Kyle Meng @kylemeng.com · Jun 24

Look at iron/steel. This scatter from my upcoming paper plots country GHG intensities vs U.S. import penetration for iron/steel. PRC imports serves <2% of U.S. consumption. And PRC consumes 94% of own iron/steel. So trade too little for U.S. carbon tariffs to have much leverage. 3/

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Kyle Meng · Jun 24

What about US govt revenue? Authors' cite their calculation that FPFA raises $198B over 5 years. But their accounting exercise makes a crucial assumption: trade volumes don't change under carbon tariffs. FPFA increase tariffs on some goods by 100%! Will imports really not fall? 4/