Aaron K

@ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social

292 Followers 208 Following

Stars fan, data fan, handle to the tune of "Radio Free Europe" He/him https://puckovertheglass.substack.com/

Goalie metric z-score correlation with next season GAR/FA z-score, 2018-19 to 2022-23
misses to the glove side are frozen 6.8% of the time compared to 1.2% for misses to the blocker side
Summary of logistic regression run in R
Summary of logistic regression run in R
Summary of logistic regression run in R
Summary of logistic regression run in R
Summary of logistic regression run in R
a bag of cucumber flavored lays potato chips
Bar chart of 2026-27 estimated net travel effects on NHL team xG looking at travel between games and rest between games. In descending order: Anaheim, Calgary, Detroit, Chicago, Nashville, New Jersey, Los Angeles, Washington, St Louis, Montreal, Tampa Bay, Colorado, Vancouver, Vegas, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Columbus, Dallas (change to negative impact after this), San Jose, Ottawa, Utah, Seattle, Edmonton, Carolina, Minnesota, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Florida, Winnipeg, Pittsburgh, Toronto, and Boston.
bar chart of games travelled to in the 2026-27 season ranging from 55 to 65
ENDLESS PAIN
line chart of share of 5-on-5 missed shots frozen by the goalie from the 2019-20 season to the 2025-26 season. The shar is fairly steady from 2019-20 to 2022-23 before increasing in each of the three most recent seasons. OZ shots from above the goal line only, short and failed bank attempt misses excluded
My cat sitting upright on a bed like a human looking at the camera with one front paw resting on her lap
shave of 5v5 unblocked shots determined to be rush shots from play by play vs share of 5v5 shots tagged as rush shots by AllThreeZones using 8 second context window with "short" shots removed for play by play
rush fenwick shooting percentage by preceding event, 5v5
Share of recorded events followed by unblocked rush shot, 5v5
share of 5v5 rush shots by time elapsed since event outside of OZ
share of 5v5 shots off oz faceoffs by time elapsed since faceoff
5v5 share of shots off turnovers by time elapsed since turnover by season
share of 5v5 non-shot events by event team zone, 2021-22 to 2025-26 seaons
finishing vs attempt rate scatter plot
finishing vs usage scatter plot
line chart of expected goal model intercept from 2022-23 to 2025-26
Line charts showing change in expected goal model coefficients for shot types (slapshot, tip, backhand/other), rush shots (is rush, velocity, rush time elapsed), rebounds (is follow-up, is reached goalie follow-up, is own follow-up, angle change velocity, follow-up time elapsed), OZ faceoffs (is off faceoff, faceoff time elapsed), and turnovers (is off turnover, is OZ turnover, turnover time elapsed)
Line chart of cumulative Hart Trophy vote percentage since 2017-18
A very crude layout
bar chart showing total xSPAR drafted by team, total xSPAR passed on, and total xSPAR passed on in the next 10 picks from 2016-2019
Shaq and The General
Line charts showing faceoff effect on 5 on 5 corsi for/60 by zone and result for the 2022-23 to 2025-26 NHL regular seasons
ned flanders with a speech bubble
Heat maps of distribution of estimated coordinates for blocked shot origins vs distribution of coordinates for fenwick origins at 5 on 5 broken down by shot type and "point" shots (wrist, snap, slap shots taken by a defenseman)
Heat maps of blocked shots (red) overlaying unblocked shots (blue) at 5v4 for the 2020-21 to 2025-26 seasons
Heat maps of blocked shots (red) overlaying unblocked shots (blue) at 5v5 for the 2020-21 to 2025-26 seasons
Line charts showing regression coefficients for off rush, rush elapsed time, follow-up shot, follow-up shots on shots that reached the goalie, own follow-ups, follow-up elapsed time, off offensive zone faceoffs, off oz faceoff wins, and faceoff elapsed time
Line charts showing share of shot attempts taken off OZ faceoff wins/losses broken down by team strength (EV, PP, SH) and goal/non-goal attempts
Line charts for share of shot attempts that are off the rush, off an offensive zone faceoff, are follow up shots, from behind the net, reach the goaltender, and that are frozen if they reach the goaltender broken down by goal/not goal and shooting team strength state (EV, PP, SH)
line chart of fenwick shooting percentage on shots deemed a "defensive deflection." The line is roughly 15-20% for the 2023-24 and 2024-25, but jumps to almost 100% for the 2025-26 season
dot chart of change in SPAR/xSPAR rates from age 22-23 seasons to age 24 season against change from age 24 season to age 25 season showing a strong negative correlation between the two
Line chart showing change in Thomas Harley's 18+ MPH and 20+ MPH burst rate from 2024-25 to 2025-26
Line chart showing Thomas Harley's on/off splits for Corsi differential and xG differential, score adjusted at 5v5
line chart showing thomas harley's drop in SPAR/xSPAR rate from ages 22 and 23 to age 24
line chart of average shooting distance by year broken down by seconds since an event outside the offensive zone
Line chart of fenwick shooting percentage by season broken down by seconds since a recorded event outside the offensive zone
heat map of 5-on-5 goals scored by since zone entry derived from the play by play versus seconds since zone entry derived from edge animations
line chart of cumulative share of power play goals scored within 7 seconds of entering the offensive zone