Werner Krause

@krausewe.bsky.social

2565 Followers 1025 Following

Political Scientist @unipotsdam.bsky.social - Comparative Politics, Political Parties & Voting Behavior - Quantitative Methods & R Prev. Uni Vienna, Humboldt Uni & WZB Berlin https://krausewe.github.io

Two side-by-side newspaper vignettes showing Austrian election poll results. The KPÖ polls at 3.5%, just below the 4% threshold. The left vignette displays bars with margin-of-error ranges and a headline conveying uncertainty. The right vignette shows plain bars without margin-of-error ranges and a headline stating the KPÖ will not enter parliament.

Three-panel regression discontinuity figure. Panel A shows a scatter plot with polynomial fit revealing a sharp jump in threshold-crossing probability at the cut-off point, with an RD estimate of 0.459. Panel B shows the estimate remains stable across different bandwidth sizes. Panel C shows placebo estimates clustered near zero for alternative cut-off points, confirming the validity of the design.

Image showing the abstract of the paper "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth" by Werner Krause and Christina Gahn, published in the Journal of Politics. The abstract describes a quasi-experimental study across 25 countries finding that parties polling just below electoral thresholds are approximately 45 percentage points less likely to clear them, and that this effect diminishes when voters are informed about polling uncertainty.