, dips to about 98% in December before rising to about 102% in April.
Player performance over the 2024-25 NBA season. The average increases steadily from about .9 at the start of the season to around 1.1 near the end.
*Comic Sans font* Some people think they should go to heaven but NOT have to die to get there. Sorry, but that's simply not how it works.
Paige Bueckers spotlighted
Tipoff between Ayoka Lee and Rayah Marshall
Paige Bueckers at the podium with Geno Auriemma
3-point attempt rates by team from 2011-12 through 2024-25. The Daryl Morey-era Houston Rockets and this season's Boston Celtics are notable outliers in terms of shooting more 3s than anyone else.
"Welcome to Hooptown USA" sign at the Spokane airport
Photo with Slick Watts and Shellie Hart.
Marcus Camby (2004-05) Tony Allen (2010-11) Andrew Bogu (2014-15) Tony Allen (2016-17) Danny Green (2016-17) Dejounte Murray (2017-18) Matisse Thybulle (2021-22) Alex Caruso (2022-23)
Tobias Harris: "All-Defensive team loading"
I'm not saying teams should start tanking now to draft Luka Doncic in 2018 but I'm not saying they shouldn't.
If the Physician determines that a player is not completely and unqualifiedly fit to perform all basketball-related services required of the player under this Agreement or her Standard Player Contract as a result of an Other Team/Entity Basketball Injury, the Team shall have the right, in its sole discretion, to suspend such player without pay: (i) until such time as, in the judgment of the Physician, the player is in sufficiently good physical condition to play skilled basketball; or (ii) if the Physician determines that such lack of fitness will last beyond the first forty-two (42) days of the Season (or beyond the first twenty-eight (28) days of the Season in the event that such lack of fitness is due at least in part to a “Timed Medical Treatment”), for the entire upcoming Season.
The Seattle Storm today signed 2023 Sixth Player of the Year and 12-year veteran Alysha Clark. Clark played in Seattle for the first nine years of her career, where she won two WNBA championships with the Storm. Per team policy, terms of the deal were not disclosed. “Seattle loves Alysha Clark! It isn’t often a team has the chance to return a two-time Storm champion and three-time WNBA champion to the squad. This was a special opportunity to do just that,” said Seattle Storm GM Talisa Rhea. “AC is the ultimate competitor and has tremendous impact on the court and off. We can’t wait for that to return to the Emerald City.” “I’m really excited about coming back to Seattle where it all started! The organization that gave me a chance in this league. The fans that embraced me from day 1. The city that holds so many memories for me and my family. I can’t wait to get on the court with my teammates and get to work. Seattle, WE’RE BAAAAAACK,” said Clark.
Kelsey Plum's retired No. 10 jersey will be unveiled in the Hec Ed rafters at halftime.
Her current team can, however, match any offer she receivers. But Kevin Pelton of ESPN asserted that the Sun need to match "the 82,754 qualifying offer" or she becomes a restricted free agent.
As the top restricted free agent available, Carrington is in an interesting spot. We haven't seen a restricted free agent sign an offer sheet since 2020, and any deal with another team must be for a minimum of two years -- which would prevent Carrington from getting a big raise in 2026 when the cap jumps. Still, such a deal could be worth signing if the Sun aren't willing to improve the $82,754 qualifying offer they must tender to make her a restricted free agent. That could provide leverage for Carrington to get more on a one-year deal with Connecticut or negotiate a sign-and-trade elsewhere.
Add that Sabally is easily the youngest player in the top 10 free agents and Dallas could get tantalizing trade offers if she prefers to play elsewhere.
1. Franz Wagner, ORL (1.2) 2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC (1.1) 3. Anthony Davis, LAL (.9) 4. De'Aaron Fox, SAC (.9) 5. Devin Booker, PHX (.9) 6. Paul George, PHI (.9) 7. Jared McCain, PHI (.8) 8. Damian Lillard, MIL (.8) 9. Luka Doncic, DAL (.8) 10. Cameron Johnson, BKN (.8)
ESPN Daily clip on WNBA expansion draft philosophy.
Victor Wembanyama's made 3s over three-game spans throughout his career. He'd never made more than 10 over a three-game span before 14 from 11/7-11/11 and now 20 from 11/9-tonight.
The addition of Leonie Fiebich is the biggest reason to believe in this year's Liberty when last year's team fell short.
1. A'ja Wilson, LVA (12.3) 2. Breanna Stewart, NYL (7.9) 3. Napheesa Collier, MIN (7.9) 4. Jonquel Jones, NYL (6.2) 5. DeWanna Bonner, CON (5.7) 6. Caitlin Clark, IND (5.7) 7. Nneka Ogwumike, SEA (5.6) 8. Kayla McBride, MIN (5.4) 9. Arike Ogunbowale, DAL (5.2) 10. Ezi Magbegor, SEA (5.2)
1. A'ja Wilson, LVA (11.6) 2. Breanna Stewart, NYL (7.6) 3. Napheesa Collier, MIN (7.4) 4. Kayla McBride, MIN (5.8) 5. Jonquel Jones, NYL (5.6) 6. Nneka Ogwumike, SEA (5.5) 7. DeWanna Bonner, CON (5.2) 8. Caitlin Clark, IND (5.1) 9. Ezi Magbegor, SEA (5.0) 10. Sabrina Ionescu, NYL (4.9) 11. Alanna Smith, MIN (4.8) 12. Arike Ogunbowale, DAL (4.7) 13. Jewell Loyd, SEA (4.2) 14. Alyssa Thomas, CON (4.2) 15. Bridget Carleton, MIN (4.2) 16. Brittney Griner, PHO (4.0) 17. Jackie Young, LVA (3.8) 18. Brionna Jones, CON (3.7) 19. Rhyne Howard, ATL (3.5) 20. Allisha Gray, ATL (3.2)
1. A'ja Wilson, LVA (0.31) 2. Napheesa Collier, MIN (0.27) 3. Kelsey Mitchell, IND (0.26) 4. Breanna Stewart, NYL (0.19) 5. Tina Charles, ATL (0.17) 6. Caitlin Clark, IND (0.14) 7. Nneka Ogwumike, SEA (0.13) 8. Bridget Carleton, MIN (0.13) 9. Lexie Hull, IND (0.13) 10. Kamilla Cardoso, CHI (0.13)
1. A'ja Wilson, LVA (9.4) 2. Breanna Stewart, NYL (6.1) 3. Napheesa Collier, MIN (5.9) 4. Kayla McBride, MIN (5.3) 5. Jonquel Jones, NYL (5.1) 6. Ezi Magbegor, SEA (4.9) 7. DeWanna Bonner, CON (4.8) 8. Sabrina Ionescu, NYL (4.7) 9. Nneka Ogwumike, SEA (4.6) 10. Alanna Smith, MIN (4.3) 11. Caitlin Clark, IND (3.9) 12. Alyssa Thomas, CON (3.7) 13. Brionna Jones, CON (3.6) 14. Brittney Griner, PHO (3.4) 15. Rhyne Howard, ATL (3.4) 16. Jewell Loyd, SEA (3.3) 17. Jackie Young, LVA (3.3) 18. Arike Ogunbowale, DAL (3.2) 19. Angel Reese, CHI (2.8) 20. Bridget Carleton, MIN (2.8)
1. A'ja Wilson, LVA (6.7) 2. Napheesa Collier, MIN (5.1) 3. Breanna Stewart, NYL (4.9) 4. Ezi Magbegor, SEA (4.5) 5. Kayla McBride, MIN (4.2) 6. Jonquel Jones, NYL (4.1) 7. DeWanna Bonner, CON (3.8) 8. Alanna Smith, MIN (3.7) 9. Alyssa Thomas, CON (3.5) 10. Nneka Ogwumike, SEA (3.4) 11. Jackie Young, LVA (3.1) 12. Brionna Jones, CON (3.1) 13. Arike Ogunbowale, DAL (3.1) 14. Sabrina Ionescu, NYL (3.0) 15. Jewell Loyd, SEA (3.0) 16. Angel Reese, CHI (2.8) 17. Rhyne Howard, ATL (2.7) 18. Caitlin Clark, IND (2.2) 19. Bridget Carleton, MIN (2.1) 20. Kelsey Plum, LVA (2.1)